 |
| Preston Williams ($5500 on FD) hasn't quite recaptured his 2019 pre-ACL form yet, but a matchup with an exploitable Seattle Seahawks secondary in an explosive, high-scoring game (Total 54.5) could be just the right mix for a breakout performance |
"You didn't see anything".
My week 3 ATS picks were an illusion (just like week 1). They don't exist. Week 4 is all that matters.
Week in review ATS: 1-5 (pick of the week: L)
Season ATS: 7-10-1 (picks of the week: 2-1)
Pick of the Week: Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
I believe the Texans to be a better team than the 0-3 record indicates, while the Vikings are right about in line with their 0-3 record. The Texans have had a very difficult schedule to open their season (@Chiefs, Ravens, @Steelers) and now they face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they get to end the first quarter of their season with a soft home matchup against a Vikings team who can't stop anybody defensively and have had their share of struggles offensively. I expect a big game out of Watson and co. this Sunday
Other Picks
I've had some early success picking the Bears this season, so I'm gonna roll with Ind @ Chi (+3) to help get my picks back on track. I think the Colts are overrated and the Bears are underrated. If the Seattle Seahawks a playing a game this season, I want the over on that game. Over 54.5 Sea @ Mia is not nearly enough points to scare me away. Put me down for Under 54 NO @ Det. Alvin Kamara may run wild on the Detroit defense, but I'm not buying Drew Brees without Michael Thomas and the Saints D should be able to hold Detroit in check enough. Don't look now, but the Bills and Raiders have been two of the more high-powered offenses in the league to start the season. Over 52.5 Buf @ LVR in what could be an intriguing shootout. Finally, I'll cap off my pick with a MNF one. Over 56.5 Atl @ GB almost seems too easy in a game that could turn into the equivalent of a college shootout. Those chances get even higher if the trio of Ridley/Julio/Adams all suit up.
DFS Picks
Week in review:
| Name | Cost | FDP | Value | ||
| QB | Stud | Russell Wilson | $8,700 | 36.8 | 4.2 |
| Sleeper | Mitch Trubisky* | $7,500 | 12.6 | 1.7 | |
| Ryan Tannehill | $7,400 | 13.2 | 1.8 | ||
| Fade | Justin Herbert | $7,200 | 15.7 | 2.2 | |
| RB | Stud | Derrick Henry | $8,200 | 26.0 | 3.2 |
| Sleeper | Kenyan Drake | $6,500 | 8.4 | 1.3 | |
| Joshua Kelley | $5,900 | 4.2 | 0.7 | ||
| Fade | Jerrick McKinnon | $5,700 | 15.2 | 2.7 | |
| WR | Stud | Chris Godwin** | $7,900 | 14.9 | 1.9 |
| Sleeper | Terry McLaurin | $6,700 | 10.6 | 1.6 | |
| DK Metcalf*** | $6,500 | 17.0 | 2.6 | ||
| Fade | Calvin Ridley**** | $8,000 | 14.2 | 1.8 | |
| TE | Stud | None | NA | NA | NA |
| Sleeper | Noah Fant | $5,800 | 7.1 | 1.2 | |
| Jonnu Smith | $5,600 | 8.6 | 1.5 | ||
| Fade | None | NA | NA | NA | |
| DST | Stud | Chargers | $5,000 | 4.0 | 0.8 |
| Sleeper | Buccaneers | $3,800 | 18.0 | 4.7 | |
| Fade | 49ers | $4,600 | 12.0 | 2.6 |
*Trubisky was benched in the third quarter against the Falcons
**Godwin left his game with with a hamstring injury
***Metcalf fumbled away a walk-in TD in the first quarter against the Falcons. That's what you get for showboating before the job is done
****Ridely did most of his damage on the Falcons' first play from scrimmage, but was held relatively in check after that
Week 4 picks:
| Name | Opp | Cost | ||
| QB | Stud | Kyler Murray | Car | $8,400 |
| Sleeper | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Sea | $7,100 | |
| Jared Goff | NYG | $7,500 | ||
| Fade | Josh Allen | Buf | $8,600 | |
| RB | Stud | Dalvin Cook | Hou | $8,700 |
| Sleeper | James Robinson | Cin | $6,600 | |
| David Johnson | Min | $6,700 | ||
| Fade | Joe Mixon | Jac | $6,800 | |
| WR | Stud | Tyler Lockett | Mia | $7,500 |
| Sleeper | Preston Williams | Sea | $5,500 | |
| Robert Woods | NYG | $6,700 | ||
| Fade | Mike Evans | LAC | $7,400 | |
| TE | Stud | Darren Waller | Buf | $6,700 |
| Sleeper | TJ Hockenson | NO | $5,400 | |
| Rob Gronkowski | LAC | $5,200 | ||
| Fade | Mike Gesicki | Sea | $5,700 | |
| DST | Stud | Ravens | Was | $5,000 |
| Sleeper | Bears | Ind | $4,100 | |
| Fade | Colts | Chi | $4,900 |
QB:
