Week 13 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Last week was just straight up not a pretty weekend for my football-wise. My fantasy and gambling picks did not go well at all. But we get right back up on that horse and give it another go. 

Last week: 2-5 Overall: 13-8-1

• Jets (-3) @ Bengals
  

I really like the brand of football the Jets have been playing of late. Sam Darnold is in a groove and the defense has been improving. Andy Dalton takes the reins back for the Bengals in offense, but I don’t think that matters much. 

• Titans (+1) @ Colts
  

This game has big time playoff implications on both sides. Winner stays in the hunt, loser is likely done. The Titans offense has been humming ever since they switched over to Ryan Tannehill and the Colts offense has struggled without TY Hilton. That’s enough for me. 

• Packers (-6.5) @ Giants (under 45)
  

I’m toeing a precarious line here with this spread and under pick, but I’m going to lean towards the Giants offense continuing to struggle and the Packers to be inconsistent. 

• Browns/Steelers under 39
  

This is going to be a UFC fight, not a football game. I don’t expect to see a whole lot of offense in this game. Just a lot of guys lining up and smacking each other in the mouth. 

• Buccaneers/Jaguars over 47
  

Death. Taxes. And Buccaneers games hitting the over. Listen, the formula is simple: the Bucs offense is high powered and their defense stinks. Sprinkle in some decent firepower from the opposing offense and you’ve got yourself a nice over. 

• Patriots/Texans under 46
  

I seriously considered taking the Texans (+3) here as a bold pick, but I don’t have those kind of stones lol. Instead I’ll stick with the under. The Patriots have been unimpressive on offense of late and I think they can stifle the Houston offense enough to keep the game low scoring. 

• Seahawks (-3) v. Vikings (under 50)
  

These picks are both predicated on “primetime Kirk Cousins” showing up. Until I see him perform admirably in a primetime matchup, I’m gonna pick against him and his team.  

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Patrick Mahomes ($8600), Sam Darnold ($7600), Carson Wentz ($7300)
  

Last time the Chiefs played the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes absolutely torched them on the road. Expect more of the same coming out of a bye and at home. Don’t look now, but Sam Darnold is blossoming right before our eyes. He gets another soft matchup against the Bengals this week. I understand if Carson Wentz’s recent struggles scare you off, but the Dolphins secondary is decimated and he also gets Alshon Jeffery back this week. 

• RB: Aaron Jones ($8000), Le’Veon Bell ($7300), Miles Sanders ($5800)
  

Aaron Jones has been a stud all season when he gets to face weak defenses. The Giants should offer a nice bounce back opportunity. I bet on a Le’Veon breakout last week and it didn’t exactly happen despite modest results. Let’s try this one again against a horrible Bengals run D. Tried betting on Miles Sanders last week as well and the results were just ok. Jordan Howard is our yet again and the Dolphins offer up a golden opportunity for a big game. 

• WR: Cooper Kupp ($7800), DJ Moore ($6800), Dede Westbrook ($5700)
  

The Cardinals have not been very good against slot receivers all season. Despite Jared Goff’s struggles, I like the upside of Kupp this week. DJ Moore has been on an absolute tear of late. His current price feels like highway robbery. Dede Westbrook has had 15 targets over the last two weeks with Nick Foles under center and has a weak Buccaneers secondary across from him this week. 

• TE: Travis Kelce ($7100), Darren Waller ($6100), Tyler Higbee ($5500)
  

Travis Kelce tends to abuse the Oakland Raiders and their secondary. He’s worth the price this week. On the other side of the field, Darren Waller gets a promising matchup to bust out of his recent slump. Normally, I would pass on Tyler Higbee who is stepping in for the Gerald Everett, but the Cardinals are dead last against TEs in fantasy so the upside is too good to pass up. 

• DST: Chargers ($3900), Steelers ($3700)
  

The Broncos aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire offensively this season. Should be plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers for a hungry Chargers defense this week. As I mentioned above, I think the Browns/Steelers is going to be a bloodbath this week. Both defenses should be intriguing picks this week, but the Steelers price tag is tantalizing. 

