Yu Darvish’s first season in Cubbie blue certainly didn’t go to plan. After signing a 6-year $126M contract during the 2017-2018 offseason, Darvish stumbled out of the gate in 2018 (8 starts with a 4.95 ERA) before landing in the IL with an elbow issue. When he finally looked like he may get back to Wrigley, Darvish left one of his rehab starts with pain and was subsequently shut down for the rest of the season.
Many fans wanted to jump ship on Darvish following an extremely disappointing first season. That list only grew through his first 8 starts of 2019 (5.40 ERA 1 QS 8.10 BB/9). Others, like myself, urged fans to stay the course. Darvish had a long history of success in Texas (a ballpark notoriously hard to pitch in) and some things just didn’t seem right. His walk rate and fastball command were not what they once were. Had he diminished as a pitcher? Was he still injured? Was he not locked in mentally?
Or maybe...
Was he just a bit rusty?
Coming off 186 innings and a WS run in 2017, Darvish only tossed 40 (injury-riddled) major league innings in 2018. For a guy who hadn’t thrown healthy major league innings since October 2017, it honestly isn’t surprising he struggled to find a rhythm early in 2019. Think that’s just an excuse? Check out what happened on May 15th:
In his 9th start of the season, Darvish went into Great American Ballpark (another hitter friendly park) and fanned 11 Reds in 5.1 IP. Best part:
He walked no one
In fact, he hasn’t really walked anyone since then. Since that May 15th start, Darvish’s walk rate is only 1.70 BB/9 (plummeting his season to only 3.48) while still maintaining a filthy 10.76 K/9. He has also started to work deeper into games (6+ IP in 12/16 starts, 6 QS) and is starting to look more like the pitcher everyone expected when he signed that large contract just a season and a half ago.
While it might be tempting to look at his 4.06 ERA since that start against the Reds (and his 4.43 season ERA) and not be impressed, there’s one major consideration that needs to be taken:
His insane HR/9 rate.
At 1.77 this season, Darvish’s rate is way above both league average and his career average. So what is causing this?
Well the simple answers would typically point to augmented fly ball or hard contact rates. But therein lies the rub with Darvish:
Both his fly ball rate (33.4%) and hard contact rate (29.6%) are below his career averages. In fact, he’s inducing more ground balls than ever before in his career (47.0%).
Now with that being said, I will mention that when batters are hitting fly balls against Darvish, his hard contact rate is at a career high (39.6%). Welcome to baseball in 2019.
Nonetheless, Darvish’s abnormally high HR/FB rate (23.4%, which is insane even for 2019) seems to indicate bad luck more than anything. To understand how well he’s actually been pitching, just take a look at his SIERA (an indicator of what a pitchers true ERA should be. For a good explanation see here) Since that start against the Reds, Darvish sits at a strong 3.37: indicating he’s firing on all cylinders.
While results on the field are often all that matters, I do firmly believe that there is a lot to love about Yu Darvish’s season. He seems to be finding his groove in Cubbie blue in 2019, especially of late. If he can keep it up, he will certainly be a major asset come October.
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