Friday, July 10, 2020

What if the 2020 MLB Season Went Off Without a Hitch? Would The Cubs Have Won It All? The Answer May Surprise You... (A MLB The Show 20 Simulation)

Cubs opening day of the 2020 MLB season is less than two weeks away!

It's weird saying that, because for the longest time none of us thought it was going to happen. Between COVID-19 concerns and an ugly labor dispute between the players and the owners, MLB fans were brought to their knees just begging for the opportunity to have a season. Fortunately, a 60 game season was eventually implemented, and we the fans are finally able to be treated to some summer baseball at last.

But what if COVID-19 never existed? What if the coronavirus was never able to reach global pandemic levels and the 2020 MLB season went ahead as originally scheduled? How would the season have turned out for the Chicago Cubs and the rest of the league?

Well thanks to MLB The Show 20, I was able to give the original 2020 MLB season an authentic simulation to see just how well the Cubs would (could?) have done in a coronavirus-less world.

Let's see how it all panned out:

Regular Season
  • 103-59 (won the division by 17 games over the Reds)(Top NL seed by 6 games over the Dodgers)(Top record in the MLB by 1 game over the Astros)
  • .259/.341/.446 team batting slash line (9th/7th/6th in MLB)
  • Offense was 5th in runs scored, 3rd in HR, 28th in K
  • 3.34 Team ERA, 20 team shutouts (T-2nd), 28 blown saves (T-24th)
If you listened to any of the buzz around the Cubs this off-season, you would have thought the team was in for a disaster of an upcoming season. However, it is easy to forget just how talented the Cubs roster actually is.

Nonetheless, I don't think anyone could have predicted a season quite like this one. The Cubs dominated the early months of the season, jumping out to huge leads in both the division and the NL by the end of May. Injuries plagued the team again at different points of the year, but for the most part, the team prevailed in the regular season as a whole unit under first year manager David Ross. Below, we'll go into more detail on how individual players performed.

Starting Lineup
 Name PA Slash Line
 Additional
Kris Bryant
668
.294/.389/.561
36HR 107R 88RBI
Willson Contreras
584
.284/.362/.466
24HR
Anthony Rizzo
662
.285/.379/.530
37HR 97R 100RBI
Javier Baez
631
.231/.279/.429
26HR 16SB 91RBI
Kyle Schwarber
604
.226/.320/.426
26HR
Ian Happ
540
.271/.354/.490
23HR 11SB 84RBI
Jason Heyward
477
.296/.394/.470
15HR
Jason Kipnis
264
.311/.403/.474
8HR

First things first: Kris Bryant killed it in the lead-off spot. For the second straight season, KB got off to a scorching hot start in the months of April and May (his AVG was over .400 and his SLG over 1.000 deep into May) and was firmly in the MVP conversation. The Cubs captain, Anthony Rizzo, refused to be overshadowed, putting together a monster campaign of his own. Rizzo was even leading in the MVP race as late as July (he finished 5th in voting, Bryant was 4th). Bryzzo combined to be top performers in the NL in HR (Bryant: T-6th, Rizzo: 8th), Runs scored (1st and 2nd), SLG (5th and 9th), OPS (4th and 8th), and batting WAR (5th and 9th), while Bryant finished 6th in OBP and Rizzo T-5th in RBIs. However, Rizzo was out-shined at the 1B position by division rival Paul Goldshmidt, who finished 2nd in NL MVP voting, and was unable to capture a Silver Slugger. Along with Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras captured a Silver Slugger at his respective position. Willy slotted into the number 2 hole all season, a prime slot between two MVP candidates which allowed him to have another excellent offensive season. Unfortunately, both Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber came crashing down after impressive 2019 campaigns due to poor strikeout rates (28.8% and 27.6% respectively) and abnormally low BABIPs (.288 and .277). However, the bottom of the order was far from sunk as Ian Happ broke out in a big way. Happ initially opened the 2020 season in a platoon with Albert Almora, but took over a full time role when Almora went down with a shin injury. Happ continued his dominance of right-handed pitching while making immense strides against lefties, eventually solidifying a full-time role after Almora returned. Jason Heyward had his best offensive season in a Cubs uniform working predominantly against right-handed pitching. Jason Kipnis didn’t open the season as an every day player, however, due to the struggles of Nico Hoerner (detailed below), Kipnis seized a regular role hammering righties and solidifying the bottom part of the order. 

Bench
 Name PA Slash Line
 Additional
Albert Almora
191
.248/.346/.424
6HR
Steven Souza
276
.292/.375/.531
15HR
David Bote
359
.252/.355/.391
9HR
Brock Holt
403
.289/.378/.438
12HR 8SB
Victor Caratini
306
.281/.337/.438
10HR
Nico Hoerner
306
.236/.292/.325
3HR
Hernan Perez
75
.278/.307/.458
3HR
Trent Giambrone
7
.000/.000/.000

 Ian Miller
 19 .263/.263/.474 1HR 1SB
 Robel Garcia
 4.000/.000/.000
 

As mentioned above, Albert Almora started the season in a platoon with Ian Happ. Prior to his injury, Almora was having a solid offensive season, but his season went downhill after his shin injury. Steven Souza dominated left handers throughout the season in a platoon with Heyward, even putting together some decent performances against right handers from time to time. David Bote suffered from a disappointing power outage and struggled mightily against left handers, but still performed admirably in a utility role. In order to fill the need for a left-handed bench bat, Theo and Co orchestrated a trade at the deadline with the Milwaukee Brewers to acquire Brock Holt in return for Michael Rucker and Aramis Ademan. Holt, who was hitting over .330 for the Brewers at the time, unfortunately didn’t live up to expectations post-trade as his average tumbled below .300 in his brief tenure with the Cubs. Victor Caratini continued to be an asset off the bench, taking on a role spelling both Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras at their respective positions. Nico Hoerner opened the season as the starting 2B, however, a quick start was nullified as pitchers started to figure him out, eventually landing him back in AAA (where he rebounded with a .305/.344/.463 slash line).

Starting Rotation
 NameIP
ERA/FIP/WHIP
 Additional
Kyle Hendricks
183.1
2.21/3.53/1.05
30GS 1.72BB/9
Yu Darvish
168.1
3.74/3.89/1.35
31GS 10.37K/9
Jon Lester
177.0
4.07/3.98/1.29
31GS
Jose Quintana
169.0
2.93/3.20/1.14
31GS
Tyler Chatwood
100.1
2.78/3.61/1.22
21GS
Alec Mills
115.7
2.88/2.89/1.03
46APP 12GS

The Professor (Kyle Hendricks) dazzled in yet another season. Despite low strikeout numbers (6.92 K/9), Hendricks led the league in BB/9 and finished second and third in ERA and WHIP respectively. Yu Darvish had an up and down season, at times being absolutely dominant (he racked up 14+K in multiple starts), but also being susceptible to the long ball (1.23 HR/9) and walks (4.17 BB/9) from time to time. Jon Lester ended his 14-year career in typical Jon Lester fashion, putting up gritty performances throughout the season, even coming up clutch in some big moments. Jose Quintana finally proved his worth in a Cubs uniform, tossing arguably one of the best seasons in his career. The front office will have a big decision to make regarding his free agency this off-season. If not for an unfortunate pectoral injury which cost him the final two months of the season, Tyler Chatwood could have completed a gem of a campaign. Working in the rotation right from the beginning of the season, Chatwood racked up strikeouts at a career high rate (8.97 K/9) and flourished in the number 5 starter role. Alec Mills continued to show out in a swingman role, filling in in the rotation as injuries forced multiple starters to miss games. He eventually took a stronghold on Tyler Chatwood's slot until Mills went down with his own rotator cuff injury in mid-September (he would miss all of the playoffs).

Bullpen
 NameIP
ERA/FIP/WHIP
 Additional
Adbert Alzolay
77.2
4.40/4.09/1.39
47APP 5GS
Brad Wieck
68.0
4.37/4.01/1.35
63APP 1.46HR/9
Michael Wacha
79.0
2.05/3.19/1.08
43APP 6.42H/9
Rowan Wick
56.0
4.18/5.52/1.34
60APP 1.93HR/9
Kyle Ryan
48.1
2.98/3.37/1.49
44APP
Sean Doolittle
65.1
4.13/4.65/1.70
71APP 20HLD
Jeremy Jeffress
65.1
2.48/3.93/1.24
65APP 35HLD
Craig Kimbrel
60.2
4.01/3.40/1.35
64APP 44/50SV
Duane Underwood
15.1
0.00/2.48/0.78
9APP 2.91H/9
 Dan Winkler
 1.1 0.00/2.25/0.752APP
James Norwood
13.1
5.40/3.53/1.28
12APP
 Justin Steele
 9.0 2.00/1.78/1.33 4APP
 Colin Rea
 6.0 1.50/2.33/1.17 4APP
 Dillon Maples
 26.1 4.44/6.57/1.78 32APP 2.73HR/9
 Ryan Tepera
 19.0 6.16/6.26/1.42 17APP 2.84HR/9
 Danny Hultzen
 13.2 5.93/4.54/2.41 15APP 15.76H/9

Adbert Alzolay started the season at AAA, but an early season injury to Dan Winkler earned him a call-up to the big league 'pen. Alzolay was able to stay the whole season in Chicago, finding good amounts of success both out of the 'pen and as a spot starter until he tired out late in September. Brad Wieck continued to show flashes of potential while also having some struggles keeping the ball inside the park. Following disappointing struggles from Ryan Tepera (DFA) and Dillon Maples (Traded to SF), Michael Wacha was acquired from the New York Mets in exchange for Josh Phegley (who was off to a torrid start in AAA Iowa). Wacha quickly became a major asset in the Cubs 'pen and proved his worth throughout the course of the season. Shoulder injuries doomed Rowan Wick's 2020 season as he could just never seem to get on track following a promising 2019 season. He'll look to get back on track in 2021. Kyle Ryan continued to impress against not only lefties, but also against righties in the first season of the 3 batter rule. However, he was unable to stay healthy as he missed two months of the season with shoulder issues. Sean Doolittle was acquired from the Nationals (for Tyson Miller and Alfonso Rivas) to not only shore up the back end of the bullpen, but also to give another left-handed threat. However, he had trouble throwing strikes in both Washington and in Chicago, leading to some issues. Jeremy Jeffress was everything the Cubs could have asked for when they signed him to a "prove it" deal in the off-season. He initially started out as a middle reliever, but due to the struggles of Rowan Wick, he slid into a set up role and was extremely consistent. Craig Kimbrel had one of the more peculiar seasons you'll see. He got shelled early on, but by the all-star break he had a sterling sub-three ERA and made an all-star appearance. However, Kimbrel's second half was littered with walks and blow up performances, ballooning his ERA all the way near 5 before again dropping it back to 4 before the end of the season came. All that being said, Kimbrel still finished T-4th in the NL in saves. Duane Underwood found himself back in the majors near the tail end of the season due to some injuries to Rowan Wick and Alec Mills, putting up impressive, pristine numbers. Following the DFA of Danny Hultzen, Justin Steele was able to breakthrough into the majors for his first cup of coffee, where he seriously impressed as well.

Down on the Farm

The Chicago Cubs farm system was able to put together some impressive performances as complete units. The Iowa Cubs made the AAA National Championship where they unfortunately lost to the Pawtucket Red Sox. The Tennessee Smokies won their first half division, earning themselves a playoff trip despite struggles in the second half. They found a way to go on and win the Southern League Championship.

Chase Strumpf was the minor league hitter of the year as he showed great improvement in his power. Brennen Davis showed why he was arguably the Cubs top prospect as excitement continues to grow as he progresses. Cole Roederer had his share of struggles at the plate, however, he made vast improvements against left-handed pitchers and swiped an astounding 30 bases. Christopher Morel continued to rise up prospect boards by showing off with both the stick and the glove. Miguel Amaya had serious issues in his first taste of AA with an AVG near .215 all season. However, he was red hot the final two months of the season as he was able to raise his AVG all the way .250 by season's end.

Jharel Cotton and Colin Rea both proved to be successful revitalization projects, thus putting themselves in prime position for the 5th rotation spot next season. Justin Steele (minor league pitcher of the year) finally had the breakout we've all been waiting for as he moved from a full-time starter to a swingman role. Oscar De La Cruz had an insane first half starting in AA, eventually landing him in AAA. Halfway through the season, Dakota Mekkes looked headed for the scrap pile with an ERA near 5. However, an insane final 2 months of the season plummeted his ERA to just north of 3. Brailyn Marquez was able to get his first taste of AA, and while he had his struggles, he definitely showed he belonged at times. Ryan Jensen had some second half struggles, but a blistering first half proved he has the "stuff" to make it as a starter. Michael McAvene showed elite potential as a "do-it-all" reliever and is on the fast track to the major leagues. Kohl Franklin  was pushed hard and fast, but showed no fear and all the makings of a possible front line starter. Manuel Rodriguez showed why he was coveted so much by the Cubs front office that they felt the need to give him a 40-man roster spot.

Playoffs

The Cubs entered the postseason as the top seed in the NL. They got to face the Wild Card Game winning-Reds in the divisional round, where they disposed of them in a mere three games thanks to heavy lifting by Kyle Schwarber at the dish and a trio of dominant starts by Hendricks/Darvish/Quintana.

The NLCS brought on another face-off with the Los Angeles Dodgers (97-65, beat the Phillies in 5 in the NLDS), the same team the Cubs had faced back in both 2016 and 2017. Below is a game by game summary:

Game 1: Anthony Rizzo gave the Cubs an early 3-run lead with a first inning HR off of Clayton Kershaw. The Cubs then add on 3 more runs on 5 hits in the third inning, chasing Kershaw after only 2.1 IP. Kyle Hendricks tossed 5+ scoreless innings (4H 4K 2BB) while the combination of Doolittle/Chatwood/Alzolay completed a 7-0 shutout.

Game 2: NL MVP Cody Bellinger broke a scoreless tie in the 4th inning by homering off of Yu Darvish (6IP 5H 8K 3BB 1ER). The Dodgers added 1 run in both the 7th and 8th innings. Julio Urias (7IP 11K 4BB) combined with Ross Stripling and Kenley Jansen to complete a no-hit shutout and a 3-0 victory.

Game 3: The Cubs scored 2 in the first, but the Dodgers were able to get one back in the bottom half. Justin Turner piled on with a 2-run HR off of Jose Quintana (5IP 4H 5K 1BB 3ER) in the 2nd. David Price (5.1IP 7H 4K 2BB 2ER) and the Dodgers 'pen shut the Cubs down from there to secure a 3-2 victory.

Game 4: Anthony Rizzo blasted a 2-run HR off of Walker Buehler in the 1st inning. Ian Happ added an RBI single three batters later as the Cubs jumped out to a 3-0 lead. But in the bottom half, Justin Turner smacked a lead-off HR off Jon Lester before AJ Pollock doubled home two runners later in the first. The Dodgers would add another run on an error in that inning. Willson Contreras equalized the game in the 2nd with a HR. However, Jon Lester was unable to make it out of the 3rd inning (2+IP 6H 3K 1BB). The Dodgers broke the tie in the 6th on a solo HR by Pollock, who then extended that lead with a 3-run HR off Wieck in the 8th. Anthony Rizzo tried to play hero with a 3-run HR off of Blake Treinen in the 9th, but following a Javy double, Kyle Schwarber was struck out by Ross Stripling to end an 8-7 loss.

Game 5: Kris Bryant opened the game with a solo blast off of Kershaw. Justin Turner answered in the bottom half with his own lead-off HR off Hendricks. Mookie Betts added another solo two batters later, while Joc Pederson added one in the 4th. David Bote doubled home Kyle Schwarber in the 7th, but a Max Muncy solo blast off of Doolittle in the 8th put the Cubs on the brink of elimination. Ian Happ wasn't ready to go home yet though as he blasted a game tying 2-run HR off of Ross Stripling (filling in for an injured Kenley Jansen) in the 9th. Javier Baez connected on a 2-run blast in the 10th, followed up by a solo shot by Schwarber 2 batters later. Craig Kimbrel went 2IP for the 7-4 win.

The win did not come without a cost though as Anthony Rizzo was forced to leave the game in extras due to a hip injury. He would be forced to miss game 6.

Game 6: Mookie Betts broke a scoreless tie in the 3rd inning with a 2-run HR off of Darvish. Kike Hernandez added another 2-run blast in the 4th. The Cubs tried to answer with a Happ RBI double in the 4th and a Heyward solo HR in the 8th, but Justin Turner put the game on ice with a 2-run HR off of Jeremy Jeffress in the 9th. The Cubs tried to threaten in the bottom of the 9th, but Pedro Baez slammed the door as the Dodgers won the game 6-2 and the series 4-2 for a trip to the World Series.

World Series: The Dodgers took on the AL Champion Twins (98-64, beat Boston in 5 in the ALDS and swept Oakland in the ALCS). While the Twins were able to put up a little bit of a fight, the Dodgers still dispatched of them with relative ease, finally capturing that elusive World Series title in 6 games.

League Awards
 AwardNL
AL
 MVP Cody Bellinger (LAD)(.318/.409/.594 35HR 111RBI)
 JD Martinez (BOS)(.323/.423/.566 37HR 125RBI)
 Cy Young
 Walker Buehler (LAD)(18-4 2.84ERA 1.13WHIP 205K)
Carlos Carrasco (CLE)(20-3 2.90ERA 1.13WHIP 206K)
 Batting Title
 Mookie Betts (LAD)(.338)
Anthony Rendon (LAA)(.347)
 Rookie of the Year
 Kwang Hyun Kim (STL)(15.3 2.83ERA 1.20WHIP)
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)(.255/.316/.482 31HR 81RBI)
 Postseason MVP
 Max Muncy (LAD)(.350/.466/.650)
Jorge Polanco (.387/.457/.597)
 World Series MVP
Max Muncy (.462BA 2HR)
 


I sincerely hope you all enjoyed this MLB 20 The Show simulation of the pre-COVID19 2020 MLB season. Let me know below in the comments what you think about the Cubs performance! Were you impressed at their regular season? Disappointed how it all ended? Or just overall annoyed that the Dodgers won something (trust me, I get it haha)?

In the meantime, share with your friends. We could all use a little more baseball in our lives!










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