Why the Cubs struggles this season can be traced back to the rebuild, and why they should approach this offseason with controlled abandon

2019 has been a frustrating season for the Chicago Cubs organization and fans. A complete inability to win on the road, coupled with mounting injuries to key personnel, and under-performing players have left many scratching their heads and searching for someone to blame.

Much of this blame has been directed at ownership (for not allowing more spending), management (for not signing the right players or signing the wrong ones), or at Joe Maddon (for not doing a better job of handling and motivating the roster). While some of these criticisms are well-earned, its not such a simple blame game. In reality, there is a much larger, underlying problem that is not the fault of any of the aforementioned persons, but is more just an unfortunate byproduct of past decisions.

There are two main issues that work hand-in-hand with one another, and they date back to the rebuild.

During the rebuild, the Cubs put a prime focus on acquiring young bats to populate the farm system. Through the draft, trades, and IFA signings, they were able to acquire some tier 1 talent. However, while these players were considered high potential, many of them were of similar archetypes (big time power coupled with high strikeouts). Fast forward to 2019, the Cubs lineup can mash, but they struggle to get on base consistently and have trouble getting hits when they need them. This approach wasn't a bad idea, especially since some of the prospects developing during this time were thought to eventually develop above average hit tools.

But unfortunately, that's not really how it all panned out.

Prospects like Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ still developed into solid players, but their hit tools never quite came around as expected. Coupled with someone like Albert Almora (who has never quite developed into the hitter that people had hoped), the Cubs have been left with a desperate need for more contact driven hitters (especially near the top of the order).

This hitter-heavy approach also had a secondary drawback to it:

Lack of an adequate in-house developed pitching pipeline.

From 2012-2017, here is the full list of the names inside the Cubs top 10 prospects that were pitchers:

Arodys Vizcaino (traded to Atl for Tommy La Stella)
Trey McNutt (never appeared in Majors)
Pierce Johnson (out of baseball)
Carl Edwards Jr. (traded to SD for Brad Wieck)
Duane Underwood (currently in AAA Iowa)
Dylan Cease (traded to CHW for Jose Quintana)
Oscar De La Cruz (currently in AA Tennessee)
Trevor Clifton (currently in AAA Iowa)
Jose Albertos (currently in A South Bend, forgotten how to throw strikes)
Adbert Alzolay (currently in AAA Iowa)
Alex Lange (traded to Det fro Nicholas Castellanos)
Brendon Little (currently in A+ Myrtle Beach)
Thomas Hatch (traded to Tor for David Phelps)
Justin Steele (currently in AA Tennessee)

This list not only highlights the lack of pitching depth the Cubs farm system had during this time period, but also the lack of quality arms. Such a void in this department forced the Cubs to seek external solutions to their pitching problems since 2016. This has also led to some of the financial constraints as well as the organization signed players like Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow to try and plug holes in the roster.

Now all of that being said, the Cubs have since addressed their pitching deficiencies on the farm, and that is something that could pay dividends in the coming seasons. There is still a lack of good contact hitters in the system, but there is some promise currently developing. Though, these both should continue to be addressed in the near future.

In reality, the Cubs struggles in 2019 (and 2018 really) are just a byproduct of the rebuild and winning the title in 2016. Certain areas may not have been focused on as much as they should have been, and other areas were made weaker by aggressive trades (see Aroldis Chapman and Jose Quintana deals; note: I am not re-litigating either of those trades. I actually still approve of both of them, but their effects can be felt).

So what should the Cubs do this offseason? Well I don't think any drastic changes are in order. The roster doesn't need to be blown up and we don't need 15 new faces showing up to Wrigley next season. But I do believe the Cubs need a slight change of course with their roster approach.

Currently, the roster is nothing more than the sum of its parts (actually even less so in some instances). The biggest problem facing the current 40-man roster is too much redundancy. For example, Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber have very similar hitting profiles as big time power bats with lots of Ks and BBs. By themselves, that's not a bad approach in this day and age. But combined with a rest of a lineup that is almost identical to that? Now that's a problem.

The same goes for the bullpen and rotation: plenty of guys who can get outs and perform admirably, but not a whole lot of power arms/guys with swing and miss stuff. Hence some (but not all) of the pitching woes and inconsistency observed during the last two seasons.

This offseason, the Cubs should find a way to reduce the redundancy on their roster by trading away duplicitous players for controllable pieces who fill specific roles (like top of the order, contact driven hitters with a little bit of pop). There are definitely deals that could be made with different teams who have what the Cubs need, and themselves want what the Cubs are selling. I plan on doing a much bigger piece on the offseason as a whole when it comes time, so I won't get into many specifics right now.

In the meantime, there's still plenty of baseball left to be played. I firmly believe the Cubs have enough talent on paper to make a playoff run, but the team this season hasn't been performing like it. We shall see how things pan out in the coming weeks.

Why Yu Darvish is actually having a dominant season



Yu Darvish’s first season in Cubbie blue certainly didn’t go to plan. After signing a 6-year $126M contract during the 2017-2018 offseason, Darvish stumbled out of the gate in 2018 (8 starts with a 4.95 ERA) before landing in the IL with an elbow issue. When he finally looked like he may get back to Wrigley, Darvish left one of his rehab starts with pain and was subsequently shut down for the rest of the season.