Week 12 NFL and DFS picks

I had another strong week last week (6-1) to push my picks record to 11-3-1. Let’s keep the momentum going:

• Falcons (-3.5) v. Buccaneers
  

I’m buying the Falcons of late, especially their defense. The Bucs are a team in disarray right now, and I think the Falcons can capitalize. 

• Steelers (-6.5) @ Bengals
  

I have my concerns about trusting the Steelers on the road, but the Bengals can make any team look Super Bowl caliber. I think the additional layoff from Pittsburgh’s last game will be beneficial. 

• Dolphins/Browns under 46.5
  

This over/under just seems to be a little too high to me for two offense that have struggled to find consistency this season. These two defenses have also shown some improvement of late. 

• Saints (-9.5) v. Panthers
  

The magic that Kyle Allen had to begin his career as a starter is now gone. Last week, he was demolished by a Falcons defense that is a few steps down from this Saints D. Also, betting the Saints at home is always a pretty safe bet. 

• Jets (+3.5) v. Raiders
  

Here’s my bold pick of the week. I’ve really liked what I’ve been seeing out of the Jets offense the last couple games. They are starting to look more like what everybody thought they would look like before the season started. That coupled with a west coast team traveling cross country for a 1pm eastern start leads me to think an upset is in the works. I’m taking the Jets straight up, so give me those extra 3.5 points. 

• Lions (-4) @ Redskins (over 40)
  

NFL gambling 101: find the team playing the Redskins, and bet them. Victory is assured. Both defenses in this game are terrible, so the over looks tantalizing as well. 

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Matt Ryan ($7900), Sam Darnold ($7400), Nick Foles ($7200)
  

This is my third straight week picking a QB against the Bucs defense. The last two went pretty well. The Bucs are horrible against the pass. As I mentioned above, the Jets offense has been much improved of late, specifically because of Sam Darnold (24.06 ppg in last two). The Raiders pass D is nothing to be afraid of. Make that two straight appearances for Nick Foles in my picks. Last week was a modest performance (18.84 points) and I think he’ll have a better game this week against a weaker pass D (22nd against the pass). Utilize the savings you get from him to spend elsewhere. 

• RB: Le’Veon Bell ($7200), Joe Mixon ($6700), Miles Sanders ($5600)
  

Can you tell I’m buying the Jets this week? Le’Veon Bell hasn’t had a big, explosive game yet this season, but his last three he’s started to find some consistency (15.7 ppg). At his cost, that consistency and upside should be in your lineups. Despite appearances, there is actually one strong fantasy asset in the Bengals offense. Mixon’s volume (averaging 23 touches per game the last 3) gives him a high floor, and his talent gives him high ceiling. Jordan Howard is reportedly out again this week. Miles Sanders had a lion share of the snaps at RB last week. The Seahawks front 7 is pretty decent, but at his cost I like the opportunity to garner sneaky value from Sanders this week. 

• WR: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley ($8400/$6700), DJ Chark ($7000), Jamison Crowder ($6500), Jordan Matthews ($4500)
  

Did I mention the Bucs pass D is atrocious? Stack Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley (or both) with Matt Ryan this week and enjoy the fireworks. Nick Foles gives a huge boost to DJ Chark’s fantasy potential. Keep expecting big things out of that connection. Jamison Crowder is that guy nobody talks about, but continually puts up big numbers. In his last three games, he’s averaged 17 ppg, making him a low cost option that can boom big. If you really wanna dig deep this week, take a look at Jordan Matthews. He had 6 targets in his first game with the Eagles last week. 

• TE: Zach Ertz ($6100), Ryan Griffin ($5600), Vance McDonald ($5300)
  

Alston Jeffery looks like he’s going to play, but I’m not wavering from Zach Ertz. Ertz has 11 targets in each of the last two games, and now he gets to face a subpar secondary in Seattle that is 27th against TEs. Ryan Griffin is a true boom or bust guy. He could easily go over 20 points in a game, but he can also go for 2. Choose at your own risk. Vance McDonald should have the opportunity to garner more targets this week with Juju Smith-Schuster being out. You could do worse at this position than him. 

• DST: Steelers ($5000), Falcons ($4300)
  

Find defense playing against the Bengals. Pick said defense. If you want an upside defense at a lower cost, take a look at the Falcons. They’ve averaged 18 ppg the last two weeks (one of those at the Saints) and now they get Jameis Winston: king of all things turnovers and sacks. 

Let’s talk about that speed option play....

A lot has been made and talked about regarding the debacle that happened on Sunday night. I have many things I would like to say on a variety of topics, but currently I am still waiting on the All-22 film to be available to go over some things, so I will wait until I can look at that and do a post at a later time. 

For now, I want to talk a little bit about that 3rd and 1 play call in the second half that seems to be a hot topic for...... well literally everyone. Everyone seemingly has an opinion on that play, and I have some (very) strong ones myself. So here we go. 

This play call was absolutely atrocious, and for so many reasons. Let’s start with a simple one:

Third and short is absolutely positively never a doubt in no uncertain terms NOT a situation to EVER call a speed option. It is not a good play call at ANY level (even youth and high school football), let alone in the NFL. There are simply too many things that could go wrong execution-wise that could cause the play to get blown up. It is a slow developing play in a situation where the defense is attacking hard. Third and short situations require the offense to be aggressive and fast in order to counter what the defense is throwing at them. A speed option just isn’t it. 

So let’s move on to execution:

I’ll admit, the play actually sets up decently from what can be seen from the broadcast view. The o-line and Ben Braunecker all get a hat on a hat and leave the DE on an island, a perfect set up for a speed option. However, Mitch Trubisky doesn’t attack downhill and force the DE to make a decision. He prematurely flips it to Montgomery, who ends up getting stretched out wide and going for a loss. 

The argument from people who want to defend Nagy is that this play set up perfectly, and if executed by Mitch properly, goes for an easy first down. 

Listen, I’m not going to disagree with that assessment. However, I’m gonna back this up to my previous point. In this situation, the play needed perfect execution to work, and the Bears didn’t have it. This is not even mentioning the fact Nagy called the play to the short side of the field (which is absolutely an inexcusable mistake). That’s is why so many other play calls are better in this situation. For example, lining up under center (in the I or singleback) and just doing a simple dive handoff has a much higher chance of success. Multiple things can go wrong on a play like that (missed block, penetration, etc.), but all it takes is a RB at full speed to hit the hole hard and keep his legs churning to pick up a measly yard. That’s it. But in this situation, Nagy decided to go with the "cute" play call that required the perfect execution. Which leads me into my next point:

This play call does not put this team specifically in the best position to succeed. 

The Bears have struggled everywhere and with everything this season on offense. So why on an important 3rd and 1 are to putting pressure on your pourous offensive line and your struggling QB (who is dealing with a shoulder injury AND apparently a hip injury that occurred in this game)?

This is not even mentioning the one thing the Bears have been doing well of late:

The I-formation

For the past couple weeks, the Bears have lined up more in the I-formation and attacked downhill with a fullback and a David Montgomery. So why in such an important situation, are you not leaning on the tried and true? Let JP Holtz lead block and go kill another person (like he’s been doing so frequently of late) and let your tough SOB of a RB put his head down and churn his legs. I guarantee you, the Bears pick up the first down in that situation if they go double TE I-formation right up the middle. Show confidence in your offensive line and your RB in this situation and smack the other team right in the mouth. You have no idea the kind of confidence boost that can give your offense and your team as a whole when you get down and dirty in that situation. I am furious that Nagy decided to go soft when he had a perfect opportunity send a message to his whole team (and the league). This is the play that ended the Bears season (and should end Nagy’s coaching tenure with the Bears)

Week 11 NFL and DFS picks

In my first effort making picks last weekend, I made out pretty well (5-2-1). Let’s see what I got this week:

• Cowboys (-7) @ Lions

I feel like the Cowboys really need this game, and a soft Lions team comes at the right time. Despite being on the road, I think the Cowboys can easily handle the Lions and get back on track. 

• Jaguars/Colts over 43

Nick Foles is back, and so is Jacoby Brissett. I think this game ends up having a few points scored in it. 

• Saints/Buccaneers over 49.5

I was actually surprised to see this game not even over 50. Marshon Lattimore is out, so the Bucs should be able to find some success through the air. Vintage Brees may show up this week against a bad Bucs secondary. 

• Jets (-2.5) @ Redskins

The Redskins are a bad football team. This pick could easily backfire because the Jets aren’t much better, but I’ll take my chances. 

• Falcons/Panthers over 49.5

Both defenses in this game are atrocious. I don’t expect a repeat of the Falcons performance defensively from last week, so I’ll take the over here. 

• Bengals/Raiders under 48.5

Finally an under! The Raiders may score 35, but is anybody betting on the Bengals breaking 10?

• Bears/Rams under 39.5

This is a low number of points, and I’m still taking the under. Everybody knows about the Bears struggles offensively this season. But have you heard about the Rams? The Bears defense is very banged up, but they’ve still done a solid job of not letting up a whole bunch of points. This may end up being an ugly, low scoring defensive battle. 

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Dak Prescott ($8100), Jameis Winston ($7600), Nick Foles ($7000)

Dak is in the midst of a strong stretch fantasy-wise. Detroit’s defense is coming off of giving up 3TDs to Mitch Trubisky. With Marshon Lattimore being out, Jameis has a shot to blow the top off of the Saints defense this week. People forget, but before Minshew mania started, Nick Foles got off to a hot start in week 1 against the Chiefs. This isn’t the best of matchups, but Foles is still a nice upside play here. 

• RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($8400), Tevin Coleman ($6700), Brian Hill ($5900)

I’m addition to feeling Dak this week, I’m also a fan of Zeke as well. The Lions run defense is pourous so it’s possible both him and Dak can have big games. Tevin Coleman may look like a good pick on paper, but there’s some definite risk. Nonetheless, he could pop off for a huge game. Brian Hill should get a ton of run against a very bad run defense in Carolina. For the price, he should be a great low cost option. 

• WR: Mike Evans ($8200), Jamison Crowder ($6500), DJ Moore ($6000)

Again, Marshon Lattimore is out this weekend. Take advantage by going out and getting Mike Evans. Jamison Crowder has had two straight strong games. The Redskins pass defense is actually solid, but Crowder could still find a path to success. DJ Moore’s target share has been very high of late and he’s been taking advantage. The Falcons pass D is very bad and this game should be a high scoring affair. Moore is a strong option. 

• TE: Darren Waller ($6700), Jared Cook ($6000), Ross Dwelley ($4900)

Waller hasn’t been on point of late, but the Bengals bad defense gives him a shot to perform highly in this game. Jared Cook and Drew Brees are always a good match. Pile on with players in this Bucs/Saints game. If you’re looking for a low cost option/feeling risky, the Cardinals are an NFL-worst against TEs for fantasy. Take advantage by picking Dwelley. 

• DST: Cowboys ($4100), Eagles ($3200)

I’m pretty high on the Cowboys weekend as you can tell. Facing a backup QB in Jeff Driskel, I think the defense can take advantage. If you’re feeling risky (or you’re just looking for a placeholder defense to save cash), I actually would take a chance on the Eagles. The defense has been playing well of late and they get the Patriots at home. 

Week 10 film review roundup: An improvement, but still more to go

So that's what winning feels like.

It has been a little while, but the Bears finally snapped their 4 game losing streak with a 20-13 victory over the Lions Sunday. Not only that, but the offense also showed some signs of life, including three TD passes from Mitch Trubisky.

I took a look at the film again this week (both offense and defense this time) and wanted to share some of my thoughts on the game and the team moving forward.

Mitch Trubisky: Plenty of good, and a little bit of bad

I'm going to start off by saying this: I thought Mitch played very well in this game. I don't believe the early game struggles were on him (he made a couple of good throws and did not get help from his WRs) and he had a nice little stretch from the end of the second quarter throughout the third quarter.

That being said, his performance was not without its flaws. Here are just a couple things I noticed on the film:

• On the first TD drive, Trubisky actually misses A. Robinson breaking wide open down the field for an easy TD (see the two images below). Now he eventually hit B. Braunecker on a beautiful TD pass two plays later, but this is the kind of opportunity you'd like to see Mitch not miss
  
  
• On one of the 4th quarter drives that stalled, Trubisky took a sack on 3rd and 11. The Lions brought pressure and no one was open down the field, however, Mitch missed B. Braunecker who was wide open on a crossing route that could have went for a first down (see image below).
  
• Some shaky pocket presence on a few occasions leading to off-balance throws or missed chances to step up
• A couple of other missed throws that really should be made

Now these are issues that will certainly need correcting, but I didn't see anything too egregious in his performance. Especially considering a couple of really impressive plays/throws he was able to make (including an absolute dime down the field to a covered A. Robinson while he was getting hit and turning in a respectable gain after averting disaster on a bad snap by Whitehair).

Nagy still being Nagy/stubborn

I'm going to keep saying this until he learns his lesson, but Nagy needs to table some of his offensive dreams until this offense gets humming. He also needs to stop trying to get so cute in certain situations. This means sticking with the power run game when it was working instead of switching into the shotgun; and for the love of God, please don't call an empty set on third and 1. That's inexcusable.

Nagy also needs to learn how to balance out his aggressiveness more. I loved that he grew a pair in the second quarter and went for a gutsy 4th and 1 from the Bears own 29. But there was a situation later in the game where the Bears had 3rd and 1 in the 4th quarter and he called a play action shot play (one in which A. Robinson actually stayed in to block). Now I actually like that kind of aggressive play call if it was earlier in the game. But in a situation where you have a lead you're trying to protect and you want the clock to keep running, you want to make sure you get the first down in that situation.

On the flip side, on 3rd and 7 with 1:55 to go in the game and the Lions having two timeouts, I absolutely think he should have thrown the ball in that situation. It was the perfect opportunity to run another rollout pass play (which the Bears had successfully executed twice to that point in the game) to try and pick up a game winning first down. With the Lions having two timeouts remaining at that point, running the ball to force them to burn a timeout doesn't do that much. I'd rather be aggressive and take the shot to win the game.

I will give Nagy credit though, he finally seems to be using T. Cohen properly. The TD pass from Trubisky was on an exceptionally well designed play and is exactly the type of play that Cohen is perfect for.

Offensive line issues persisting

The Bears finally made the decision this week to swap C. Whitehair back to center and J. Daniels back to guard in order to try and improve their offensive line play. The result?

Meh

While it did seem like there was a little better communication up front, there were still issues. J. Daniels did not have his best game at LG, but hopefully he'll improve as he gets more comfortable. R. Coward continues to be very bad and I seriously think he needs to be benched (blocking TE/OL C. Lucas actually looks pretty good whenever he comes in, so either him or A. Bars needs to get a look ASAP). B. Massie also continues to have his issues, but I will stipulate that he seemingly improved as the game went on. Both C. Leno and C. Whitehair played decently, but both need to improve and be more consistent (especially Whitehair with his snaps).

Defensive issues persisting

Lets be clear on one thing first: the words "issues" is a relative one here. The Bears defense is still doing pretty well this season, but the unit is nowhere near its scary self from last season (or even early this year).

Injuries have taken their toll, especially on the D-line. The D-line has really struggled to create consistent pressure on passing plays and consistently stop the run (aside from Nick Williams who has looked very impressive).

These struggles have seemingly extended to the back end on defense as well. More than a few times I noticed the Bears not having the best of coverage in the secondary on passing plays. Both K. Fuller (DPI and holding penalties, blown coverage on Golladay TD) and E. Jackson (missed a couple of guys in coverage) aren't playing up to the level we've come to expect of them. Improvement in this area would go a long way in helping the defense overall.

It also looks like the Bears D is having a lot of communication issues. More than a few times I saw them having trouble getting into proper pre-snap alignments and also not making the proper pre-snap adjustments (a couple times they faced overloaded fronts and didn't adjust the D-line accordingly).

Additional comments

• Replacing D. Trevathan's talent and intensity will be a tough task, but N. Kwiatkowski  is one tough SOB
• D. Montgomery's blend of power and patience is special and fun to watch
• It may just be me, but K. Mack looks a bit off. He's still being very involved in games and a high end player, but there were a few plays I noticed that he usually makes that he couldn't quite get. Have to wonder if he's getting worn down by offenses without Hicks in the lineup
• A. Robinson is a true number 1 WR and needs more plays drawn up for him
• The Bears defense is beyond poor at diagnosing and stopping screen plays
• JP Holtz needs some love. He is an excellent lead blocker
• Poor execution stalled a promising early 4th quarter drive that could have put the game away (Trubisky forced a shot play instead of taking the open crossers underneath on first down, R. Coward missed a key block on a Cohen run on second down that could have been big, bad play design out of an empty set had WRs running into each other on third down coupled with poor protection). The Bears will need to execute better in these situations in the future in order to put games away.

What is ahead?

The Bears will travel to Los Angeles this week to face the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The Rams are reeling right now and are also one of the teams ahead of the Bears in the NFC playoff hunt. This is another critical game for the Bears, and a victory this week could be huge in reigniting their playoff hopes. 

Week 10 NFL and DFS picks

Here are my thoughts on this weekend’s NFL matchups ATS and some DFS picks to look out for. 

NFL:

• Bears (-2.5) vs. Lions

Call this one a little home cooking, but I’m feeling a bounce back from the whole Bears team this weekend. Detroit’s incredibly weak defense opens the door for a confidence building game for the offense.

• Ravens (-10.5) @ Bengals

Road divisional game is no worry for the more talented and explosive Ravens. The Ravens defense will likely feast on Ryan Finley in his first career NFL start. 

• Bills (+3) @ Browns (under 40.5)

I’m honestly not even sure how the Browns are favored in this game. Road game or not, the Bills are a better all around football team. Give me the Bills straight up in a low scoring affair.

• Cardinals @ Buccaneers over 52

This game will turn into a shootout early with two very high powered offenses playing two very bad defenses. Make this bet and then just pray "bad Jameis" doesn’t show up.

• Steelers (+4) vs. Rams (over 43.5)

The Rams coming off of a bye may be enticing, but I’m not loving them as 4 point favorites on the road against a suddenly hot Steelers team (even without James Conner). I actually have the Steelers straight up in this game, but even if the Rams win I think a FG victory is within range for the cover. I also like the over (43.5 should be doable for these two offenses)

• Under 48.5 Dal/Min

Minnesota will be without Adam Thielen again this week and Dallas does a solid job against the run defensively. I’m thinking this one stays relatively low scoring, maybe both teams break into the 20s, but stays under. 

DFS picks (with FanDuel prices): 

• QB: Kyler Murray ($7700), Jameis Winston ($7900), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7100)

With one of the highest over/unders on this week’s slate, I’m buying both QBs in the shootout between the Cardinals and Buccaneers. If you’re looking for a DFS longshot, Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a solid bet. He’s been over 20 points in 2 of his last 3.

• RB: David Montgomery ($6400), Devin Singletary ($6700), Kalen Ballage ($4600)

The Bears have made a strong commitment to running the football the last two weeks, and there’s nobody else getting the carries besides Montgomery (over 20 points each of the last two weeks) against a very bad Lions run D. Devin Singletary now looks like the clear top dog in the Buffalo backfield after a 20 carry performance last week. He’s explosive and he faces a weak Cleveland run D this week. If you really want to dive deep this week, Kalen Ballage is the starting RB for the Miami Dolphins and he doesn’t really have a lot of competition. He probably won’t rack up the yards, but if he falls into the end zone once for a TD he’s a nice little piece. 

• WR: Zach Pascal ($6400), Christian Kirk ($5700), DeVante Parker ($5800)

Zach Pascal has had a couple of strong performcanes of late. With TY Hilton out, he’s stepped in to get a larger target share and made it work, regardless of who is under center. Christian Kirk looks to be fully healthy and plays a horrible Bucs secondary. He’s a nice stacking player to combo with Murray this week. DeVante Parker seems to finally be finding his groove in Miami. Since Fitzpatrick has taken over, he’s really started to shine. His price is too nice to pass up this week. 

• TE: Austin Hooper ($6600), OJ Howard ($5000)

The Saints are a tough defense, but Hooper has been as solid as them come in fantasy this season. And he won’t set you back too much. Call it a hunch, but I think OJ Howard could have his best game of the season this weekend. Arizona is bad against TEs. Stack with Jameis at your own risk. 

• DST: Bills ($4500)

Turnovers and sacks. Buffalo forces them, and the Browns give them up. Spend the little extra coin to get these guys this week.

Comparing last year's playoff game to this season: Are there differences in how the offense functions?

After doing my deep film review of the Bears/Eagles game earlier this week, I got curious to try and compare how the offense is functioning this season compared to last season.

I think last year's Eagles games is a pretty good one to compare for a couple reasons. For one, the Bears just played the Eagles with both teams having relatively the same personnel. Additionally, the Bears put up 356 yards of total offense in that game (despite only scoring 15 points), so it's a pretty good comparison point to a time when the Bears offense was humming.

So I went through that game film and took down some information, and then I watched/re-watched the game film from the Bears last two games (Chargers/Eagles). Here's a breakdown of some of the things I found:

Shotgun plays:

• Playoff game: 52 play calls (42 pass plays)(87% of play calls)
• M. Trubisky: 23/38 (+4-5 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 297 yards and a TD, 2 scrambles for 10 yards and 2 coverage sacks, 8 mistakes (19% of dropbacks) by Trubisky by my count (2 poor reads and 6 missed throws)
• 7 rushes for 45 yards (12 on a run against prevent D and 21 on a reverse: 5 for 12 yards without)
• Last 2 games: 72 play calls (51 pass plays)(65% of play calls)
• M. Trubisky: 25/42 (+2-3 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 280 yards and an INT, 4 scrambles for 19 yards and 6 sacks (1 coverage, 1 bad taken), 6 mistakes (12% of dropbacks) by Trubisky by my count (fumble on a sack, INT thrown, 3 missed throws, 1 bad sack taken)
• 18 rushes for 86 yards (55 on one carry: 17 for 31 without)

The Bears have actually ran a lower percentage of their plays out of the shotgun in this comparison, which I wasn't initially expecting. In the last two games, there has been a more concerted effort to run the ball overall, leading to more carries out of the shotgun. That being said, the Bears had 17 of those runs in the Chargers game, showcasing a shift in the play calling to focus on more under center and downhill runs. One thing that does stand out to me is the lower percentage of "mistakes" that Trubisky is making. Of course, this number can be subjective. What I based it on is any throws that Trubisky missed an open WR or made a poor read to throw into coverage, along with any turnovers or sacks that he took that shouldn't have happened. Now there are always things that could be more on him that could be counted (poor audibles, protection adjustments, etc.) so I don't want this to sound like he's not making mistakes. The point was merely to compare between the games, and I stayed consistent with my judgements between them. One thing that also stands out is the sheer number of sacks, which I'll get in to next.

Clean pocket pass plays:

• Playoff game: 38/43 pass plays (88% of dropbacks)
• M. Trubisky was 22/35 (+3-4 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 280 yards and a TD, 1 scramble for 4 yards, 7 mistakes by Trubisky (2 poor reads and 5 missed throws)
• Under pressure: Trubisky was 2/5 for 14 yards, 1 scramble for 6 yards, 1 mistake (a missed throw he should have made)
• Last 2 games: 40/56 pass plays (71% of dropbacks)
• M. Trubisky was 25/37 (+2-3 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 211 yards and an INT, 2 sacks (1 coverage, 1 bad taken), 3 mistakes by Trubisky (INT thrown, missed throw, bad sack taken),
• Under pressure: Trubisky was 2/6 for 4 yards, 3 scrambles for 12 yards and 4 sacks, 1 mistake by Trubisky (a fumble)