The QB position this week is filled with a lot of options, so picking out the right players could be difficult. However, give me Kyler Murray to bounce back strong against an exploitable Panthers defense and return some good value. Ryan Fitzpatrick is my all around favorite play this week. Any QB playing the weak Seahawks secondary deserves a long look in DFS, and Fitz has the gunslinger ability to drop a lot of points at a fraction of the cost. Jared Goff might fly under a lot of people's radars, but he's quietly been putting together a strong campaign. The Giants may look good on paper against the pass, but they were torched in week 1 by Ben Roethlisberger. LA should be able to exploit them as well. Josh Allen has been pretty much matchup-proof early this season, but he's in a spot here where I don't love him. The Raiders just shut down Cam Newton and they stifled Drew Brees in their only home game this season. Allen will also likely be pretty popular and I don't love the price. If you're in this price range for QB, you're better off spending the extra $400 for Russell Wilson or saving $200 for Kyler Murray.
RB:
Dalvin Cook has been an absolute workhorse to start the season and has provided good consistency as well. Volume, consistency, and matchup are a tantalizing combination in DFS. James Robinson has been all over the field for the Jaguars thus far this year. His involvement in the passing game is a big boost for his fantasy value, as is a soft matchup against the Bengals. David Johnson has been a victim of a tough early season schedule, but he finally gets one he can exploit in week 4. I expect him to take advantage. Joe Mixon looks like he's going to play after being a surprise late week addition to the Bengals' injury report, but I'm avoiding him. I think the Bengals will look to exploit Jacksonville's weak secondary, limiting Mixon's upside. Robinson and DJ are better options for the same cost.
WR:
Tyler Lockett has been the definition of a stud so far this season though, and he gets another strong matchup again this week. DeVante Parker will no doubt be very chalky against Seattle, but I'm diving a little deeper an picking the starting WR opposite of him: Preston Williams. Williams hasn't quite recaptured his early season success from last season as he works his way back from an ACL injury, but a breakout could very well be on the horizon. All Robert Woods does is catch footballs and produce. The Giants secondary is nothing to write home about and Woods should make the perfect stack with Goff. Last time Chris Godwin was out I tried fading Mike Evans and it didn't work out too well. This time I feel a little better about it since Evans has to face a much tougher test in the Chargers corners. I'd avoid him at this price.
TE:
Darren Waller struggled last week after dealing with a nagging injury, but he looks to be fully healthy now. The Bills got absolutely worked by Mike Gesicki in week 2, and Waller is not only a better talent but should have more opportunity with the Raiders being down both of their starting WRs (Ruggs/Edwards). New Orleans has struggled mightily against TEs to this point of the season, thus making TJ Hockenson a cash-saving upside play this week. If you're someone who likes to take risks, look no further than Rob Gronkowski. Chris Godwin's absence should open up some targets for the rest of the offense, and while the Chargers are strong on the outside, they're desperately missing Derwin James at the safety positon. Gronk used to be a matchup nightmare, let's see if he's still got it. Finally, I expect Mike Gesicki to be pretty chalky, so that's a good reason to look elsewhere. Another is that WRs are responsible for most of the damage against the Seattle secondary, not TEs. Gesicki could be fool's gold this week.
DST:
There is no doubt the Ravens will be massive chalk this weekend, but for good reason. Washington should be a super exploitable matchup and Baltimore should come out pissed off after their performance on MNF last week. I think the Bears may feast on Philip Rivers this week. The switch to Foles at QB may allow Chuck Pagano to be more willing to get aggressive defensively, and when that happens the Bears are notorious for forcing turnovers and creating TDs. On the other side of that game, don't buy into the Colts this week. I'm not saying the Bears offense will be world beaters, but they will certainly put up better fights than the Colts opponents to this point. Being almost identical in price as the Ravens, just spend up for the Ravens.
Here are my lineups for the week:
Main Slate
SuperFlex
Good Luck!