Many fans wanted to jump ship on Darvish following an extremely disappointing first season. That list only grew through his first 8 starts of 2019 (5.40 ERA 1 QS 8.10 BB/9). Others, like myself, urged fans to stay the course. Darvish had a long history of success in Texas (a ballpark notoriously hard to pitch in) and some things just didn’t seem right. His walk rate and fastball command were not what they once were. Had he diminished as a pitcher? Was he still injured? Was he not locked in mentally?

Or maybe...

Was he just a bit rusty?

Coming off 186 innings and a WS run in 2017, Darvish only tossed 40 (injury-riddled) major league innings in 2018. For a guy who hadn’t thrown healthy major league innings since October 2017, it honestly isn’t surprising he struggled to find a rhythm early in 2019. Think that’s just an excuse? Check out what happened on May 15th:

In his 9th start of the season, Darvish went into Great American Ballpark (another hitter friendly park) and fanned 11 Reds in 5.1 IP. Best part:

He walked no one

In fact, he hasn’t really walked anyone since then. Since that May 15th start, Darvish’s walk rate is only 1.70 BB/9 (plummeting his season to only 3.48) while still maintaining a filthy 10.76 K/9. He has also started to work deeper into games (6+ IP in 12/16 starts, 6 QS) and is starting to look more like the pitcher everyone expected when he signed that large contract just a season and a half ago. 

While it might be tempting to look at his 4.06 ERA since that start against the Reds (and his 4.43 season ERA) and not be impressed, there’s one major consideration that needs to be taken:

His insane HR/9 rate. 

At 1.77 this season, Darvish’s rate is way above both league average and his career average. So what is causing this?

Well the simple answers would typically point to augmented fly ball or hard contact rates. But therein lies the rub with Darvish:

Both his fly ball rate (33.4%) and hard contact rate (29.6%) are below his career averages. In fact, he’s inducing more ground balls than ever before in his career (47.0%). 

Now with that being said, I will mention that when batters are hitting fly balls against Darvish, his hard contact rate is at a career high (39.6%). Welcome to baseball in 2019. 

Nonetheless, Darvish’s abnormally high HR/FB rate (23.4%, which is insane even for 2019) seems to indicate bad luck more than anything. To understand how well he’s actually been pitching, just take a look at his SIERA (an indicator of what a pitchers true ERA should be. For a good explanation see here) Since that start against the Reds, Darvish sits at a strong 3.37: indicating he’s firing on all cylinders. 

While results on the field are often all that matters, I do firmly believe that there is a lot to love about Yu Darvish’s season. He seems to be finding his groove in Cubbie blue in 2019, especially of late. If he can keep it up, he will certainly be a major asset come October. 

Midseason Cubs Top Prospects List (My First Ever)

This is my first ever Cubs top prospect list. I have been a lifelong fan of the Northsiders, but ever since the Hoyer/Epstein era began I've really started to follow propsects with more interest; especially in the last couple of years. It is fun to look at the guys in the system and dream about their potentials and future fits with the organization. It is also exciting to watch sleeper prospects explode out of nowhere and turn into perrenial All-Stars (see Willson Contreras).

Now what is the current state of the Cubs farm? Well despite appearances of futility (ranked 28th on Bleacher Report), I firmly believe the Cubs system is criminally underrated. The system is clearly different from the powerhouse that had been created during the rebuild; and yes, it is still lacking in upper echelon talent. But the pieces are all there right now and the Cubs should find their farm on the rise in the coming years.

Before getting into the individual rankings, here is just quick overview of the strengths/weakness of the current system:

 Strengths

• Right-handed pitching
• Middle infielders
• Catchers
• Power Arms

Weaknesses

• Advanced talent
• Power Bats
• Left-handed pitching 

One final note before I start with the names: I am not a fan of having older players in top prospects lists. For one, these players usually lack any additional projection, and I am a person who values potential very highly when making a list like this. Additionally, I find it extremely difficult to do 1:1 comparisons between older, advanced players and younger players who are merely evaluated based on the potential of their tools. For this reason, my top 35 list will not have any players age 25 and older on it. However, some players to keep an eye on that don't make the age cut are mentioned in brief at the end. Finally, there are a couple players that I do not feel like I have a good enough gauge on yet in order to rank them on this list, but I do feel like they are top prospects. This is predominantly players in the DSL who have not come stateside yet, but also can include recent draftees who just haven't played enough pro ball yet. These players are also mentioned at the end.

And now for the list. Enjoy!

