 |
| Mitch Trubisky is 3-0 in his last three games against the Lions. He owns a 106.3 QB rating and has thrown for 11TDs in five games. The Bears are +2 this Sunday in Detroit |
The 2020 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs drubbing the Houston Texans 34-20. Today we get our first NFL Sunday of the season! Let's dive in to some of my top gambling picks of the day:
Pick of the week: Chicago Bears (+2) @ Detroit Lions
I'm seriously perplexed by this line. On one hand, I understand the struggles of Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense last season. But on the other, Trubisky has led the Bears to three straight victories over the Lions, who have been one of the few teams he has consistently torched in his career. The Bears defense is back at full strength (minus Robert Quinn who is doubtful with an ankle injury) and the Lions will like be without both Halapoulivaati Vaitai (foot) and Kenny Golladay (hamstring). I was already liking the Bears before the injury news, this just seals it.
Other Picks
Give me the Over 42 on the Phi/Was game. Miles Sanders is out for Philly, but this is a matchup that went for 59 and 64 points last season. I'll also take the Over 42 on LAC/Cin game. The Bengals defense was awful last season and the Chargers won't be the same without Derwin James. Both teams should have enough offensive firepower to make it happen. Give me the Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are just a plain bad football team, so I'm not scared away by that line on the road. The last three and five of the last six games between GB/Min have been Under 45. I'll play that history especially since I don't like either of the offenses. Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) should be quite the shootout. The Falcons have won their last three home openers, so I'll take them on the turf.
DFS Picks
QB:
- Stud worth paying up for: Russell Wilson @ ATL ($8400)
This game is going to be a shootout and Wilson will have all of his weapons at his disposal. He's well worth the price this week.
- Cash play: Carson Wentz @ WAS ($7700)
I already liked Wentz before Sanders was ruled out. His floor should be pretty high in a matchup he lit up last year.
- GPP plays: Mitch Trubisky @ DET ($6900), Gardner Minshew v. IND ($6700)
As I mentioned above, Trubisky has owned the Lions in his career (20.3FDP). At his price he'll be a steal and very low owned. The Jags will likely be down early and throwing the ball most of the game, making Minshew another intriguing low cost option.
- Notable Fade: Josh Allen v. NYJ ($7900)
I'm just not buying him as a passer. That matched with one of the lower Over/Under totals on the slate means he's not getting anywhere near my lineups this week.
RB:
- Stud worth paying up for: Christian McCaffrey v. LVR ($10000)
The massive price tag is going to scare a lot of people off, but with plenty of low cost options available on the slate and a juicy matchup, Run CMC will be well worth it this week.
- Cash play: Austin Ekeler @ CIN ($7700)
Without Melvin Gordon last season, Ekeler was a true fantasy stud. Volume, matchup, and affordable cost all make him an excellent play in all formats, especially cash.
- GPP plays: Marlon Mack @ JAC ($6100), Boston Scott @ WAS ($4700)
Boston Scott will likely be the highest owned value player on the slate after the Miles Sanders injury so he is a requisite mention here. Don't sleep on Marlon Mack. The Jags defense is bad and the Colts are fully committed to a run-heavy offense. Jonathan Taylor will get his snaps, but Mack is still the lead dog for now.
- Notable fade: Nick Chubb @ BAL ($7500)
WR:
- Stud worth paying up for: Julio Jones v. SEA ($8200)
The Seahawks are far removed from their Legion of Boom days. This unit has been torched on multiple occasions recently. Julio could be in for a big day and I like his price tag being less than Michael Thomas ($8800)
- Cash play: Keenan Allen @ CIN ($7000)
I may not be a big Tyrod Taylor fan, but the volume should be there for Allen. Combine that with a matchup against a weak defense and that's a strong combination in cash games.
- GPP plays: Bryan Edwards @ CAR ($4500), Terry McLaurin v. PHI ($6500)
It is very rare that you'll find a starting player at the minimum cost in DFS. It's even rarer when that player has massive upside. Save yourself lots of money and buy into Edwards' hype. Lost in that middle cost range, Terry McLaurin could be in for a big day against the Eagles (a team he torched for 21.5 and 21 FDP last season)
- Notable fade: Mike Evans ($7500)
TE:
- Stud worth paying up for: George Kittle v. ARI ($8000)
Deebo Samuel is out. The Cardinals are awful against TEs. Don't overthink this one.
- Cash play: Zach Ertz @ WAS ($6600)
Ertz is one of the steadiest performers in fantasy football thanks to great volume and efficiency. He's beautifully priced and hard to pass up in cash games.
- GPP plays: Hayden Hurst v. SEA ($5200), Will Dissly @ ATL ($4900)
Did I mention this game is going to be a shootout? Yea, give me Hurst finally getting his chance to shine in a high volume offense against a weak secondary. Dissly is a little more risky coming off an achilles injury, but when healthy he's been a great performer and a favorite target of Russell Wilson.
- Notable fade: Rob Gronkowski @ NO ($5500)
DST:
- Cash play: Bills v. Jets ($4700)
They get to play against a walking turnover in Sam Darnold at home in a game that will likely end up 12-10. Yea, I like them
- GPP play: Colts ($3700)
This will likely be a popular low cost pick, but for good reason. The Colts get after the QB well and should be able to create some havoc against a woeful Jaguars team.
- Notable fade: Patriots ($4600)
Best of luck to all your bets and entries!
No comments:
Post a Comment