Now here is where we are starting to see some differences.We were all thinking it, but now here is the hard proof. Trubisky is definitely under more pressure this season. The offensive line has been struggling mightily this year, and that is certainly contributing to the issues offensively. A near 20% increase in pressures is inexcusable. But why has pressure been so increased? Well from the film, I'll start off by saying that it isn't always just free runners. A lot of the time, the offensive line is able to stay engaged, but they get driven backwards and deposited into Trubisky's lap (see James Daniels on the third play from scrimmage this past Sunday against the Eagles). What I also noticed from the film is that teams are often bringing more pressure overall while pressing the Bears receivers (especially the Eagles). Whether this is just teams forcing the Bears WRs to beat them (and they aren't) or teams forcing Trubisky to speed up his clock and make mistakes is unclear. What I will say is that despite Trubisky's struggles with accuracy and efficiency this season, he has not been picked off much (only 3 so far this season). What can definitively be determined from this data is that Trubisky, like all other QBs, does well with a clean pocket. We just haven't see it that much this season.

Quick passing plays (pass in < 2.3 seconds):

• Playoff game: 12/14 for 127 yards (+1 completion that could have been made by WRs), 1 missed throw by Trubisky
• Last two games: 11/14 for 66 yards (1 incompletion under pressure)

Here is another fundamental difference in the Bears scheme. In the playoff game, the Bears focused on getting the ball out of Trubisky's hands quickly. On top of that, many of the plays called were designed to get WRs open quickly (including a saucy double move by Robinson that went for a 45 yards completion). This season, the Bears haven't done a good job of drawing up plays to get the ball out of Trubisky's hand quickly. Now some of that comes down to adjustments teams have made to Trubisky (which is why the Bears are seemingly seeing more press coverage this season). But at the same time, the Bears have refused to attack consistently down the field to soften up defenses. Part of that has to do with the protection not holding up, but as I just highlighted above, it is possible to attack down the field while still getting the ball out quickly. With that I want to pause for a second for a public service announcement:

RUN A DOUBLE MOVE SOMETIME CHICAGO!!!

-cough-.... Ahem. Ok I'm back

Take a look at this disparity:

Double moves in the playoff game: 3 completions for 101 yards (33% of Trubisky's yards in that game) and a TD. A. Robinson was straight cooking the Eagles secondary in this game on double moves.
Double moves in the last two games: Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Negatory. Nothing. Nil.

Ok, ok, I'll stop. But you can clearly see my point. The Bears refusal to attack down the field in any form (especially on double moves) has allowed teams to play more underneath and take away the quick passing game.

This leads me to one final thing I want to touch on that I noticed, specifically while I was watching the playoff game film:

Trubisky's confidence

Listen, we all know he's pretty shaken up right now. He's been destroyed by the national (and local) media and a lot of fans are turning on him. And look, I get it. It has been an ugly season and he hasn't progressed the way everyone wanted (or expected) him to. I'm plenty frustrated at him as well.

But then I watched that playoff film again, and man, he's a different dude in that game. You can just see it in his demeanor in the pocket. He's catching the snap from center, finding his read, and then slinging it. He's making hard pump fakes on double moves that are just freezing defenders. He's making decisive decisions to pull the ball and scramble when necessary. He just looks different in that film. So how do we get that confident kid back?

Well the Bears have to play to Trubisky's strengths (get him and the pocket moving, designed QB runs, double moves [he's actually pretty good at these], and getting the ball out quickly), which they have failed to do all season. And this isn't just because him and the offense will have more success doing those certain things, it's also because when he can do those things well, it builds confidence. And confidence breeds confidence. Then you can get into the more complicated things that Matt Nagy has been trying to run all season that haven't been working. This is how the Bears break out of their slump and get the offense rolling once more:

Let Trubisky be Trubisky