1) Nico Hoerner Pos: SS Acq: 2018 Draft (1st) Age: 22 Level: AA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 12.8% K rate
• Best tool: Hit (60)

There really should be no arguments when discussing who is the Cubs top prospect. Nico is likely the system's best hitter by way of having good strike zone discipline and excellent bat to ball skills. Most scouts have rated his power to be slightly below average, but Nico still drives the ball well and finds the gaps with regularity. I think it is reasonable to expect 15 HR per year out of him, possibly 20 if he works on adding strength in the coming years. His most underrated tool is his speed, though he hasn't quite showcased it in his ability to steal bases yet. Whether or not that's just the Cubs protecting their top asset from additional injury risk (he's already missed quite a bit of time in his first year plus due to a couple of freak injuries) or he just hasn't developed the necessary instincts yet remains to be seen. Though he was never highly regarded as a defender coming out of college, Nico has performed adequately at SS during his brief pro career. Most scouts doubt his ability to stay at SS long term, and recently he has started to see time at 2B. The Cubs have also discussed getting him some work in CF. His athleticism allows him the ability to have versatility defensively, and if he keeps working on that it could be a huge help once he makes it to Wrigley.
 
2) Miguel Amaya Pos: C Acq: 2015 IFA (1.3M) Age: 20 Level: A+ ETA: 2022

• Key stat: 11.8% BB rate
• Best tool: Field (60) 

Amaya was one of the big prizes of the Cubs highly touted 2015 IFA class. Very early on scouts were raving about his advanced receiving abilities. As he has aged, his arm has caught up to the rest of his defense. While he lacks elite arm strength, Amaya is efficient at cutting down runners due to his quick release and pinpoint throws. In addition to his outstanding defense, Amaya has not disappointed at the plate. Last season as a 19 year old in his first taste of full season ball, Amaya slashed .288/.365/.500 in the first half before running out of gas in the second half. This season at high-A, he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on (.272/.343/.457 in the second half). He has excellent plate discipline and showcases some great contact rates for a 20 year old . He's also starting to let loose in the power department, and he has enough raw power to grade above average or even higher if he can hit the ball in the air more. He has kept checking all the necessary boxes that the Cubs want him to so he should keep progressing quickly, though don't expect the Cubs to push him too quickly. He could find himself as a top 50 prospect come season's end, and it should be fun to see him take on AA next season.

 
3) Brailyn Marquez Pos: LHP Acq: 2015 IFA (600K) Age: 20 Level: A+ ETA: 2022

•  Key stat: 11.86 K/9 in South Bend
• Best tool: Fastball (65)

If you were living under a rock on July 25th, its possible you may have missed what Brailyn Marquez did that day: 6IP 1H 14K on 71 pitches (53 strikes). Yes... you read that stat line correctly. Oh, and it gets better: he touched 100 mph on the gun in South Bend. And then he backed it up with 6 no hit innings (8K) in his next start. Those outings earned him a promotion from South Bend to Myrtle Beach and are just a taste of the upside that the flame-throwing lefty out of the Dominican Republic possesses. Brailyn has a high end fastball that frankly, I may be underrating. He backs it up with a power curve that has shown flashes of being a plus secondary. His change-up is still a work in progress, but at age 20 he still has time to develop it. The Cubs will handle him with care as he works to develop a strong third offering and to throw more consistent strikes (5.30 BB/9). Regardless, Marquez has produced strong results in his first taste of full season ball, due in large part to a 49.4% GB rate. If that continues and he is able to cut down on the walks, Marquez is likely to achieve his ace-like potential.


4) Brennen Davis Pos: CF Acq: 2018 Draft (2nd) Age: 19 Level: A ETA: 2022

•  Key stat: wRC+ 145
•  Best tool: Speed (65)

Davis is a former HS hoops star out of Arizona, but he decided to commit to baseball prior to the 2018 MLB draft. The Cubs took him knowing he was very raw, but they loved his tools and projection. His first taste of pro ball was a challenge, but he has since exploded after putting in a ton of work in the off-season. He has impressive raw power, but used to have to over-swing to tap into it. The Cubs have gotten him to cut down on his swing and this has greatly improved his contact rates. His plate discipline is adequate for now, but if he can continue to develop that aspect of his game he could be a very scary hitter. The dangerous part about Davis is he's a true five-tool player. His best tool his his speed which allows him to be a 20-30 SB threat once he gets his instincts down. Defensively, he also possesses plus arm strength and should make for strong defensive CF. Overall, it's very clear that Davis' commitment to baseball is paying early dividends and the Cubs have found a good one.

Side note: Please for the love of God stop hitting him in the hand with pitches

 
5) Adbert Alzolay Pos: RHP Acq: 2012 IFA (10K) Age: 24 Level: AAA ETA: 2019

•  Key stat: 2995 rpm curveball spin rate
• Best tool: Curveball (60)

If not for a lat injury that prematurely ended his season, Alzolay would have made his MLB debut in 2018 and could have found a spot in the Wrigley bullpen in 2019. After missing a chunk of time to start 2019 to finish recovering from his season ending injury, Alzolay returned to Iowa and began spitting fire. He earned himself a promotion to Chicago and had the prettiest debut (4IP 1ER 1H 2BB 5K) on June 20th. He then followed up that performance with a very respectable start against a potent Atlanta offense before getting shelled in Pittsburgh. He then returned to Iowa for three not so pretty starts, the third of which he left holding his dangling arm. That's where we all got nervous. But fortunately, it was a simple bicep strain and he has since returned to form. As you can see, the biggest concern with Alzolay is his health. He possesses the necessary tools to stay in the rotation and even sit near the top if his change-up can improve just a bit more. But concerns over durability cloud his future in the rotation. At the very least, Alzolay could be a leverage reliever who could pump the fastball in the upper 90s and finish hitters off with his filthy breaking ball.

