Week 1 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

"Let Russ cook" set the league on fire early last season. A new OC in Seattle may let us all experience it once more in 2021.

The 2021 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers edging out a 31-29 victory over the Dallas Cowboys . Today we get our first NFL Sunday of the season! Let's dive in to some of my top gambling picks of the day:

Pick of the week: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

I'm buying in heavily to the change at offensive coordinator for the Seahawks. I think that the 'Hawks will unleash the "Let Russ cook" movement we saw in the first half of last season once again. The Colts have a solid enough defense, but their pass defense is not elite. This should open the door for Russ and the 'Hawks to have a big game. Combine that with the Colts having lost 7 straight opening games and Seattle look awfully tempting at -2.5.

Other Picks

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks defense was much maligned last season, especially through the air. I think Carson Wentz can unlock the potential of the Colts offense this season. I like Over 49 Sea/Ind as another strong play. Another game total I'm targeting is Over 53.5 Ari/Ten. These are two high-powered offenses that are tailored to attack the weaknesses of each other's defenses. This should be a fun one. The final game total I want is Over 47 Min/Cin. Cincy's defense is incredibly weak and I am not a believer of Minnesota's defense yet. There is simply too much offensive talent in this game for me to shy away. 9.5 points is not enough for me to avoid SF (-9.5) @ Det. The Niners are back to full health this season and Detroit is completely devoid of talent. Finally, an underdog target I like is Phi (+3) @ Atl. Although I'm wary of trusting Jalen Hurts, a match-up with the Falcons is one that he and the Eagles offense can exploit. I actually like the Eagles straight up in this one.

DFS Picks (FanDuel)

QB:

• LBBs (Lineup building blocks): Kyler Murray ($8400), Jalen Hurts ($7600)
  

As I mentioned above, I'm expecting a shootout in Tennessee. Murray should be able to stack points in this one. If you're looking to save a little extra cash, Jalen Hurts is another strong option against an incredibly weak Falcons secondary. His strong rushing upside could lead to a huge performance on opening weekend.

• GPP plays: Trevor Lawrence ($6800), Carson Wentz ($6500)
  

I'm pretty high on Trevor Lawrence this season, and he opens the year against a woeful Houston team. There is some risk here since we haven't seen him yet, but the upside is real. If you want a real diamond in the rough pick, Carson Wentz could be it. As I already mentioned, Seattle's passing defense is very exploitable. It's risky because it's Wentz, but he's still an intriguing option.

RB:

• LBBs: Dalvin Cook ($9400), James Robinson ($5900)
  

Cook should have completely fresh legs and be in line for a heavy workload in this one. Combine that with Cincy's defensive deficiencies, he's one to build a lineup around for sure. James Robinson is simply too cheap for the role/match-up he has this week.

• GPP plays: Alvin Kamara ($8600), Jamaal Williams ($4900)
  

 If you're looking for a cheaper pivot off of the big three RBs on the slate this week (McCaffrey, Henry, and Cook), Kamara is a great option. In two games against the Packers in his career, Kamara has dropped 41.4 FDP and there's no reason to think that trend shouldn't continue. If you're looking for some extreme savings at the RB position, Williams should have a good enough role to provide value. I expect the Lions to be in a negative game script, opening the door for Williams to do some work in the passing game.

WR:

• LBBs: Calvin Ridley ($8100), Michael Pittman ($5300)
  

Kyle Pitts may eventually become a star in Atlanta, but for now, Calvin Ridley is still top dog. The Eagles secondary is exploitable and Ridley should be in for a lot of usage in this one. As I have mentioned countless times in this post, the Seahawks secondary is BAD. Michael Pittman should be in for a good target share in this one, and thus is the Colts WR to target.

• GPP plays: Tyler Lockett ($6800), Parris Campbell ($5000)
  

Lockett is a true boom or bust play this week, but I'm leaning towards boom. DK Metcalf got all the hype last year during the "Let Russ cook" days, but Lockett was right there with him putting up huge numbers. If you're looking for a contrarian play off of Pittman against the Seahawks, Parris Campbell is your guy. Injuries have kept Campbell from achieving any of the hype surrounding him, but there was hype for a reason. Wentz also tends to like targeting his slot guys. Something to consider.

TE:

• LBBs: Travis Kelce ($8500), Jonnu Smith ($4900)
  

Travis Kelce could probably fall into this category every single week. That goes double on weeks he faces teams who aren't great at stopping TEs (like the Browns). Jonnu Smith is a must for me at $4900. He should have a pretty good target share, making him a much better option at his cost despite the tougher match-up. I'm a fan of punting at TE with Smith and spending elsewhere.

• GPP plays: Austin Hooper ($5100), Tyler Conklin ($4400)
  

The Browns are reportedly planning to get Austin Hooper a lot more involved this season. I'm gonna buy that hype for at least week 1 in a good match-up. If you really want to punt on TE altogether, Tyler Conklin is an option. He's no guarantee to even receive a large amount of snaps (Chris Herndon is also in Minnesota now), but he is the incumbent following an Irv Smith injury. You could do worse than him.

DST: 

• Cash play: 49ers ($5000)
  

This one is pretty self-explanatory. The Lions lack anything that resembles talent offensively. If you have the cash, don't overthink this one.

• GPP play: Jaguars ($3900)
  

Houston is another team that is lacking talent offensively. Jacksonville doesn't have a particularly strong defense, but they do have a few playmakers. This is a pretty interesting defense to target this week if you want to save a little cash.

My main slate lineup for the week: