Week 1 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

"Let Russ cook" set the league on fire early last season. A new OC in Seattle may let us all experience it once more in 2021.

The 2021 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers edging out a 31-29 victory over the Dallas Cowboys . Today we get our first NFL Sunday of the season! Let's dive in to some of my top gambling picks of the day:

Pick of the week: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

I'm buying in heavily to the change at offensive coordinator for the Seahawks. I think that the 'Hawks will unleash the "Let Russ cook" movement we saw in the first half of last season once again. The Colts have a solid enough defense, but their pass defense is not elite. This should open the door for Russ and the 'Hawks to have a big game. Combine that with the Colts having lost 7 straight opening games and Seattle look awfully tempting at -2.5.

Other Picks

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks defense was much maligned last season, especially through the air. I think Carson Wentz can unlock the potential of the Colts offense this season. I like Over 49 Sea/Ind as another strong play. Another game total I'm targeting is Over 53.5 Ari/Ten. These are two high-powered offenses that are tailored to attack the weaknesses of each other's defenses. This should be a fun one. The final game total I want is Over 47 Min/Cin. Cincy's defense is incredibly weak and I am not a believer of Minnesota's defense yet. There is simply too much offensive talent in this game for me to shy away. 9.5 points is not enough for me to avoid SF (-9.5) @ Det. The Niners are back to full health this season and Detroit is completely devoid of talent. Finally, an underdog target I like is Phi (+3) @ Atl. Although I'm wary of trusting Jalen Hurts, a match-up with the Falcons is one that he and the Eagles offense can exploit. I actually like the Eagles straight up in this one.

DFS Picks (FanDuel)

QB:

• LBBs (Lineup building blocks): Kyler Murray ($8400), Jalen Hurts ($7600)
  

As I mentioned above, I'm expecting a shootout in Tennessee. Murray should be able to stack points in this one. If you're looking to save a little extra cash, Jalen Hurts is another strong option against an incredibly weak Falcons secondary. His strong rushing upside could lead to a huge performance on opening weekend.

• GPP plays: Trevor Lawrence ($6800), Carson Wentz ($6500)
  

I'm pretty high on Trevor Lawrence this season, and he opens the year against a woeful Houston team. There is some risk here since we haven't seen him yet, but the upside is real. If you want a real diamond in the rough pick, Carson Wentz could be it. As I already mentioned, Seattle's passing defense is very exploitable. It's risky because it's Wentz, but he's still an intriguing option.

RB:

• LBBs: Dalvin Cook ($9400), James Robinson ($5900)
  

Cook should have completely fresh legs and be in line for a heavy workload in this one. Combine that with Cincy's defensive deficiencies, he's one to build a lineup around for sure. James Robinson is simply too cheap for the role/match-up he has this week.

• GPP plays: Alvin Kamara ($8600), Jamaal Williams ($4900)
  

 If you're looking for a cheaper pivot off of the big three RBs on the slate this week (McCaffrey, Henry, and Cook), Kamara is a great option. In two games against the Packers in his career, Kamara has dropped 41.4 FDP and there's no reason to think that trend shouldn't continue. If you're looking for some extreme savings at the RB position, Williams should have a good enough role to provide value. I expect the Lions to be in a negative game script, opening the door for Williams to do some work in the passing game.

WR:

• LBBs: Calvin Ridley ($8100), Michael Pittman ($5300)
  

Kyle Pitts may eventually become a star in Atlanta, but for now, Calvin Ridley is still top dog. The Eagles secondary is exploitable and Ridley should be in for a lot of usage in this one. As I have mentioned countless times in this post, the Seahawks secondary is BAD. Michael Pittman should be in for a good target share in this one, and thus is the Colts WR to target.

• GPP plays: Tyler Lockett ($6800), Parris Campbell ($5000)
  

Lockett is a true boom or bust play this week, but I'm leaning towards boom. DK Metcalf got all the hype last year during the "Let Russ cook" days, but Lockett was right there with him putting up huge numbers. If you're looking for a contrarian play off of Pittman against the Seahawks, Parris Campbell is your guy. Injuries have kept Campbell from achieving any of the hype surrounding him, but there was hype for a reason. Wentz also tends to like targeting his slot guys. Something to consider.

TE:

• LBBs: Travis Kelce ($8500), Jonnu Smith ($4900)
  

Travis Kelce could probably fall into this category every single week. That goes double on weeks he faces teams who aren't great at stopping TEs (like the Browns). Jonnu Smith is a must for me at $4900. He should have a pretty good target share, making him a much better option at his cost despite the tougher match-up. I'm a fan of punting at TE with Smith and spending elsewhere.

• GPP plays: Austin Hooper ($5100), Tyler Conklin ($4400)
  

The Browns are reportedly planning to get Austin Hooper a lot more involved this season. I'm gonna buy that hype for at least week 1 in a good match-up. If you really want to punt on TE altogether, Tyler Conklin is an option. He's no guarantee to even receive a large amount of snaps (Chris Herndon is also in Minnesota now), but he is the incumbent following an Irv Smith injury. You could do worse than him.

DST: 

• Cash play: 49ers ($5000)
  

This one is pretty self-explanatory. The Lions lack anything that resembles talent offensively. If you have the cash, don't overthink this one.

• GPP play: Jaguars ($3900)
  

Houston is another team that is lacking talent offensively. Jacksonville doesn't have a particularly strong defense, but they do have a few playmakers. This is a pretty interesting defense to target this week if you want to save a little cash.

My main slate lineup for the week:

 

Chicago Bears 2020 Season in Review: Offensive Skill Players

 

David Montgomery established himself as one of the rising stars at RB in the NFL in 2020. He is a key part of the Bears' offense going forward.

Running Backs

David Montgomery

In an offense that struggled mightily throughout the season, Montgomery was one of the lone bright spots as he piled up over 1500 yards from scrimmage despite running behind a subpar OL for most of the year. Monty specialized at making something out of nothing, finishing 9th in rush yards over expected (per NGS), and finishing runs with some impressive power (finished 3rd in broken tackles behind Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry and T-2nd in rushing attempts per broken tackle).

For a guy who "lacks burst", Montgomery sure showed a lot of burst in 2020. His short area quickness was impressive on film, and it opened the door to turning broken plays into positive gains or moderate gains into bigger plays. And when give the opportunity, he showed he could turn on the afterburners and go for 6. His development as a receiver was also a pleasant surprise. Grade A+

Tarik Cohen

Tarik Cohen's season was unfortunately cut short due to an ACL tear in week 3 against the Falcons. His performance to that point left some to be desired. Cohen is certainly a player that can be used as a Swiss army knife offensively and provide a good amount of value. However, he needs to be used properly, and I worry about that going forward with Matt Nagy Grade Incomplete

Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson is another gadget-type player that can be used all over the offense. In 2020, he was used more as a RB, especially following the injury to Tarik Cohen. Many people were frustrated with Patterson's use at RB, and understandably so. Patterson got too many snaps instead of Montgomery for much of the year, and that can't happen. Despite some fans' frustrations with Patterson even being used as a RB at all, I'm actually quite ok with it. I did notice improvements in his vision as the season went on, and Patterson is a playmaker in space. Resigning him for special teams reasons and using him in the occasional package at RB seems like a good approach to 2021 for me. Grade C

Ryan Nall

Nall is a classic example of a Matt Nagy obsession. He simply doesn't have the necessarily tools for be a successful RB in the NFL, but Nagy let him be part of the backup rotation despite having an options like Lamar Miller and Artavis Pierce (more on him in a second) available. I don't want to see him back with the team next season. Grade D+

Artavis Pierce

Just as Ryan Nall is a classic example of a Matt Nagy obsession, Pierce is a classic example of a young player being blocked from showing what he can do (we'll get to Riley Ridley in a minute). From the little bit we saw of Pierce, he looked like he had some explosive traits in him. It's a shame we couldn't see what he could do in an expanded role. Hopefully he's with the team come August and we can maybe see him in some full preseason action. Grade Incomplete

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson

Robinson continued to show why he is considered to be one of the better WRs in the NFL. He remained a reliable, steady target for the Bears turnstile at QB. Despite another strong season-long performance from A Rob, I must admit that I do want to see more out of him. His RAC ability leaves something to be desired and his ability to win contested catches faltered at times. He also disappeared in the last two games of the season when the Bears most needed victories (albeit not entirely on him).

I want to bring Robinson back on an extension, however, I'm hesitant to pay him true WR1 money as he hasn't quite shown that yet. He has all the tools to get there though, so paying up for that could pay dividends for an offense in need of playmakers. Grade B+

Darnell Mooney

What an absolute find Mooney was by Pace in the 2020 draft. Despite being limited by Nagy's nonsensical scheme, Mooney was able to put on a show with his route running abilities. The lack of big plays is not on him, as on too many occasions he created huge separation, but was missed by his QB. Mooney looks to be the real deal at WR, and hopefully the Bears offense can find a way to get more out of his abilities in 2021 Grade A-

Anthony Miller

It has been a true disappointment to watch the downfall of Anthony Miller. Following a promising rookie season, the last two have been marred with inconsistency and lost focus. I'm still a firm believer in his talent, but it's likely that he's going to need a fresh start. Getting tossed from the playoff game after mixing it up with CJ Gardner-Johnson was probably the final nail in the coffin. Grade C-

Javon Wims

Wims provided some intriguing depth during the 2019 season, postulating that he could be a contributor during the 2020 season. However, this never came to fruition as he failed to find his footing early in the season. The wheels came completely off in week 8 against the Saints when his lack of discipline got him ejected after he threw haymakers at CJ Gardner-Johnson. His poor season was capped with a critical drop on a wide open TD in the playoffs against the Saints. Grade D-

Riley Ridley

Yet another talented player being stonewalled by Nagy's stubbornness, Ridley continues to struggle to see the field (or even be activated). In the little bit we have been able to see of him in his two seasons, Ridley has impressed on the field. The only question is whether or not he'll get to prove it more consistently in 2021. Grade Incomplete

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

Brought in to help fix some of the Bears red zone woes and to be a mentor to the young and talented Cole Kmet, it's suffice to say that Graham's 2020 season was a successful one. Despite his lack of efficiency (a career low 9.1 YPC), he was still able to contribute 8 TDs. On top of that, his mentorship of Cole Kmet was evident.

The Graham signing was met with a lot of criticism in the 2020 off-season, but the move ended up achieving its goals. That's a nice positive. Grade B+

Cole Kmet

The pick of Kmet at 43rd overall was another move in the 2020 off-season that was met with a lot of criticism. That criticism was heightened as he failed to contribute early in the season, registering only 6 receptions for 79 yards and a TD in weeks 1-9. However, during that time period, he wasn't being used too often (failing to break a 50% snap share in any of those contests). Starting in week 10, Kmet started to dominate the share of snaps at the TE position (averaging >80% of the offensive snaps) to produce 22 receptions for 164 yards and another TD.

His lack of use up the seam was frustrating (yet another player being misused by Nagy), but his ability to add tough yards after the catch and his advanced abilities as an in-line blocker were definitely positive signs of things to come. Grade A-

Demetrius Harris

Harris was another veteran brought in to help stabilize a poor TE unit from 2019. He was supposed to be a solid Y TE who could contribute some in the passing game. However, he was unable to produce much on either end of the spectrum, and his playing time dropped to essentially zero by the end of the season. Grade C-

JP Holtz

Holtz showed a lot of promise as a lead blocker/FB type in 2019 and even a little bit as a contributor in the passing game. However, he seemed over-matched in that same role in 2020. He may return in 2021 in the same role, but I would hope the Bears would look elsewhere for improvement. Grade D

 

Up next: Offensive Line

Previous: Management and Coaching Staff, QBs

Chicago Bears 2020 Season in Review: The Signal Callers

Mitchell Trubisky may have played his final game as a Chicago Bear. The former number two overall pick has not panned out in his first four professional seasons.

Mitchell Trubisky

Trubisky's 2020 season actually started off well with a rousing 4th quarter comeback against the Lions and a solid performance against the New York Giants in week 2. But following a difficult first half and early third quarter interception, Matt Nagy inexplicably pulled the trigger to bench Trubisky for Nick Foles against the Falcons in week 3.

Following a 6 game losing streak and a Nick Foles injury, Trubisky was able to regain the starting position for the rest of the season. Strong performances against the Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars were overshadowed by offensive struggles against the Packers (twice) and Saints. However, based on my observations this season, it seems as though Mitch played better than advertised. It feels as though he was hamstrung by the ineptitude of his "offensive guru" head coach.

Mitch's performance in 2020 certainly left much to be desired, but I definitely saw improvements. I just wish we could have seen what a Lazor/Mitch combination would have looked like without any Matt Nagy intrusion in the bigger games (Packers and Saints). Grade B-

Nick Foles

Foles was brought in to be a veteran presence at QB who could compete with Trubisky for the starting job. Despite losing the QB battle in camp, Foles stayed ready and relieved Trubisky to help the Bears complete a big comeback victory over the Falcons in week 3. However, Foles was vastly underwhelming from that point forward. He was supposed to be Nagy's hand-picked guy to run his scheme, but that completely backfired as the Bears offense sputtered for weeks (capped off with an awful 15/26 106yd performance against the Vikings on MNF in week 10). 

Foles' athletic limitations were a detriment to the offense as a whole, and they were further exacerbated by poor OL play and a nonsensical scheme during the Bears 6 game losing streak. I still understand why the Bears pursued him (especially in the midst of a COVID-19 off-season), but the end results were not great. Grade D+

 

Up next: Offensive Skill Players

Previous: Management and Coaching Staff 

Chicago Bears 2020 Season in Review: Grading the One's at the Top

In three seasons, Matt Nagy sports a respectable 28-20 record with two playoff appearances. However, his team's have greatly under-performed the last two seasons, heating his seat up to dangerous levels

Success starts at the top, right? Let's start our 2020 season in review by taking a look back at how those in charge performed during the Bears 8-8 campaign.

Ryan Pace

Pace seemingly had a mixed bag of success in 2020. On the positive side, he absolutely nailed the 2020 draft class, which at the very least does give some young talent the Bears can build off of. Previous draft picks like Roquan Smith and David Montgomery also blossomed as young stars. Pace also continued to make the right moves defensively, retaining under the radar players like Roy Robertson-Harris and bringing in the right veterans to fill key holes (Barkevious Mingo, Mario Edwards, Tashaun Gibson). However, his biggest off-season acquisition (Robert Quinn--more on him in a future post) has been met with a lot of backlash, especially as Bears fans watched Leonard Floyd tear it up in LA (10.5 sacks) . He also made the mistake letting both Nick Kwiatkowski and Kevin Pierre-Louis walk while retaining an aging Danny Trevathan. Low cost options on the offensive side of the ball (Ted Ginn, Nick Foles, Germain Ifedi) mostly flopped, contributing to some of the offensive struggles in 2020.

It wasn't Pace's best off-season in 2020, however he was able to find some incredible value in the draft, thus buoying his grade. The emergence of UDFAs on the OL (Mustipher and Bars) helps as well. Grade: B-

Matt Nagy

I'm going to be blunt:

Nothing about Matt Nagy's performance in 2020 was good. Schematically, this team had no identity offensively. He continued to make awful personnel decisions that hurt the team (Rashad Coward over Alex Bars/Sam Mustipher, benching Mitch Trubisky for Nick Foles, refusing to give Cole Kmet snaps until 2/3 of the way through the season, misusing Jimmy Graham and David Montgomery, an unhealthy obsession with Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall at RB and not giving Artavis Pierce a chance, continually inactivating Riley Ridley in favor of less talented WRs, a la Javon Wims, and many more).

Nagy was brought in to Chicago to be an "offensive guru" and to take Mitch Trubisky and this offense to the next level. However, he has done the exact opposite in his three seasons. He has refused to call a scheme to put his young QB in a position to succeed, and he fails to consistently utilize the talent around the QB that he has been given to him (Montgomery, Mooney, Kmet, etc.). His ego continues to stand in the way of sustained success (refusing to give up play calling for most of the season, and then meddling in the offense the least two games of the season). His hand picked QB (Foles), who was supposed to be the savior of this offense, absolutely flopped. His lack of situational awareness and killer instinct has cost the Bears victories on multiple occasions (see Chargers loss in 2019 and Lions loss in 2020).

I'm not holding back. Grade: F

Bill Lazor

It's pretty clear that Mark Helfrich was a Nagy scapegoat after the 2019 season. However, I will give some credit to Bill Lazor as a new hire at OC. In the few games where he was able to control the offense, the Bears seemed to click, albeit against subpar opponents. That being said, Lazor displayed a willingness to play to his players' strengths (a quality Nagy lacks), and most importantly, he finally made David Montgomery the focal point of the offense.

I'm not going to overreact to a few games against subpar competition, but I was pleasantly surprised by the late season offensive performances under Lazor's direction. Grade B

Chuck Pagano

Another coach I'm not holding back on:

Pagano has been almost as awful as Matt Nagy these last two season's. Fortunately for him, the talent he was given defensively was enough to hide his faults until late in 2020. For a franchise that prides itself on tough, mean defense, I have not seen a defensive coordinator this soft in a LONG time. I noted continually during the 2019 season that the Bears defense was under-performing, and it was in direct relation to a lack of aggressiveness. Sack and turnover numbers have been down drastically the last two seasons, and on too many occasions, the Bears defense gave up long 3rd down conversions and long drives when they most needed stops. Pagano was so afraid of his defense making mistakes, he opted to sit in a shell with a "bend don't break" approach instead of letting the dogs loose. Regressions across the board from top defensive talent (most notably Eddie Jackson who was being forced to play out of position, thus limiting his big play abilities) and a complete misuse of key players (like Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn being consistently used in pass coverage instead of attacking the QB) doomed this talented unit.

The offense has been crucified for their performance the last two seasons, but the defense has to share a lot of the blame as well. Pagano was a major detriment to this unit and its personnel. His retirement is a blessing. Grade D+

Chris Tabor

I'm torn on Chris Tabor. On one hand, there is some definite positives on special teams for the Bears. Cairo Santos may have finally solved the revolving door the Bears have had at kicker. He wasn't just serviceable, he was an asset. Additionally, Cordarrelle Patterson continued to be a top kick returner in the NFL. However, there was still a lot to be desired in other aspects. Punt coverage and punt returns were of most concern. The Bears finished 24th in punt net average and 22nd in return average. Now some of the return struggles can be attributed to missing Tarik Cohen, but good special teams coaches find a way to adjust.

I feel as though I (and Bears fans) may have been spoiled by the Dave Toub days. Tabor has been decent, but I still want to see more out of this unit. Grade B

Honorable Mention: Juan Castillo

Juan Castillo was one of the bigger names in a new position across the NFL this season. He was brought in to try and help a fledgling OL unit that needed help. Early season returns looked promising, but as competition stiffened and the unit lost it's best player (James Daniels), the OL became a major problem area once more. However, a mid-season shuffling of the IOL allowed for a couple of Castillo favorites (UDFAs out of ND, Alex Bars and Sam Mustipher) to finally get their shot, and the results were strong. 

Due to this emergence, the IOL of the Bears looks to be in good shape moving forward. Castillo has seemingly put this unit headed in the right direction, and with some improvements in personnel at the tackle positions, could have the Bears OL as an overall strength next season. Grade B+

 

Up next on the Bears 2020 season in review: The QBs

2021 Chicago Bears Off-season Central

Following an 8-8 season and a disappointing playoff performance, the Chicago Bears enter the 2021 off-season with more questions than answers

Welcome to Chicago Bears 2021 off-season central! Below are (will be) links to posts I will make throughout the off-season so they are easy access for anyone who wants to follow along with my opinions and analysis of this very crucial Bears off-season.

Topics

• 2020 Season in Review
• Management and the Coaching Staff
• The QBs
• Offensive Skill Players
• Offensive Line
• Defensive Line
• Linebackers
• Defensive Backs
• Specialists
  
• How the Bears Should Approach the 2021 Off-season
• Free Agency Preview
• NFL Draft Primer

Additional topics will be added as necessary