6) Cole Roederer Pos: CF Acq: 2018 Draft (2nd) Age: 19 Level: A ETA: 2022

•  Key stat: 10 SBs
• Best tool: Hit (55)

Roederer absolutely feasted on rookie-ball pitching in his pro debut (.275/.354/.465) and impressed scouts and the Cubs very early on. The Cubs were so impressed that they opted to push him straight to full season ball in South Bend. However, he showed his age early on in the season as he ran into some trouble putting the ball in play and making solid contact. He has since rebounded (he hit for the cycle on June 25th) and is again showing all the tools that the scouts fell in love with. Roederer has very solid plate discipline and a smooth left-handed swing, so his current strikeout rates should improve with experience. Roederer's most underrated skill is his sneaky speed which plays up on the basepaths due to plus instincts. His offensive profile should fit nicely near the top of the order. He is an average defender in CF with decent instincts, but his lack of arm strength makes him more likely to profile as an every day LF long term.


7) Christopher Morel Pos: 3B Acq: 2015 IFA (800K) Age: 20 Level: A ETA: 2022

• Key stat: .183 ISO
• Best tool: Power (55)

Full disclosure: Christopher Morel is probably my favorite prospect in the entire system. He is an immensely talented and toolsy IF signed out the Dominican Republic in 2015. Morel was signed initially as a SS, but now exclusively mans the hot corner. He is bigger than he is listed (6'0" 140lbs), but still has a slight frame. However, he possesses natural power and he taps into it well. As fills out a bit more, 20-25 HRs could be an achievable number for him. Scouts also love his defensive makeup as he grades out as above average with both the glove and with his arm. His speed is a bit underrated which should allow him some versatility defensively to possible play some OF. He can steal a few bases, but needs to works on his instincts a bit to improve his efficiency. The biggest concern with him currently is his poor plate discipline (4.0% BB rate). It currently isn't affecting him too much in South Bend, but as he gets higher in level it could be something that holds him back.

8) Kohl Franklin Pos: RHP Acq: 2018 Draft (6th) Age: 19 Level: A- ETA: 2023

• Key stat: 1.52 ERA
• Best tool: Change-up (60)

In each of the last three drafts, the Cubs have taken a chance on a high ceiling high school player in the 6th round exactly. Kohl Franklin was the middle of those three years, and its becoming very clear why the Cubs were so high on him. He has a very projectable frame standing at 6'4" and scouts like his chances to settle in the mid 90s with his fastball. His best offering is his plus-plus change-up, which he controls well and has excellent fade. His breaking ball is still very much a work in progress and he'll need to iron that out to achieve his potential. He has quickly shown he is too good for the Northwest League and could find his way to South Bend by season's end.
 
9) Ryan Jensen Pos: RHP Acq: 2019 Draft (1st) Age: 21 Level: A- ETA: 2022

• Key stat: Fastball (70)
• Best tool: 6.2 IP per start at Fresno State in 2019

"The Cubs need a bat". "The system is devoid is power and the Cubs will almost certainly target a big hitter in the 2019 draft". These were the constant theme entering the 2019 MLB draft, and what did the Cubs do? They went WAY below slot to take a flame-throwing righty out of Fresno State. Jensen was talked about as having the best fastball in the 2019 draft, and it's easy to see why. But what has impressed scouts early on in his pro career is the progress with his slider. His change-up will need work to stay in the rotation. One thing that really impresses me about Jensen is his ability to go deep into games while maintaining strong velocity on his fastball. He routinely threw near or above 100 pitches in games for Fresno State this season, so he definitely profiles as a starter in that department.

10) Tyson Miller Pos: RHP Acq: 2016 (4th) Age: 23 Level: AAA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 1.84 BB/9 in AA
• Best tool: Slider (55)

Miller got off to a scorching hot start to the 2019 season, backing up an impressive 2018 and solidifying himself as a legit prospect. He earned himself a promotion to Iowa back in the beginning of July, but the transition has been unkind to him. Despite his early struggles in Iowa, there's plenty to like about Miller's makeup. His high spin rate on his fastball gives it late life and deception and his slider also profiles as a plus offering. He also exhibits a solid feel for his change-up to keep hitters honest. One thing Miller needs to work on is getting hitters to hit the ball on the ground more. He is a fly ball heavy pitcher and that has been a major cause of issues during his transition to Iowa (the ball is on steroids in AAA). He has a grinder mentality though, so there's plenty of confidence that he can recapture his early season form.

 
11) Zack Short Pos: SS Acq: 2016 Draft (17th) Age: 24 Level: AAA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: .193 ISO
• Best tool: Field (60)

Zack Short has been proclaimed by many scouts to be the "best defender in the Cubs system", and that wouldn't necessarily be an overstatement. Short is an excellent athlete with great defensive instincts. He also had a strong arm that allows him to play multiple infield positions. Recently, he has even started to get work in the OF to increase his versatility. The big question over Short has always been if he could hit enough to be a viable option, specifically against righties. This season, Short has put some of those questions to bed; showcasing more power and an improved ability to hit against righties. Short still strikes out too much, but he does take his fair share of walks and he can do some damage once on the basepaths.
 
