Monday, March 24, 2025

Where do the Creighton Bluejays go from here? Things might be more promising than you think...

 

Ryan Kalkbrenner and Steven Ashworth embrace after a tough loss in the NCAAT to #1 overall seed Auburn. The two seniors were critical to the Bluejays' success during their respective Creighton careers, and their impacts won't soon be forgotten by the fans

To say that this is the end of an era might be an understatement. The Creighton Bluejays are saying goodbye to an all-time great in Ryan Kalkbrenner, and their leader at PG the last two seasons in Steven Ashworth. That alone is tough enough, even before you add in losing Jamiya Neal and the high impact he made in his one year with the program.

But Creighton has been here before. In 2014, they had to say goodbye to one of the all-time greats in college basketball history, Doug McDermott. Then again in 2021, the Jays lost their entire starting 5, a crop of players that delivered both the program's first Big East regular season title and its first trip to a Sweet 16. Both times there were serious questions about whether or not the Bluejays could rebound from their losses and continue their ascension in the college basketball world. And both times Creighton and head coach Greg McDermott found a way.

The post-Dougie era was difficult at first as the Jays went 14-19 in year one. But ever since that first season, Creighton has never had less than 20 wins in a season. Only Kansas, Gonzaga, Belmont, Oregon, and Houston can make that same claim. High-impact transfers in Mo Watson Jr. and Marcus Foster bridged the gap to the signings of Mitch Ballock/Ty-Shon Alexander and Marcus Zegarowski/Christian Bishop in back to back years. Then in 2021 when it seemed like the Jays were headed for another huge rebuild, the "Baby Jays" of Ryan Nembhard/Trey Alexander/Arthur Kaluma teamed up with the aforementioned Kalkbrenner and veterans Alex O'Connell/Ryan Hawkins and almost stole a Sweet 16 bid from #1 Kansas. 

Creighton now heads into another period of uncertainty. However, this time things feel a little different. In both 2014 and 2021, the Jays lost major pieces just like they are now. However, one thing they did not have at those times was established players who were clear building blocks for the future. That same thing can't be said for this version of the Creighton Bluejays. Below we'll take a look at the current state of the roster, the recruiting class, and the transfer portal to lay out what could be on the horizon in the coming months.

Current Roster

G Pop Isaacs SR (JR?)

Stats: 16.3 PPG 4.8 RPG 3.9 APG .410/.383/.862

Pop was the big get in the portal for the Jays this past off-season. After a huge 27 point showing in an upset of #1 Kansas, he looked like the real deal. However, season-ending hip surgery derailed what could have been a very promising season. I feel pretty confident he'll be back in Omaha next year due to him having a basically guaranteed high-usage role. His shot-making ability will make him a key leader for next year, and possibly for 2 years if he gets granted an extra year of eligibility.

(Update 03/24/25 4:25 est: Hearing rumblings that Pop Isaacs has entered the portal. +/- following Ryan Miller to Murray State. Rapid analysis is that it hurts, but is easily offset with the right portal additions. There may have been long term injury concerns over his hip, which could be a blessing in disguise. Losing him again next season would be a killer blow we likely couldn’t recover from)

F Jackson McAndrew SO

Stats: 7.8 PPG 4.4 RPG 1.9 3PM .397/.354/.656

The Jays highest-rated recruit ever did not disappoint in his freshman season. As his defense improved, he became more established in the rotation and was a key part of Creighton's success this year. He hit a total of 7 threes in the NCAAT while shooting at a 47% clip from deep. Next year I expect him to take a big leap and become more than just a shooter. He flashed ability to put the ball on the deck and score out of the post as well. He should be a focal point for a likely high-octane offense next season. If his defense continues to improve as well, he has the ability to be one of the best players in the Big East.

F Jasen Green JR

Stats:  4.9 PPG 3.2 RPG 1.0 APG .557/.267/.659

The ultimate "Glue Guy", Jasen basically does whatever is asked of him on both ends of the floor. Late in the year, he started to show his offensive chops, averaging 7.6 PPG on 61% shooting over his final 10 games, including a 19 point outburst against UConn in the Big East semifinal. As a local kid with a growing role, I don't see Green going anywhere. Lock him in at the starting 3 for next year and expect much of the same lunch pale attitude. He could even carve out a bigger offensive role, especially if he improves his 3pt shot.

F Isaac Traudt JR

Stats:  4.6 PPG 2.2 RPG 1.1 3PM .433/.384/.941

In his second year in Omaha, Traudt settled into a nice role for himself as a stretch big shooting 38% from deep. However, his role diminished a bit down the stretch as Jasen Green's expanded. I think the Nebraska native is back again next year in a similar role. If he can improve his interior defense to where he can be consistently trusted to play the 5, he increases his PT opportunities while providing McDermott added flexibility with his lineups. There's sneaky upside here for Traudt to be a sizeable contributor off the bench.

G/F Fedor Zugic SO

Stats:  4.5 PPG 11.8 MPG .484/.400/.727

It took a while for us to get to see what the 6'6" Montenegran could do, but once Zugic got fully acquainted with Creighton's system, you could see why Jays fans were so excited. He has the ability to be the Jays best 3-level scorer since Marcus Foster. I believe in his court vision and passing instincts as well which could lead him to be a good creator for others as well. At the very least, he will be a high-impact 6th man next season. At his peak, him and Pop could form a lethal duo at the guard spots reminiscent of Ty-Shon and Zegarowski.