12) Chase Strumpf Pos: 2B Acq: 2019 Draft (2nd) Age: 21 Level: A- ETA: 2021

• Key stat: .954 OPS
• Best tool: Hit (55)

After taking Jensen in the first round of this year's draft, the Cubs turned around and nabbed the sweet-swinging Strumpf with their second pick. It was well known that Strumpf had an excellent hit tool, but I think he has gone above and beyond that expectation already in his brief pro career as he is absolutely shredding Northwest League pitching. He wasn't proclaimed to be a prolific power hitter coming out of college, but I think he has sneaky power that could lend himself to hitting roughly 15 HRs a season. One aspect that is of slight concern is Strump's augmented K rate: 12% at UCLA and over 26% in Eugene. This could just simply be a young kid adjusting to pro ball and nothing to worry about, but is something to keep an eye on. Defensively Strumpf is nothing special. He grades out as a below average 2B, so he will need to rely on his bat to propel him forward through the system.
 
13) Cory Abbott Pos: RHP Acq: 2017 Draft (2nd) Age: 23 Level: AA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 5.72 BB/9 in July
• Best tool: Cutter (60)

During the Cubs splurge on pitching in the 2017 draft, they spent their second round pick on Cory Abbott out of Loyola Marymount. Abbott has just breezed through his first two and a half seasons of pro ball to an outstanding 3.07 ERA. He had an impressive first half of 2019, mowing down hitters at an impressive rate (9.5 K/9) and walking few hitters (2.4 BB/9) before running into a wall in July. Abbott's cutter has maximum deception and it plays up due to a 4-seam that he spots well on the corners. His secondary pitches (curveball and change-up) are just average and he will need to improve those to be more than just a back-end rotation guy. Abbott could find himself in a bullpen role though, where he'd be able to unleash his cutter to its full potential.
 
14) Richard Gallardo Pos: RHP Acq: 2018 IFA (1M) Age: 17 Level: Rk ETA: 2024

• Key stat: 20.1% SwStr
• Best tool: Curveball (60)

Gallardo was the big prize of the Cubs' 2018 IFA signings. The Venezuelan-born righty already has an arsenal beyond his years, peaking with his plus-plus curveball. He is already working in the low 90s with his fastball, and should reach the mid 90s as he gets stronger. What really impresses scouts is how advanced he is with his change-up. Additionally, he has a clean, repeatable delivery which bodes well for his long term success. Early returns from Arizona haven't set the world on fire, but just give him time and he will find his way into the Cubs top 5 prospects and maybe the MLB's top 100.
 
15) Riley Thompson Pos: RHP Acq: 2018 Draft (11th) Age: 21 Level: A ETA: 2021

• Key stat: < 2 ER in 13/16 starts
• Best tool: Fastball (70)

I'm still wondering how the Cubs managed to steal Riley Thompson on day 3 of the 2018 draft. Last season he quickly impressed, but this season he has taken it to another level. It's easy to fall in love with Thompson's fastball as he can pump it into triple digits, and he backs it up with a power curve that also grades as plus-plus. But what has really impressed so far in his pro career is the feel he has developed for his change-up. He is so tantalizing to push quickly as a reliever and to let him come out of the 'pen throwing smoke, but his ability to find success with three pitches makes it hard to ignore his rotation potential.

 
16) Aramis Ademan Pos: SS Acq: 2015 IFA (2M) Age: 20 Level: A+ ETA: 2021

• Key stat: wRC+ 101
• Best tool: Field (55)

The Cubs have aggressively pushed Ademan at every step of his career, and he responded early on until last season when the wheels came off. There was some concern about him following his struggles in 2018, and if you looked purely at the slash line in 2019 (.224/.333/.344) you may still be concerned. But as a 20 year old in the Carolina League (a league notorious for being tough on hitters), Ademan has found himself right at league average with his performance at the plate (wRC+ 101). What is most encouraging to see is him hitting the ball in the air more following a season where nearly half his balls in play were on the ground. Ademan is another smooth-fielding MIF in the Cubs system and grades out as a plus defender. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs opt to move him around defensively to improve his versatility, but considering he is only 20 and they'd like to see his bat improve, that seems unlikely for now.
 
17) Ethan Hearn Pos: C Acq: 2019 Draft (6th) Age: 18 Level: Rk ETA: 2024

• Key stat: 46.2% SwStr
• Best tool: Arm (55)

The Cubs took a big swing on Ethan Hearn in the 6th round of this year's draft despite widespread signability concerns. They were able to convince him to forgo school and to start his pro career. Hearn will certainly be a long-term project as he is incredibly raw both offensively and defensively. He has big time power from the left side of the plate, but has definite contact concerns. Behind the plate, Hearn has a big time arm and a quick release that give him an impressive pop time. However, he will need work on his receiving skills and his ability to call games. The Cubs will likely get him in the development lab this off-season in a similar way to Brennen Davis last year to try and iron out his core deficiencies. Should he find success, don't be surprised if you see a Brennen Davis-like rise up prospect rankings next season.
 
18) Justin Steele Pos: LHP Acq: 2014 Draft (5th) Age: 24 Level: AA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: .404 BABIP
• Best tool: Fastball (60)

Steele's return from Tommy John surgery during the 2018 season was impressive to say the least. He came back with a vengeance to the tune of a 2.31 ERA and a 10.2 K/9, and was showcasing why he had been worth all the hype previously. He unfortunately has taken a step backwards this season, thanks a lot to more injuries and quite a bit of bad luck. Steele still possess a big fastball that he can run into the upper 90s, and plus breaking ball. He has the pure "stuff" to stick in the rotation, but durability concerns may push him into a full-time bullpen role in the near future.
 
19) Nelson Velazquez Pos: RF Acq: 2017 Draft (5th) Age: 20 Level: A ETA: 2023

• Key stat: .293 avg.
• Best tool: Arm (60)

Nelson Velazquez possesses one of the most interesting sets of tools in the entire system. Scouts love his raw power and he showed what he could do with it during his time with Eugene last season (11HRs). However, he has only been able to find the bleachers once so far this season in South Bend in 166 ABs so he will need to find a way to more consistently tap into his power. Velazquez's best tool his big time arm which allows him to be a strong defender in RF. He also has sneaky speed (12SBs in Eugene last season). His plate discipline and contact rates still need lots of work if he's going to succeed at higher levels. 
 
20) Brendon Little Pos: LHP Acq: 2017 Draft (1st) Age: 22 Level: A ETA: 2022

• Key stat: .169 BAA
• Best tool: Fastball (55)

Despite only having 89 innings of collegiate experience, the Cubs still made Brendon Little one of their two first round picks in 2017. The Cubs pushed him to full season ball in his first full season as a pro, and the results weren't pretty. He then got a late start to the season after dealing with injuries so it was very easy to lose hope that he could ever find success as a starter. However, Little has been as good as advertised since returning this season. Known for his power fastball and curveball coming out of college, Little has since developed a nice little slider that is helping him find success in 2019. He has also committed himself to developing his change-up in order to stay in the rotation. If he can finish this season strong, confidence in Little remaining a good middle of the rotation option should be rejuvinated. At worst, Little should profile well as a power lefty arm out of the 'pen.

21) Yovanny Cruz Pos: RHP Acq: 2016 IFA (60K) Age: 19 Level: Rk ETA: 2023

• Key stat: 37.1% SwStr in 2018
• Best tool: Fastball (60)

Yovanny Cruz impressed in 2018 as an 18 year old in Arizona, but got a late start to 2019 due to injury. His best asset is a strong sinking fastball that generates a lot of ground balls. He backs it up with a plus slider and a good change-up that is advanced for his age. He has good command and control of his pitches which gives him a fairly high floor, but his strong feel for his repetoire give him one of the higher ceilings in the system.

22) Jeremiah Estrada Pos: RHP Acq: 2017 Draft (6th) Age: 20 Level: A- ETA: 2023

• Key stat: 12.66 K/9
• Best tool: Change-up (60)

So here's a guy that I may be much higher on than others. I personally am in love with the potential that Estrada has. The problem is he has had plenty of trouble staying healthy in his pro career (missed all of 2018; only three starts in 2019). Additionally, he can often find himself struggling to throw strikes and get himself into trouble. But when he is on, Estrada has argubaly the best raw "stuff" in the entire system. His fastball is impressive in the mid 90s, but what he can get out of his secondary pitches is what impresses the most. His change-up has plus-plus potential and he mixes in a breaking ball that he can attack hitters with at varying angles that also has plus ability. Only time will tell if Estrada can really harness his potential and stay in the rotation.

23) Jack Patterson Pos: LHP Acq: 2018 Draft (32nd) Age: 23 Level: AA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 1.62 ERA
• Best tool: Sinker (55)

There's stealing guys on day three of the draft, and then there's Jack Patterson. A 32nd round senior draft pick is usually supposed to just be a nice organizational depth piece, but Patterson hasn't listened to any of that in just over a year as a pro (1.96 ERA). As of writing this, Patterson hasn't given up a run since June 12th (4IP 1ER). He was promoted to Myrtle Beach in July, and only lasted five (scoreless) starts before being sent to Tennessee. Patterson has a hard sinker that is like a cinder block when hitters make contact. His slider has also flashed as a potential plus pitch. In order to sustain his success at higher levels, Patterson will need to refine his command. With his meteoric rise this season, a trip to Chicago should be within his sights in 2020.


24) Erich Uelmen Pos: RHP Acq: 2017 Draft (4th) Age: 23 Level: A+ ETA: 2021

• Key stat: 61.6% GB Rate
• Best tool: Sinker (60)

Uelmen is another guy with a boulder-like sinker. He generates an insane amount of ground balls which allows him to have a great deal of consistency and success. Despite his prolific sinker, Uelmen doesn't offer any other plus offerings. Both his slider and his change-up are average offerings so he doesn't miss a lot of bats because of that. Though he's found success in the rotation, he could find long term success in the bullpen as a consistent out-getting middle reliever. I'm not one for player comparisons, but a Brandon Kintler comparison for him just makes way too much sense.