C Fredrick King Jr. SR

Stats:  18.2 Pts/40 8.6 Reb/40 2.8 Blk/40 .667 FG%

Fred King's biggest flaw? He is not Ryan Kalkbrenner. It's hard to blame the kid for not living up to an all-time Creighton legend, but many fans had higher expectations for King and he hasn't delivered consistently enough. Now that he's finally out from behind Kalkbrenner, there's question whether he'll remain with the program. I believe that King will probably hit the portal as a change of scenery could be good for him. But if he is back, there's still flashes we've seen that make you believe in him. Maybe getting out of Kalkbrenner's shadow will be what lets him finally break out.

F Mason Miller SR

Stats:  1.1 PPG 1.6 RPG 11.8 MPG .217/.171/.667

I don't think I've ever witnessed a basketball player have the "yips" before, but I'm pretty sure we just watched Mason Miller go through a whole season of them. Your heart had to break for the kid who has suffered multiple injuries and worked so hard, just to watch him completely fall off from being the top shooter in the Big East to only making 17% from deep. I think Miller is a lock to follow his uncle, Ryan, to Murray State. A fresh opportunity and a larger role could unlock his untapped potential.


G Ty Davis SO

Stats:  28 games 7.1 MPG .368 FG%

Davis is a true wildcard this off-season. On one hand, I could see him hanging around and getting a shot at the starting PG spot. On the other, Mac could bring in a veteran PG through the portal and Davis could hit the portal himself. It's easy to see the potential Ty has. He has good size at 6'4" and great length that makes me believe he could be a pesky defender. He also averaged 4.4 Ast/40 so the playmaking ability is there as well. Mac has a great history of developing PGs, and I think Davis checks a lot of the key boxes.

G Shane Thomas SO

Stats:  24 games 4.2 MPG

Shane Thomas was a great story this season as he earned a surprise scholarship as a Christmas present. He is a physical defender that I believe has some quality traits that could make him a fine contributor on a mid-major team somewhere. I think he probably hits the portal looking for an opportunity for regular playing time while moving down a level of competition.

Incoming Recruits

G/F Hudson Greer 4* Florida

The Jays are getting a good one in Hudson Greer.  He has great size standing at 6'6" with plenty of athleticism to spare.  He is the prototypical Greg McDermott high IQ player with the raw skills to back it up. Greer is effective on the offensive side of the floor both from deep (39% career 3pt shooter) and while attacking the basket. He also makes an impact on the defensive end and on the glass. It is easy to project him having a Jackson McAndrew-type arc in his freshman season. Gradually getting more involved as the year goes on then being a key contributor come March. He oozes potential thanks to the combination of his basketball IQ and his raw skills/athleticism. I think it is fair to project him as a Baylor Scheierman-type player (multi-faceted contributor on both ends of the floor). Whether he can be even near the level of what Baylor was for Creighton will be revealed with time. But if he can even deliver as a Scheierman-lite version, there is a ton to love about this kid.

C Aleksa Dimitrijevic UR Serbia

Currently, the biggest name the Jays are still chasing on the recruiting trail is the 7'0" 215 lb C out of Serbia, Aleksa Dimitrijevic. At the FIBA U18 last summer, Dimitrijevic averaged 10.4 PPG 7.1 RPG 2.7 BPG and 2.1 APG. Creighton needs to find some way to replace Kalkbrenner in the long run, and Dimitrijevic could be that guy. He has a lot of similar traits that Kalkbrenner had coming out of high school: great length and instincts defending the rim combined with a strong ability to finish around the rim and in the post. There is a lot of raw ability to love here, but an emphasis on the word "raw". The coaching staff will have to work hard with him to get the most out of his abilities. He's unlikely to be a heavy contributor in his first season if he comes to Omaha, but a year of development could deliver a very high-end player. The Jays are competing with both Michigan and Illinois at the moment. However, they did recently pick up a crystal ball prediction from Joe Tipton at On3.

G/F Kelvin Odih 4* California

The last name worth mentioning for now is a wing out of California in Kelvin Odih. Odih originally committed to West Virginia, but recently asked to be granted a release following the news that Darian DeVries left for Indiana. Since he has re-opened his commitment, he has heard from multiple programs, including Creighton. It is worth noting that the Jays did make it all the way into Odih's top 6 during his initial recruitment, so there's good reason for optimism here. His calling card will likely be his defense where he is able to heavily pressure ball handlers. His athleticism allows him to recover even if he gets beat and to guard multiple positions. Offensively his profile reminds me of Arthur Kaluma. Very bully ball-esque with some up and down shooting from deep. But with his defensive ability, he could be a very nice asset alongside some of the other offensive-heavy recruits Creighton tends to land. The Jays haven't had a true lockdown defender since Ty-Shon Alexander. It sure would be great to have another one.

Transfer Portal

G/F Josh Dix Iowa SR 6'6" 210



Stats: 32.3 MPG 14.4 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.8 APG 2.0 3PM .507/.422/.766

Dix to Creighton is a no-brainer connection. The rising senior out of Council Bluffs could move even closer to home and play just across the state line in Omaha. He’s a clear scheme fit for McDermott’s wide open offense that favors shooters who know how to get to their spots. His size and his ability to put the ball on the deck make him a great all-around scorer. Adding him to what is already in place on this roster would certainly give the Jays one of the more potent offensive attacks in college basketball. 

C Owen Freeman Iowa JR 6'10" 245



Stats: 26.4 MPG 16.7 PPG 6.7 RPG 1.8 BPG .638/.313/.600

I fully expect McDermott and co. to raid the Hawkeyes for at least one of their top transfers following Frank McCaffrey’s departure. Freeman was Iowa’s leading scorer this season, and he did it on incredible efficiency shooting nearly 64% from the floor. He is an absolute load to guard in the paint at 245 lbs and is touted as one of the best post scorers in the Big 10. He’s also developing as a shooter, making 5 of 16 (31.3%) from deep this season. Though lesser know for his defense, he did accumulate 1.8 BPG each of the past two seasons. He’s unlikely to fill the entire void left by Kalkbrenner, but he could fill a large chunk for the next two seasons.

F Nick Davidson Nevada SR 6'10" 238



Stats: 33.1 MPG 15.8 PPG 6.5 RPG 2.8 APG 1.2 BPG 1.4 3PM .500/.371/.699

Davidson is another big that Creighton has been linked to that should be intriguing to fans. He is a “new school” big man who scores in the paint and from beyond the arc. He’s also adept at getting his teammates involved, averaging nearly 3 assists per game this past season for the Wolfpack. His ability to get to run an offense through him could be a nice dynamic for McDermott to add to his bag. My main concern with him, however, is that he is not a high-level defender. The Jays won’t be able to fully replace Kalkbrenner on that end of the floor. But the hope would be to find someone who can provide enough rim protection so that Creighton can continue defending at a high level. I question Davidson’s ability to provide that, and hence my reservations about him despite what I love about his offensive game. 

G Wes Enis Lincoln Memorial (DII) JR 6'2" 200



Stats: 35.8 MPG 20.3 PPG 4.6 RPG 2.9 APG 3.2 3PM .449/.413/.847

The last name I’m going to throw on this list is an interesting one. Enis is a DII transfer out of Lincoln Memorial in Tennessee. He’s extremely popular, already being contacted by 75+ teams, and it’s not hard to see why. He can score in bunches and is a high-level shot maker from all over the floor. Though he only averaged about 3 assists per game, I think he has the ability to put up some good assist numbers, especially in a McDermott offense. On top of all of that, he’s also an outstanding defender who brought home the South Atlantic Conference DPOY award this past season. I think he is a dream get for the Jays, but he will be extremely difficult to land. However, with Creighton having a PG-friendly system and a clear need at the position, I think they have quite a bit to offer to give themselves a shot. 

Final Thoughts

Overall, I like what the Jays have in place already to start this off-season. The floor is in a good spot, but the ceiling could be raised significantly over the next few months. You also always have to keep and eye on McDermott and his staff making moves all throughout the summer months. They are notorious for pulling names out of nowhere that people didn’t expect like Jamiya Neal, or pouncing on recruits at the very last minute like Trey Alexander and Fedor Zugic. 

So sit back and enjoy the off-season Jays fans. November will be here before you know it, and we could be looking at the start of another great era for Creighton basketball. 

Roll Damn Jays!




Saturday, September 11, 2021

Week 1 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

"Let Russ cook" set the league on fire early last season. A new OC in Seattle may let us all experience it once more in 2021.

The 2021 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers edging out a 31-29 victory over the Dallas Cowboys . Today we get our first NFL Sunday of the season! Let's dive in to some of my top gambling picks of the day:

Pick of the week: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

I'm buying in heavily to the change at offensive coordinator for the Seahawks. I think that the 'Hawks will unleash the "Let Russ cook" movement we saw in the first half of last season once again. The Colts have a solid enough defense, but their pass defense is not elite. This should open the door for Russ and the 'Hawks to have a big game. Combine that with the Colts having lost 7 straight opening games and Seattle look awfully tempting at -2.5.

Other Picks

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks defense was much maligned last season, especially through the air. I think Carson Wentz can unlock the potential of the Colts offense this season. I like Over 49 Sea/Ind as another strong play. Another game total I'm targeting is Over 53.5 Ari/Ten. These are two high-powered offenses that are tailored to attack the weaknesses of each other's defenses. This should be a fun one. The final game total I want is Over 47 Min/Cin. Cincy's defense is incredibly weak and I am not a believer of Minnesota's defense yet. There is simply too much offensive talent in this game for me to shy away. 9.5 points is not enough for me to avoid SF (-9.5) @ Det. The Niners are back to full health this season and Detroit is completely devoid of talent. Finally, an underdog target I like is Phi (+3) @ Atl. Although I'm wary of trusting Jalen Hurts, a match-up with the Falcons is one that he and the Eagles offense can exploit. I actually like the Eagles straight up in this one.

DFS Picks (FanDuel)

QB:

  • LBBs (Lineup building blocks): Kyler Murray ($8400), Jalen Hurts ($7600)

As I mentioned above, I'm expecting a shootout in Tennessee. Murray should be able to stack points in this one. If you're looking to save a little extra cash, Jalen Hurts is another strong option against an incredibly weak Falcons secondary. His strong rushing upside could lead to a huge performance on opening weekend.

  • GPP plays: Trevor Lawrence ($6800), Carson Wentz ($6500)

I'm pretty high on Trevor Lawrence this season, and he opens the year against a woeful Houston team. There is some risk here since we haven't seen him yet, but the upside is real. If you want a real diamond in the rough pick, Carson Wentz could be it. As I already mentioned, Seattle's passing defense is very exploitable. It's risky because it's Wentz, but he's still an intriguing option.

RB:

  • LBBs: Dalvin Cook ($9400), James Robinson ($5900)

Cook should have completely fresh legs and be in line for a heavy workload in this one. Combine that with Cincy's defensive deficiencies, he's one to build a lineup around for sure. James Robinson is simply too cheap for the role/match-up he has this week.

  • GPP plays: Alvin Kamara ($8600), Jamaal Williams ($4900)

 If you're looking for a cheaper pivot off of the big three RBs on the slate this week (McCaffrey, Henry, and Cook), Kamara is a great option. In two games against the Packers in his career, Kamara has dropped 41.4 FDP and there's no reason to think that trend shouldn't continue. If you're looking for some extreme savings at the RB position, Williams should have a good enough role to provide value. I expect the Lions to be in a negative game script, opening the door for Williams to do some work in the passing game.

WR:

  • LBBs: Calvin Ridley ($8100), Michael Pittman ($5300)
Kyle Pitts may eventually become a star in Atlanta, but for now, Calvin Ridley is still top dog. The Eagles secondary is exploitable and Ridley should be in for a lot of usage in this one. As I have mentioned countless times in this post, the Seahawks secondary is BAD. Michael Pittman should be in for a good target share in this one, and thus is the Colts WR to target.
  • GPP plays: Tyler Lockett ($6800), Parris Campbell ($5000)
Lockett is a true boom or bust play this week, but I'm leaning towards boom. DK Metcalf got all the hype last year during the "Let Russ cook" days, but Lockett was right there with him putting up huge numbers. If you're looking for a contrarian play off of Pittman against the Seahawks, Parris Campbell is your guy. Injuries have kept Campbell from achieving any of the hype surrounding him, but there was hype for a reason. Wentz also tends to like targeting his slot guys. Something to consider.

TE:

  • LBBs: Travis Kelce ($8500), Jonnu Smith ($4900)

Travis Kelce could probably fall into this category every single week. That goes double on weeks he faces teams who aren't great at stopping TEs (like the Browns). Jonnu Smith is a must for me at $4900. He should have a pretty good target share, making him a much better option at his cost despite the tougher match-up. I'm a fan of punting at TE with Smith and spending elsewhere.

  • GPP plays: Austin Hooper ($5100), Tyler Conklin ($4400)

The Browns are reportedly planning to get Austin Hooper a lot more involved this season. I'm gonna buy that hype for at least week 1 in a good match-up. If you really want to punt on TE altogether, Tyler Conklin is an option. He's no guarantee to even receive a large amount of snaps (Chris Herndon is also in Minnesota now), but he is the incumbent following an Irv Smith injury. You could do worse than him.

DST: 

  • Cash play: 49ers ($5000)

This one is pretty self-explanatory. The Lions lack anything that resembles talent offensively. If you have the cash, don't overthink this one.

  • GPP play: Jaguars ($3900)

Houston is another team that is lacking talent offensively. Jacksonville doesn't have a particularly strong defense, but they do have a few playmakers. This is a pretty interesting defense to target this week if you want to save a little cash.


My main slate lineup for the week:
 

Monday, January 25, 2021

Chicago Bears 2020 Season in Review: Offensive Skill Players

 

David Montgomery established himself as one of the rising stars at RB in the NFL in 2020. He is a key part of the Bears' offense going forward.

Running Backs

David Montgomery

In an offense that struggled mightily throughout the season, Montgomery was one of the lone bright spots as he piled up over 1500 yards from scrimmage despite running behind a subpar OL for most of the year. Monty specialized at making something out of nothing, finishing 9th in rush yards over expected (per NGS), and finishing runs with some impressive power (finished 3rd in broken tackles behind Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry and T-2nd in rushing attempts per broken tackle).

For a guy who "lacks burst", Montgomery sure showed a lot of burst in 2020. His short area quickness was impressive on film, and it opened the door to turning broken plays into positive gains or moderate gains into bigger plays. And when give the opportunity, he showed he could turn on the afterburners and go for 6. His development as a receiver was also a pleasant surprise. Grade A+

Tarik Cohen

Tarik Cohen's season was unfortunately cut short due to an ACL tear in week 3 against the Falcons. His performance to that point left some to be desired. Cohen is certainly a player that can be used as a Swiss army knife offensively and provide a good amount of value. However, he needs to be used properly, and I worry about that going forward with Matt Nagy Grade Incomplete

Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson is another gadget-type player that can be used all over the offense. In 2020, he was used more as a RB, especially following the injury to Tarik Cohen. Many people were frustrated with Patterson's use at RB, and understandably so. Patterson got too many snaps instead of Montgomery for much of the year, and that can't happen. Despite some fans' frustrations with Patterson even being used as a RB at all, I'm actually quite ok with it. I did notice improvements in his vision as the season went on, and Patterson is a playmaker in space. Resigning him for special teams reasons and using him in the occasional package at RB seems like a good approach to 2021 for me. Grade C

Ryan Nall

Nall is a classic example of a Matt Nagy obsession. He simply doesn't have the necessarily tools for be a successful RB in the NFL, but Nagy let him be part of the backup rotation despite having an options like Lamar Miller and Artavis Pierce (more on him in a second) available. I don't want to see him back with the team next season. Grade D+

Artavis Pierce

Just as Ryan Nall is a classic example of a Matt Nagy obsession, Pierce is a classic example of a young player being blocked from showing what he can do (we'll get to Riley Ridley in a minute). From the little bit we saw of Pierce, he looked like he had some explosive traits in him. It's a shame we couldn't see what he could do in an expanded role. Hopefully he's with the team come August and we can maybe see him in some full preseason action. Grade Incomplete

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson

Robinson continued to show why he is considered to be one of the better WRs in the NFL. He remained a reliable, steady target for the Bears turnstile at QB. Despite another strong season-long performance from A Rob, I must admit that I do want to see more out of him. His RAC ability leaves something to be desired and his ability to win contested catches faltered at times. He also disappeared in the last two games of the season when the Bears most needed victories (albeit not entirely on him).

I want to bring Robinson back on an extension, however, I'm hesitant to pay him true WR1 money as he hasn't quite shown that yet. He has all the tools to get there though, so paying up for that could pay dividends for an offense in need of playmakers. Grade B+

Darnell Mooney

What an absolute find Mooney was by Pace in the 2020 draft. Despite being limited by Nagy's nonsensical scheme, Mooney was able to put on a show with his route running abilities. The lack of big plays is not on him, as on too many occasions he created huge separation, but was missed by his QB. Mooney looks to be the real deal at WR, and hopefully the Bears offense can find a way to get more out of his abilities in 2021 Grade A-

Anthony Miller

It has been a true disappointment to watch the downfall of Anthony Miller. Following a promising rookie season, the last two have been marred with inconsistency and lost focus. I'm still a firm believer in his talent, but it's likely that he's going to need a fresh start. Getting tossed from the playoff game after mixing it up with CJ Gardner-Johnson was probably the final nail in the coffin. Grade C-

Javon Wims

Wims provided some intriguing depth during the 2019 season, postulating that he could be a contributor during the 2020 season. However, this never came to fruition as he failed to find his footing early in the season. The wheels came completely off in week 8 against the Saints when his lack of discipline got him ejected after he threw haymakers at CJ Gardner-Johnson. His poor season was capped with a critical drop on a wide open TD in the playoffs against the Saints. Grade D-

Riley Ridley

Yet another talented player being stonewalled by Nagy's stubbornness, Ridley continues to struggle to see the field (or even be activated). In the little bit we have been able to see of him in his two seasons, Ridley has impressed on the field. The only question is whether or not he'll get to prove it more consistently in 2021. Grade Incomplete

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

Brought in to help fix some of the Bears red zone woes and to be a mentor to the young and talented Cole Kmet, it's suffice to say that Graham's 2020 season was a successful one. Despite his lack of efficiency (a career low 9.1 YPC), he was still able to contribute 8 TDs. On top of that, his mentorship of Cole Kmet was evident.

The Graham signing was met with a lot of criticism in the 2020 off-season, but the move ended up achieving its goals. That's a nice positive. Grade B+

Cole Kmet

The pick of Kmet at 43rd overall was another move in the 2020 off-season that was met with a lot of criticism. That criticism was heightened as he failed to contribute early in the season, registering only 6 receptions for 79 yards and a TD in weeks 1-9. However, during that time period, he wasn't being used too often (failing to break a 50% snap share in any of those contests). Starting in week 10, Kmet started to dominate the share of snaps at the TE position (averaging >80% of the offensive snaps) to produce 22 receptions for 164 yards and another TD.

His lack of use up the seam was frustrating (yet another player being misused by Nagy), but his ability to add tough yards after the catch and his advanced abilities as an in-line blocker were definitely positive signs of things to come. Grade A-

Demetrius Harris

Harris was another veteran brought in to help stabilize a poor TE unit from 2019. He was supposed to be a solid Y TE who could contribute some in the passing game. However, he was unable to produce much on either end of the spectrum, and his playing time dropped to essentially zero by the end of the season. Grade C-

JP Holtz

Holtz showed a lot of promise as a lead blocker/FB type in 2019 and even a little bit as a contributor in the passing game. However, he seemed over-matched in that same role in 2020. He may return in 2021 in the same role, but I would hope the Bears would look elsewhere for improvement. Grade D

 

Up next: Offensive Line

Previous: Management and Coaching Staff, QBs

Friday, January 15, 2021

Chicago Bears 2020 Season in Review: The Signal Callers

Mitchell Trubisky may have played his final game as a Chicago Bear. The former number two overall pick has not panned out in his first four professional seasons.


Mitchell Trubisky

Trubisky's 2020 season actually started off well with a rousing 4th quarter comeback against the Lions and a solid performance against the New York Giants in week 2. But following a difficult first half and early third quarter interception, Matt Nagy inexplicably pulled the trigger to bench Trubisky for Nick Foles against the Falcons in week 3.

Following a 6 game losing streak and a Nick Foles injury, Trubisky was able to regain the starting position for the rest of the season. Strong performances against the Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars were overshadowed by offensive struggles against the Packers (twice) and Saints. However, based on my observations this season, it seems as though Mitch played better than advertised. It feels as though he was hamstrung by the ineptitude of his "offensive guru" head coach.

Mitch's performance in 2020 certainly left much to be desired, but I definitely saw improvements. I just wish we could have seen what a Lazor/Mitch combination would have looked like without any Matt Nagy intrusion in the bigger games (Packers and Saints). Grade B-

Nick Foles

Foles was brought in to be a veteran presence at QB who could compete with Trubisky for the starting job. Despite losing the QB battle in camp, Foles stayed ready and relieved Trubisky to help the Bears complete a big comeback victory over the Falcons in week 3. However, Foles was vastly underwhelming from that point forward. He was supposed to be Nagy's hand-picked guy to run his scheme, but that completely backfired as the Bears offense sputtered for weeks (capped off with an awful 15/26 106yd performance against the Vikings on MNF in week 10). 

Foles' athletic limitations were a detriment to the offense as a whole, and they were further exacerbated by poor OL play and a nonsensical scheme during the Bears 6 game losing streak. I still understand why the Bears pursued him (especially in the midst of a COVID-19 off-season), but the end results were not great. Grade D+

 

Up next: Offensive Skill Players

Previous: Management and Coaching Staff 

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Chicago Bears 2020 Season in Review: Grading the One's at the Top

In three seasons, Matt Nagy sports a respectable 28-20 record with two playoff appearances. However, his team's have greatly under-performed the last two seasons, heating his seat up to dangerous levels

Success starts at the top, right? Let's start our 2020 season in review by taking a look back at how those in charge performed during the Bears 8-8 campaign.

Ryan Pace

Pace seemingly had a mixed bag of success in 2020. On the positive side, he absolutely nailed the 2020 draft class, which at the very least does give some young talent the Bears can build off of. Previous draft picks like Roquan Smith and David Montgomery also blossomed as young stars. Pace also continued to make the right moves defensively, retaining under the radar players like Roy Robertson-Harris and bringing in the right veterans to fill key holes (Barkevious Mingo, Mario Edwards, Tashaun Gibson). However, his biggest off-season acquisition (Robert Quinn--more on him in a future post) has been met with a lot of backlash, especially as Bears fans watched Leonard Floyd tear it up in LA (10.5 sacks) . He also made the mistake letting both Nick Kwiatkowski and Kevin Pierre-Louis walk while retaining an aging Danny Trevathan. Low cost options on the offensive side of the ball (Ted Ginn, Nick Foles, Germain Ifedi) mostly flopped, contributing to some of the offensive struggles in 2020.

It wasn't Pace's best off-season in 2020, however he was able to find some incredible value in the draft, thus buoying his grade. The emergence of UDFAs on the OL (Mustipher and Bars) helps as well. Grade: B-

Matt Nagy

I'm going to be blunt:

Nothing about Matt Nagy's performance in 2020 was good. Schematically, this team had no identity offensively. He continued to make awful personnel decisions that hurt the team (Rashad Coward over Alex Bars/Sam Mustipher, benching Mitch Trubisky for Nick Foles, refusing to give Cole Kmet snaps until 2/3 of the way through the season, misusing Jimmy Graham and David Montgomery, an unhealthy obsession with Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall at RB and not giving Artavis Pierce a chance, continually inactivating Riley Ridley in favor of less talented WRs, a la Javon Wims, and many more).

Nagy was brought in to Chicago to be an "offensive guru" and to take Mitch Trubisky and this offense to the next level. However, he has done the exact opposite in his three seasons. He has refused to call a scheme to put his young QB in a position to succeed, and he fails to consistently utilize the talent around the QB that he has been given to him (Montgomery, Mooney, Kmet, etc.). His ego continues to stand in the way of sustained success (refusing to give up play calling for most of the season, and then meddling in the offense the least two games of the season). His hand picked QB (Foles), who was supposed to be the savior of this offense, absolutely flopped. His lack of situational awareness and killer instinct has cost the Bears victories on multiple occasions (see Chargers loss in 2019 and Lions loss in 2020).

I'm not holding back. Grade: F

Bill Lazor

It's pretty clear that Mark Helfrich was a Nagy scapegoat after the 2019 season. However, I will give some credit to Bill Lazor as a new hire at OC. In the few games where he was able to control the offense, the Bears seemed to click, albeit against subpar opponents. That being said, Lazor displayed a willingness to play to his players' strengths (a quality Nagy lacks), and most importantly, he finally made David Montgomery the focal point of the offense.

I'm not going to overreact to a few games against subpar competition, but I was pleasantly surprised by the late season offensive performances under Lazor's direction. Grade B

Chuck Pagano

Another coach I'm not holding back on:

Pagano has been almost as awful as Matt Nagy these last two season's. Fortunately for him, the talent he was given defensively was enough to hide his faults until late in 2020. For a franchise that prides itself on tough, mean defense, I have not seen a defensive coordinator this soft in a LONG time. I noted continually during the 2019 season that the Bears defense was under-performing, and it was in direct relation to a lack of aggressiveness. Sack and turnover numbers have been down drastically the last two seasons, and on too many occasions, the Bears defense gave up long 3rd down conversions and long drives when they most needed stops. Pagano was so afraid of his defense making mistakes, he opted to sit in a shell with a "bend don't break" approach instead of letting the dogs loose. Regressions across the board from top defensive talent (most notably Eddie Jackson who was being forced to play out of position, thus limiting his big play abilities) and a complete misuse of key players (like Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn being consistently used in pass coverage instead of attacking the QB) doomed this talented unit.

The offense has been crucified for their performance the last two seasons, but the defense has to share a lot of the blame as well. Pagano was a major detriment to this unit and its personnel. His retirement is a blessing. Grade D+

Chris Tabor

I'm torn on Chris Tabor. On one hand, there is some definite positives on special teams for the Bears. Cairo Santos may have finally solved the revolving door the Bears have had at kicker. He wasn't just serviceable, he was an asset. Additionally, Cordarrelle Patterson continued to be a top kick returner in the NFL. However, there was still a lot to be desired in other aspects. Punt coverage and punt returns were of most concern. The Bears finished 24th in punt net average and 22nd in return average. Now some of the return struggles can be attributed to missing Tarik Cohen, but good special teams coaches find a way to adjust.

I feel as though I (and Bears fans) may have been spoiled by the Dave Toub days. Tabor has been decent, but I still want to see more out of this unit. Grade B

Honorable Mention: Juan Castillo

Juan Castillo was one of the bigger names in a new position across the NFL this season. He was brought in to try and help a fledgling OL unit that needed help. Early season returns looked promising, but as competition stiffened and the unit lost it's best player (James Daniels), the OL became a major problem area once more. However, a mid-season shuffling of the IOL allowed for a couple of Castillo favorites (UDFAs out of ND, Alex Bars and Sam Mustipher) to finally get their shot, and the results were strong. 

Due to this emergence, the IOL of the Bears looks to be in good shape moving forward. Castillo has seemingly put this unit headed in the right direction, and with some improvements in personnel at the tackle positions, could have the Bears OL as an overall strength next season. Grade B+

 

Up next on the Bears 2020 season in review: The QBs

Monday, January 11, 2021

2021 Chicago Bears Off-season Central

Following an 8-8 season and a disappointing playoff performance, the Chicago Bears enter the 2021 off-season with more questions than answers

Welcome to Chicago Bears 2021 off-season central! Below are (will be) links to posts I will make throughout the off-season so they are easy access for anyone who wants to follow along with my opinions and analysis of this very crucial Bears off-season.

Topics

Additional topics will be added as necessary

Saturday, October 3, 2020

Week 4 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Preston Williams ($5500 on FD) hasn't quite recaptured his 2019 pre-ACL form yet, but a matchup with an exploitable Seattle Seahawks secondary in an explosive, high-scoring game (Total 54.5) could be just the right mix for a breakout performance

"You didn't see anything". 

My week 3 ATS picks were an illusion (just like week 1). They don't exist. Week 4 is all that matters.

Week in review ATS: 1-5 (pick of the week: L)

Season ATS: 7-10-1 (picks of the week: 2-1)

Pick of the Week: Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans (-3.5)

I believe the Texans to be a better team than the 0-3 record indicates, while the Vikings are right about in line with their 0-3 record. The Texans have had a very difficult schedule to open their season (@Chiefs, Ravens, @Steelers) and now they face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Fortunately, they get to end the first quarter of their season with a soft home matchup against a Vikings team who can't stop anybody defensively and have had their share of struggles offensively. I expect a big game out of Watson and co. this Sunday

Other Picks

I've had some early success picking the Bears this season, so I'm gonna roll with Ind @ Chi (+3) to help get my picks back on track. I think the Colts are overrated and the Bears are underrated. If the Seattle Seahawks a playing a game this season, I want the over on that game. Over 54.5 Sea @ Mia is not nearly enough points to scare me away. Put me down for Under 54 NO @ Det. Alvin Kamara may run wild on the Detroit defense, but I'm not buying Drew Brees without Michael Thomas and the Saints D should be able to hold Detroit in check enough. Don't look now, but the Bills and Raiders have been two of the more high-powered offenses in the league to start the season. Over 52.5 Buf @ LVR in what could be an intriguing shootout. Finally, I'll cap off my pick with a MNF one. Over 56.5 Atl @ GB almost seems too easy in a game that could turn into the equivalent of a college shootout. Those chances get even higher if the trio of Ridley/Julio/Adams all suit up.

DFS Picks

Week in review:

  Name Cost FDP Value
QB Stud Russell Wilson $8,700 36.8 4.2
  Sleeper Mitch Trubisky* $7,500 12.6 1.7
 
Ryan Tannehill $7,400 13.2 1.8
  Fade Justin Herbert $7,200 15.7 2.2
RB Stud Derrick Henry $8,200 26.0 3.2
  Sleeper Kenyan Drake $6,500 8.4 1.3
 
Joshua Kelley $5,900 4.2 0.7
  Fade Jerrick McKinnon $5,700 15.2 2.7
WR Stud Chris Godwin** $7,900 14.9 1.9
  Sleeper Terry McLaurin $6,700 10.6 1.6
 
DK Metcalf*** $6,500 17.0 2.6
  Fade Calvin Ridley**** $8,000 14.2 1.8
TE Stud None NA NA NA
  Sleeper Noah Fant $5,800 7.1 1.2
 
Jonnu Smith $5,600 8.6 1.5
  Fade None NA NA NA
DST Stud Chargers $5,000 4.0 0.8
  Sleeper Buccaneers $3,800 18.0 4.7
  Fade 49ers $4,600 12.0 2.6

*Trubisky was benched in the third quarter against the Falcons

**Godwin left his game with with a hamstring injury

***Metcalf fumbled away a walk-in TD in the first quarter against the Falcons. That's what you get for showboating before the job is done

****Ridely did most of his damage on the Falcons' first play from scrimmage, but was held relatively in check after that

Week 4 picks:


  Name Opp Cost
QB Stud Kyler Murray Car $8,400
  Sleeper Ryan Fitzpatrick Sea $7,100
 
Jared Goff NYG $7,500
  Fade Josh Allen Buf $8,600
RB Stud Dalvin Cook Hou $8,700
  Sleeper James Robinson Cin $6,600
 
David Johnson Min $6,700
  Fade Joe Mixon Jac $6,800
WR Stud Tyler Lockett Mia $7,500
  Sleeper Preston Williams Sea $5,500
 
Robert Woods NYG $6,700
  Fade Mike Evans LAC $7,400
TE Stud Darren Waller  Buf $6,700
  Sleeper TJ Hockenson NO $5,400
 
Rob Gronkowski LAC $5,200
  Fade Mike Gesicki Sea $5,700
DST Stud Ravens Was $5,000
  Sleeper Bears Ind $4,100
  Fade Colts Chi $4,900

QB:

The QB position this week is filled with a lot of options, so picking out the right players could be difficult. However, give me Kyler Murray to bounce back strong against an exploitable Panthers defense and return some good value. Ryan Fitzpatrick is my all around favorite play this week. Any QB playing the weak Seahawks secondary deserves a long look in DFS, and Fitz has the gunslinger ability to drop a lot of points at a fraction of the cost. Jared Goff might fly under a lot of people's radars, but he's quietly been putting together a strong campaign. The Giants may look good on paper against the pass, but they were torched in week 1 by Ben Roethlisberger. LA should be able to exploit them as well. Josh Allen has been pretty much matchup-proof early this season, but he's in a spot here where I don't love him. The Raiders just shut down Cam Newton and they stifled Drew Brees in their only home game this season. Allen will also likely be pretty popular and I don't love the price. If you're in this price range for QB, you're better off spending the extra $400 for Russell Wilson or saving $200 for Kyler Murray.

RB:

Dalvin Cook has been an absolute workhorse to start the season and has provided good consistency as well. Volume, consistency, and matchup are a tantalizing combination in DFS. James Robinson has been all over the field for the Jaguars thus far this year. His involvement in the passing game is a big boost for his fantasy value, as is a soft matchup against the Bengals. David Johnson has been a victim of a tough early season schedule, but he finally gets one he can exploit in week 4. I expect him to take advantage. Joe Mixon looks like he's going to play after being a surprise late week addition to the Bengals' injury report, but I'm avoiding him. I think the Bengals will look to exploit Jacksonville's weak secondary, limiting Mixon's upside. Robinson and DJ are better options for the same cost.

WR: 

Tyler Lockett has been the definition of a stud so far this season though, and he gets another strong matchup again this week. DeVante Parker will no doubt be very chalky against Seattle, but I'm diving a little deeper an picking the starting WR opposite of him: Preston Williams. Williams hasn't quite recaptured his early season success from last season as he works his way back from an ACL injury, but a breakout could very well be on the horizon. All Robert Woods does is catch footballs and produce. The Giants secondary is nothing to write home about and Woods should make the perfect stack with Goff. Last time Chris Godwin was out I tried fading Mike Evans and it didn't work out too well. This time I feel a little better about it since Evans has to face a much tougher test in the Chargers corners. I'd avoid him at this price.

TE: 

Darren Waller struggled last week after dealing with a nagging injury, but he looks to be fully healthy now. The Bills got absolutely worked by Mike Gesicki in week 2, and Waller is not only a better talent but should have more opportunity with the Raiders being down both of their starting WRs (Ruggs/Edwards). New Orleans has struggled mightily against TEs to this point of the season, thus making TJ Hockenson a cash-saving upside play this week. If you're someone who likes to take risks, look no further than Rob Gronkowski. Chris Godwin's absence should open up some targets for the rest of the offense, and while the Chargers are strong on the outside, they're desperately missing Derwin James at the safety positon. Gronk used to be a matchup nightmare, let's see if he's still got it. Finally, I expect Mike Gesicki to be pretty chalky, so that's a good reason to look elsewhere. Another is that WRs are responsible for most of the damage against the Seattle secondary, not TEs. Gesicki could be fool's gold this week.

DST:

There is no doubt the Ravens will be massive chalk this weekend, but for good reason. Washington should be a super exploitable matchup and Baltimore should come out pissed off after their performance on MNF last week. I think the Bears may feast on Philip Rivers this week. The switch to Foles at QB may allow Chuck Pagano to be more willing to get aggressive defensively, and when that happens the Bears are notorious for forcing turnovers and creating TDs. On the other side of that game, don't buy into the Colts this week. I'm not saying the Bears offense will be world beaters, but they will certainly put up better fights than the Colts opponents to this point. Being almost identical in price as the Ravens, just spend up for the Ravens.

 

Here are my lineups for the week:

Main Slate











SuperFlex


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Good Luck!