25) Pedro Martinez Pos: SS Acq: 2018 IFA (300K) Age: 18 Level: A- ETA: 2024

• Key stat: .935 OPS in AZL
• Best tool: Hit (55)

No, not THAT Pedro Martinez. Martinez was a late IFA signing in 2018, and all he's done since signing is hit. He is a line drive happy hitter from both sides of the plate. He doesn't profile as a power hitter at all, but with age could add some strength to break double digits. He runs well and can steal a few bases, but does not blow you away. Right now he projects as a SS defensively, but his instincts and arm strength should allow him the versatility to find a home anywhere in the IF.

26) Fabian Pertuz Pos: SS/3B Acq: 2017 IFA (300K) Age: 18 Level: Rk ETA: 2024

• Key stat: wRC+ 112
• Best tool: Speed (60)

Fabian Pertuz impressed in the DSL in 2018 after being signed out of Colombia, and he has continued that success stateside in Arizona. His speed is impressive, but in order to be a great base stealer he will need to work on his instincts. He is still raw offensively and needs to work on his plate discipline. His power doesn'nt necessarily impress right now, but could grow better with age and development. It will be interesting to see how he continues to adjust in subsequent seasons and if he can rise up prospect boards.


27) Reivaj Garcia Pos: 2B Acq: 2017 IFA (500K) Age: 17 Level: Rk ETA: 2024

• Key stat: wRC+ 110 in 2018
• Best tool: Hit (55)

Raivaj Garcia was was the youngest player in Arizona last season (16), and he was praised for his ability to not only hold his own, but also find a good deal of success. The Cubs opted to push him this season in Eugene, but he fell flat on his face. Hardly surprising for such a young kid, but now the question is how does he respond? He is incredibly toolsy and it is clear to see why scouts love his makeup. The switch hitting 2B should find more power with age and he already has impressed defensively. This season was all about facing adversity, so 2020 will be intriguing to see how he adjusts.

28) Wyatt Short Pos: LHP Acq: 2016 Draft (13th) Age: 24 Level: AA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 9.89 K/9
• Best tool: Slider (55)

Simply put, Wyatt Short is devestating against lefties. Lefties are only hitting an abysmal .170 off of him this season. Beyond that, righties aren't much better at a meager .239. Short only stands 5'8" tall, but he is a force on the mound and goes right after hitters. He has found more success in 2019 at missing bats to improve his K rate, due in large part to the strong nature of his sweeping slider. It is not an understatment to think he should be in consideration for the 2020 opening day roster for the big league club. Frankly, it's a crime he hasn't been promoted to Iowa yet. 

29) Keegan Thompson Pos: RHP Acq: 2017 Draft (3rd) Age: 24 Level: AA ETA: 2021

• Key stat: 8K in 5IP in 2019
• Best tool: Curveball (55)

Another one of the pitchers taken in the pitcher-heavy 2017 draft class, Keegan Thompson profiled as a high-floor "workhorse" pitcher. He has since lived up to the bill, until this season. Thompson had an impressive 2019 debut, but he hasn't been seen since. The Cubs have released no details on his injury, so we are all left to wonder. Thompson doesn't have exceptional "stuff", but he uses it well to find success. His best asset is his plus curveball. He could be higher on this list, but until anyone gets word on what's going on, he's stuck here.

30) Oscar De La Cruz Pos: RHP Acq: 2012 IFA (85K) Age: 24 Level: AA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 31.8% bullpen K rate
• Best tool: Fastball (55)

De La Cruz was recently DFA'd by the Cubs in order to clear space on the 40-man roster following some trade deadline acquisitions. The Cubs were able to sneak him through waivers and he was outrighted to Tennessee so we will get to see him for at least the rest of the season. The Cubs officially moved him to the bullpen full-time back in June, where he has found a decent amount of success. De La Cruz has long been on Cubs top prospect lists, including topping out at number 1. Though he has never achieved his potential as a starter, De La Cruz could find long term success in the pen if he can stay committed.

31) Fernando Kelli Pos: CF Acq: 2016 IFA Age: 20 Level: A- ETA: 2024

• Key stat: wRC+ 118
• Best tool: Speed (70)

In a system lacking in elite speed, Kelli has it to burn. Arguably the top speed man in the entire system, Kelli has a strong knack for swiping bases. What has impressed though in 2019 is his progress with the bat. He still is not, and likely will never be, a hitter that will blow anyone away, but he has made strides this season that give him a better opportunity at long term success.


32) Andy Weber Pos: SS Acq: 2018 Draft (5th) Age: 21 Level: A ETA: 2022

• Key stat: .824 OPS vs. lefties
• Best tool: Arm (60)

To be honest, I may not have Weber ranked high enough. The left handed hitter out of Virginia profiled as a plus defender coming out of college with some ability to swing the bat. In 2019, Weber has built on that defensive profile to now be considered an above average hitter. Combined with his defensive versatility, this makes for an intriguing long term prospect.

33) Dakota Mekkes Pos: RHP Acq: 2016 Draft (10th) Age: 24 Level: AAA ETA: 2020

• Key stat: 2.81 pre-break ERA
• Best tool: Fastball (65)

Mekkes possesses an extremely deceiving fastball in which he uses his large frame to generate a lot of downward action. Though it is not a plus offering, Mekkes gets enough out of his slider to be a vaible second option and to keep the fastball threatening. He still needs to work on his command/control if he wants to carve out a long term role in the Chicago bullpen. He got off to a hot start in 2019, but cooled off considerably after the all-star break. A 2019 call-up is likely out of the question, but we should see him at some point in 2020.


34) Yonathan Perlaza Pos: 3B Acq: 2015 IFA (1.3M) Age: 20 Level: A ETA: 2024

• Key stat: .141 ISO in Eugene
• Best tool: Speed (55)

Finally healthy, Perlaza is finally sustaining success this season. Enough so that he earned a promotion to South Bend after only 25 games in Eugene. He showcased a little more pop in Eugene this season than previously, but hasn't sustained it in South Bend. His best tool is his speed, but he is not an excellent SB threat. The switch-hitting IF should be one to keep a close eye on in 2020.


35) Jose Albertos Pos: RHP Acq: 2015 IFA (1.5M) Age: 20 Level: A ETA: 2024

• Key stat: 8.16 BB/9
• Best tool: Change-up (55)

My, how the mighty have fallen. A consensus top 5 prospect to open last season, Jose Albertos hasn't been able to get out of his own way the last two seasons as he just can't find the strikezone (19.3 BB/9 in 2018). I am not ready to give up yet, however. Albertos was widely regarded as a top prospect because of his pure "stuff", highlighted by a plus-plus fastball and a change-up that flashed as plus-plus. He is still only 20 so there is time to figure it out and achieve his immensely high ceiling, but he has to figure out the mental aspect of the game first. 




Top prospects breakdown by position (top 20)
RHP: 14 (7)
LHP: 5 (3)
C: 2 (2)
IF: 10 (5)
OF: 4 (3)

Top prospects breakdown by level (top 20)
AAA: 4 (3)
AA: 7 (3)
A+: 4 (3)
A: 9 (6)
A-: 6 (3)
Rk: 5 (2)

Probable top prospects, but haven't seen enough yet to judge

• Ronnier Quintero (2019 IFA)
• Jose Lopez (DSL)
• Rafael Morel (DSL)
• Yohendrick Pinango (DSL)
• Michael McAvene (3IP in Eugene)

Just missed the cut

• Jonathan Sierra OF (20, A)
• Zac Taylor OF (23, A)
• Jeffrey Passantino RHP (23, A+)
• Javier Assad RHP (22, A+)
• Luis Verdugo SS (18, Rk)
• DJ Artis OF (22, A+)

25 and older players to watch

• Rowan Wick RHP (26, MLB)
• Robel Garcia 2B (26, AAA)
• Duane Underwood RHP (25, MLB)
• Dillon Maples RHP (27, AAA)
• Philip Evans 3B (26, AAA)
• James Norwood RHP (25, AAA)
• Trent Giambrone 2B (25, AAA)

And so concludes my first ever Cubs top prospects list. I am personally very excited about the overall potential of this system, and can't wait to see the big names get to the higher levels. Prospecting season is now over (usually dies down for me post-trade deadline), so it is time to focus on the big league club and the playoff hunt. Stay tuned for some more commentary on the Wrigley crew in the coming weeks as we approach the playoffs.

About Me (And My New Blog)

Welcome to my new blog!

My name is Anthony and I was born and raised in the greatest city in the world: Chicago, where we have the best food (especially pizza), best people (seriously, Midwest people are awesome), and the best sports teams and fans (over 5 million people showed up to the Cubs 2016 championship parade, how many showed up to YOUR team's last championship parade?).

Of course I'm not biased at all....

Despite my clearly unbiased opinions on the city of Chicago, there is another Midwest city that is near and dear to my heart: Omaha.

I spent four of the best years on my life at Creighton University (coincidentally at the same exact time as Doug McDermott was lighting the NCAA basketball world on fire). For those of you who have never been to Omaha, you're seriously missing out and I strongly encourage you to make a visit (go during the College World Series, the entire city is electric).

After getting a Bachelor's in Biology, I went on to pursue a PhD in Biology at the University of Delaware. Six long years later, and I finally (mercifully) achieved that goal. Now I am working on my dream to become a physician at Nova Southeastern Allopathic.

As you can probably tell, I am a big sports fan and I love talking shop. Much of my blog will talk about my favorite teams (Cubs, Bears, Bulls, and Creighton basketball), but I will also sprinkle in some discussions about the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB, and maybe a little fantasy advice here and there.

Some people may say I'm a bit outspoken....... I'm not gonna say that they're wrong. I like to give my opinions on things and I hope that you, the reader, will enjoy what I write on this blog.

If you're interested in following me on social media, I will post links every time I make a new blog post. My Twitter handle is: @ViatorLion10

I also have a Facebook page with a couple of friends that I am trying to get going again. We post videos amongst other things on that page, so feel free to give that a follow as well: