Week 3 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Kenyan Drake is teetering on the edge of a breakout. This week he gets his chance to explode against a porous Detroit Lions defense. Drake is a meager $6500 on FanDuel and the Cardinals are 5.5 point favorites at home.

Now that's how you bounce back! Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season couldn't have gone any better for me ATS or in DFS. Let's keep it rolling.

Week in review ATS: 5-1 (pick of the week: W)

Season ATS: 6-5-1 (picks of the week: 2-0)

Pick of the Week: Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)

The Detroit Lions are just not a very good football team, especially on defense. And now, they have to run into the buzz saw that is the Arizona Cardinals offense. Kyler Murray has been on fire to start the season and could be at the forefront of the MVP discussion if not for Russell Wilson. Detroit at least gets Kenny Golladay to make his 2020 season debut, but I don't think that moves the needle much. 5.5 points at home is a gift.

Other Picks

Justin Herbert quickly showed why he's a 6th overall pick as he pushed the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink on the road. He gets a much easier matchup with Car @ LAC (-6.5) this week. The start of the 2020 NFL season has not been pretty at all for the Philadelphia Eagles. I think that changes this weekend Cin @ Phi (-4.5). Pardon the homer pick, but I like Chi (+3) @ Atl. The flashes have been there for Mitch Trubisky early this season and the Falcons will be missing half their team due to injury (that's less of a hyperbole than you might think). I didn't buy into the Tom Brady and Tampa Bay hype all off-season, and I'm not impressed with their performances the first two weeks either. Give me TB @ Den (+6) with the Broncos being better than their 0-2 record indicates. And in that same game I'll also take Over 42.5 TB @ Den. Drew Lock may be out for the Broncos, but the Bucs defense is nothing to be scared of and Jeff Driskel was slinging it last week.

DFS Picks

Week in review:

		Name	Cost	FDP	Value
QB	Stud	Dak Prescott	$8,300	39.8	4.8
	Sleeper	Mitchell Trubisky	$7,200	15.2	2.1
		Matthew Stafford	$7,200	17.2	2.4
	Fade	Tom Brady	$7,600	9.7	1.3
RB	Stud	Derrick Henry	$8,300	8.4	1.0
	Sleeper	Aaron Jones*	$7,700	43.6	5.7
		Jonathan Taylor	$5,800	18.0	3.1
	Fade	Melvin Gordon	$6,700	15.4	2.3
WR	Stud	DaVante Adams**	$8,600	5.1	0.6
	Sleeper	Parris Campbell***	$5,300	0.7	0.1
		CeeDee Lamb	$5,200	14.5	2.8
	Fade	Robert Woods****	$6,700	10.3	1.5
TE	Stud	Travis Kelce	$7,800	19.5	2.5
	Sleeper	Tyler Higbee	$5,800	25.9	4.5
		Logan Thomas	$4,700	4.6	1.0
	Fade	Mark Andrews	$7,500	3.4	0.5
DST	Stud	Steelers	$4,600	13.0	2.8
	Sleeper	Bears	$4,000	12.0	3.0
	Fade	Vikings	$4,100	4.0	1.0

*Jones was owned in only a meager 12.24% of entries. A real money winner last Sunday

**A hamstring injury pulled Adams out of a blowout vs. Detroit

***A scary knee injury cost Campbell a majority of his matchup with the Vikings

****Woods was held to only 2 catches for 14 yards. He salvaged his day with a short TD run

Week 3 picks:

		Name	Opp	Cost
QB	Stud	Russell Wilson	Dal	$8,700
	Sleeper	Mitch Trubisky	Atl	$7,500
		Ryan Tannehill	Min	$7,400
	Fade	Justin Herbert	Car	$7,200
RB	Stud	Derrick Henry	Min	$8,200
	Sleeper	Kenyan Drake	Det	$6,500
		Joshua Kelley	Car	$5,900
	Fade	Jerrick McKinnon	NYG	$5,700
WR	Stud	Chris Godwin	Den	$7,900
	Sleeper	Terry McLaurin	Cle	$6,700
		DK Metcalf	Dal	$6,500
	Fade	Calvin Ridley	Chi	$8,000
TE	Stud	None
	Sleeper	Noah Fant	TB	$5,800
		Hayden Hurst	Chi	$5,700
	Fade	None
DST	Stud	Chargers	Car	$5,000
	Sleeper	Buccaneers	Den	$3,800
	Fade	49ers	NYG	$4,600

QB:

MVP! MVP! MVP! Give me Russell Wilson against the leaky Cowboys secondary every single time. I promise I'm not being a homer. Mitch Trubisky just keeps getting these tantalizing early season matchups. Mitch could have another 2018 Tampa Bay game on Sunday. Ryan Tanehill has kept firing away and building on his strong 2019 campaign. The Vikings defense has been one of the worst in all of football these first two weeks. I don't dislike Justin Herbert's talent, but the game script won't be his friend this week. Carolina has been awful against the run so the two lead backs for the Chargers should eat this week (more on that in a second) and that keeps points away from Herbert.

RB:

I keep waiting for the explosive Derrick Henry game to come. I thought it might be last week against Jacksonville, but Tennessee did most of their damage through the air. I think a matchup with a Minnesota defense that just got shredded by Jonathan Taylor is the one. I was on Aaron Jones against the horrid Detroit defense last week, now I'm all over Kenyan Drake. Drake's has touched the ball 40 times in the first two weeks. That kind of usage could spell a huge day in what should be an up and down matchup. Remember how I said Carolina's run defense is awful? I'm all over Joshua Kelley at the price point. Jerrick McKinnon will be one of the most popular value plays this week, but I'm staying away. For one, the Giants DL is actually pretty strong so running the ball doesn't come with ease. But I'm also worried about usage for McKinnon with both Jeff Wilson and JaMychal Hasty around. His upside is capped.

WR: 

Finding a "stud" WR I liked this week was difficult with some of the big names either injured or playing in primetime. I don't love Chris Godwin, but the Broncos pass defense has been leaky so I don't mind the matchup. Terry McLaurin had a big game last week in what was expected to be a tougher matchup. He gets a softer defense this week and remains Dwayne Haskins' top target. I like both of the top WR from Seattle this week, but if I had to choose one I'm going to lean on DK Metcalf. The Cowboys have been torched by outside WRs these first two weeks. Get as much exposure on this game as you can. Calvin Ridley could be in for a VERY tough week. Julio Jones very well miss this game and that would allow the Bears to devote extra attention to Ridley. Even if Jones plays, both top corners for the Bears (Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson) have looked great to start the season. Spend your money elsewhere.

TE: 

The TE slate is pretty thin this week with George Kittle being injured and Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews playing on MNF. Therefore, I have no true "stud" or "fade" picks. In the sleeper department, Noah Fant is off to a strong start and should be able to take advantage of an exploitable Buccaneers secondary. While I don't like Calvin Ridley, I do like Hayden Hurst in that same game. The Bears aren't the best at covering TEs, and if Julio Jones does miss the game that should only increase Hurst's value.

DST:

No Christian McCaffrey? The Panthers are in trouble. The Chargers are well worth their price this week. While I think the game might put up some points, I still like the Buccaneers unit to get to Jeff Driskel and force a turnover or two. They should return some solid value. Avoid the 49ers at all costs. The matchup may look enticing, but the team is completely decimated by injuries. Not worth the money at all.

 

Here are my lineups for the week:

Main Slate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SuperFlex

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best of luck!

Week 2 Film Review: Giants @ Bears (VLOG)

It didn't take long for Robert Quinn to make an impact in a Bears uniform. The prized off-season acquisition registered a sack, FF, TFL, and 2 QB hits in his first game

Some quick highlights before you watch the video:

• From my viewing, Mitch Trubisky actually played very well. The end game stats do not tell the full story of how smooth he played for a majority of this game (see "Mitch Counter" below).
  
• OL play wasn't as strong as it was against Detroit, but nonetheless solid. However, James Daniels and Cody Whitehair seemed to have their struggles with the interior DL of the Giants. Charles Leno continues to softer than pudding.
• Offense was much more efficient on third down, converting in a multitude of ways. A big positive after the struggles last week.
• Seemed like a tale of two halves when watching the defense live on Sunday. Film looked a little better than expected in the second half for the unit, but they seemingly lacked some bite. I don't know if this is an effort/fatigue thing or Pagano was holding them back. This needs to be cleaned up as the schedule gets tougher.
• Nagy wasn't as cautious as I initially thought he was in the second half. That being said, it seemed like the offensive play-calling/execution lacked a certain flow that the unit had in the first half (same as the defense). These are coaching points that are going to need to be adjusted to avoid second half letdowns
• Khalil Mack LOVES having Akiem Hicks and Robert Quinn around
• Something is off with Danny Trevathan. Not just physically, mentally he seems off as well.

Mitch Counter (Gradable plays only)

Double negative: 0

Negative: 8 (4 in first half)

Neutral: 5 (all in first half)

Positive: 10 (4 in first half)

Double positive: 6 (5 in first half)

YouTube link: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLAniDBMngo&feature=youtu.be

Week 2 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

 

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys return home after a disappointing week 1 loss to face an exploitable Falcons defense. Expect a better performance from Dallas (who is only -4) and some fireworks from the offense this weekend (Over/Under 53).

Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season was not my best week either ATS or in DFS. But we get right back up on that horse and we persevere.

Week in review ATS: 1-4-1 (pick of the week: W)

Pick of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ New York Jets

Normally I would be a little hesitant to take West coast teams traveling cross country to play in 1pm est contest, but that is something I am willing to overlook in this match-up. The 49ers lost a tough game to the Cardinals on opening weekend, but I think the Cardinals are an underrated team this season. The Niners offense will be without their two top receiving option (Kittle and Samuel), but they should get Brandon Aiyuk to make his NFL debut. This team should be hungry and they want to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. Playing the woeful Jets should help things plenty

Other Picks

Last week's performance by Green Bay was definitely an eye catcher. I still need to see a little more out of them before I start buying fully in, but I am comfortable taking Det @ GB (-6.5) this weekend. I am also a fan of the Over 50 Det @ GB in that same game. GB's offense was firing on all cylinders last weekend and Detroit's defense is a joke. I think the Lions offense can do enough against the Packers defense to hit the over. Over 47.5 Car @ TB also stands out to me as a solid bet. The Bucs have more than a few weapons on offense and can exploit a weak Panthers D. The Panthers offense looked good in a shootout with Las Vegas last week, so they should be able to put some points up on the underwhelming Bucs defense. The Cowboys need to bounce back after a crushing SNF loss last weekend. A date with the Falcons is the perfect remedy. Give me Atl @ Dal (-4). Finally, I like the SNF game Over 44.5 NE @ Sea. This total seems a little low for me with the fireworks display the Seahawks put on last week, and the Patriots should be able to find some holes in the Seattle defense.

 DFS Picks

Week in review:

		Name	Cost	FDP	Value
QB	Stud	Russell Wilson	$8,400	31.8	3.8
	Sleeper	Mitchell Trubisky	$6,900	24.3	3.5
		Gardner Minshew	$6,700	20.8	3.1
	Fade	Josh Allen	$7,900	28.2	3.6
RB	Stud	Christian McCaffrey	$10,000	27.0	2.7
	Sleeper	Marlon Mack*	$6,100	7.1	1.2
		Boston Scott	$4,700	6.4	1.4
	Fade	Nick Chubb	$7,500	5.1	0.7
WR	Stud	Julio Jones	$8,200	20.2	2.5
	Sleeper	Bryan Edwards	$4,500	1.4	0.3
		Terry McLaurin	$6,500	8.6	1.3
	Fade	Mike Evans**	$7,500	6.7	0.9
TE	Stud	George Kittle***	$8,000	7.3	0.9
	Sleeper	Hayden Hurst	$5,200	5.3	1.0
		Will Dissly	$4,900	1.8	0.4
	Fade	Rob Gronkowski	$5,500	2.1	0.4
DST	Stud	Bills	$4,700	8.0	1.7
	Sleeper	Colts	$3,700	4.0	1.1
	Fade	Patriots	$4,600	11.0	2.4

*Marlon Mack left his game early. Was off to a hot start

**Mike Evans was bailed out by his only catch of the game, a 2-yard TD

***George Kittle left the game in the first half. He returned but scored no points in the 2nd half

 Week 2 picks:

		Name	Opp	Cost
QB	Stud	Dak Prescott	ATL	$8,300
	Sleeper	Mitchell Trubisky	NYG	$7,200
		Matthew Stafford	GB	$7,200
	Fade	Tom Brady	CAR	$7,600
RB	Stud	Derrick Henry	JAX	$8,300
	Sleeper	Aaron Jones	DET	$7,700
		Jonathan Taylor	MIN	$5,800
	Fade	Melvin Gordon	PIT	$6,700
WR	Stud	DaVante Adams	DET	$8,600
	Sleeper	Parris Campbell	MIN	$5,300
		CeeDee Lamb	ATL	$5,200
	Fade	Robert Woods	PHI	$6,700
TE	Stud	Travis Kelce	LAC	$7,800
	Sleeper	Tyler Higbee	PHI	$5,800
		Logan Thomas	ARI	$4,700
	Fade	Mark Andrews	HOU	$7,500
DST	Stud	Steelers	DEN	$4,600
	Sleeper	Bears	NYG	$4,000
	Fade	Vikings	IND	$4,100

QB:

After watching Russell Wilson tear them apart last weekend, I'm all in on Dak Prescott to do it to the Falcons again this weekend with all those weapons at his disposal. I'm going back to the Mitchell Trubisky well yet again. At $7200 he offers some really nice cost savings against a Giants secondary that just got exploited by Ben Roethlisberger at home. Matthew Stafford should also have some strong upside, especially if the Lions are going to have to keep up with the Packers offense. I'm fading Tom Brady this week for multiple reasons. For one, both of his top targets are having injury trouble (Mike Evans is still dealing with the hamstring injury and Chris Godwin is in concussion protocol). But I also think that the Bucs will rely heavily on their running game to beat the Panthers (much like the Raiders did last week)

RB:

Derrick Henry was not efficient Monday night against the Broncos, but still saw 31(!) carries to the tune of 14.6 FDP. The Jaguars offer a much weaker run D than the Broncos so the upside is real with Henry. I know it may seem weird to call a $7700 price tag a "sleeper", but Aaron Jones should have elite upside against a Detroit team that just got gashed on the ground by the Bears last week and he's kinda hiding beneath other elite backs in price (Elliott, Henry, CEH). It's Jonathan Taylor time already in Indy. Minnesota's defense is in shambles right now and Taylor should get a lot of volume this week. Melvin Gordon may look tempting with Philip Lindsay likely out, but the Steelers defense just completely bottled up Saquon Barkley on Monday night. Too much bust potential for me.

WR: 

Detroit's defense got exposed by Mitch Trubisky in the 4th quarter last week. Aaron Rodgers and DaVante Adams are a better duo than anyone the Bears can throw out there. Philip Rivers was looking Parris Campbell's way often against the Jaguars and he performed well out of the slot. The Vikings were shredded last week from the slot position. With Blake Jarwin being lost for the season and the Atlanta Falcons defense in town, first round rookie CeeDee Lamb could have a breakout game Sunday. Robert Woods had a good performance on SNF, but he faces a matchup against Darius Slay this week that will likely limit his upside.

TE: 

Derwin James is out for the season, so Travis Kelce should be a strong target in this matchup. The Eagles did a decent job against the Football Team WRs last week, but they let Logan Thomas do some work on them. I like Tyler Higbee to perform in a similar manner this week. Speaking of Logan Thomas, he drew 8 targets last week. He gets to go up against a notoriously bad TE-defending defense in Arizona this week at minuscule cost. Mark Andrews performance from last weekend may look dominating, but it was really buoyed by the two TDs. Lamar Jackson showed a lot more willingness to target his WRs and Houston allowed 4 different targets to catch 3+ passes last Thursday against the Chiefs. I think the Ravens spread the ball around again, and that limits Andrews' upside

DST:

The Steelers were all over Daniel Jones and the Giants offense Monday night. The Broncos were uninspiring at home against a lesser defense in Tennessee. Good matchup for the Steelers. The Bears underwhelmed against the Lions offense, but it looks like they should get Robert Quinn back this week to help that pass rush. Daniel Jones likes to turn the ball over as well. This is not the same Vikings defense. They were absolutely shredded by the Packers last week, and while the Colts are a better matchup, I'm not quite buying them this week.

 

Here are my lineups for the week:

Main Slate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SuperFlex

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Best of luck!

Week 1 Film Review: Bears @ Lions (VLOG)

Rookie Jaylon Johnson seals the Chicago Bears week 1 victor over the Lions

 

 Just some brief highlights before you watch the video:

• Everyone on the offensive line not named Charles Leno looked very strong
• Saw a lot of offensive plays that were a mere single aspect away from breaking big (missed penalty not being called when it should have, one missed block, an off-target throw, etc.). This kept the offense from putting up big numbers in the points department until late. Could have been up big at halftime.
  
• Montgomery, Cohen, and Patterson all looked fantastic running the football, especially Monty (was exceptional and gaining extra yardage after contact)
• Really loved the scheme Nagy had throughout the game. Established the run early and built off of that. Didn't go away from it in the second half despite being down big (was crucial to keeping the Lions honest defensively) 
• I think people may have underrated Mitch's play in the first three quarters and slightly overrated his play in the 4th quarter (see below)
  
• Mitch Trubisky tracker (tracks horrible, bad, neutral, good, and outstanding plays):
• Double negative plays: 5 (3 in the first three quarters)
• Negative plays: 7 (all in the first three quarters)
• Neutral plays: 9 (7 in the first three quarters)
• Check plays: 10 (7 in the first three quarters)
• Check-plus plays: 6 (3 in the first three quarters)

 

YouTube link:

https://youtu.be/l_1v17HBRC8

Week 1 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Mitch Trubisky is 3-0 in his last three games against the Lions. He owns a 106.3 QB rating and has thrown for 11TDs in five games. The Bears are +2 this Sunday in Detroit

The 2020 NFL season kicked off Thursday night with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs drubbing the Houston Texans 34-20. Today we get our first NFL Sunday of the season! Let's dive in to some of my top gambling picks of the day:

Pick of the week: Chicago Bears (+2) @ Detroit Lions

I'm seriously perplexed by this line. On one hand, I understand the struggles of Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense last season. But on the other, Trubisky has led the Bears to three straight victories over the Lions, who have been one of the few teams he has consistently torched in his career. The Bears defense is back at full strength (minus Robert Quinn who is doubtful with an ankle injury) and the Lions will like be without both Halapoulivaati Vaitai (foot) and Kenny Golladay (hamstring). I was already liking the Bears before the injury news, this just seals it.

Other Picks

Give me the Over 42 on the Phi/Was game. Miles Sanders is out for Philly, but this is a matchup that went for 59 and 64 points last season. I'll also take the Over 42 on LAC/Cin game. The Bengals defense was awful last season and the Chargers won't be the same without Derwin James. Both teams should have enough offensive firepower to make it happen. Give me the Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are just a plain bad football team, so I'm not scared away by that line on the road. The last three and five of the last six games between GB/Min have been Under 45. I'll play that history especially since I don't like either of the offenses. Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) should be quite the shootout. The Falcons have won their last three home openers, so I'll take them on the turf.

DFS Picks

QB:

• Stud worth paying up for: Russell Wilson @ ATL ($8400)

This game is going to be a shootout and Wilson will have all of his weapons at his disposal. He's well worth the price this week.

• Cash play: Carson Wentz @ WAS ($7700)

I already liked Wentz before Sanders was ruled out. His floor should be pretty high in a matchup he lit up last year.

• GPP plays: Mitch Trubisky @ DET ($6900), Gardner Minshew v. IND ($6700)

As I mentioned above, Trubisky has owned the Lions in his career (20.3FDP). At his price he'll be a steal and very low owned. The Jags will likely be down early and throwing the ball most of the game, making Minshew another intriguing low cost option.

• Notable Fade: Josh Allen v. NYJ ($7900)

I'm just not buying him as a passer. That matched with one of the lower Over/Under totals on the slate means he's not getting anywhere near my lineups this week.

RB:

• Stud worth paying up for: Christian McCaffrey v. LVR ($10000)

The massive price tag is going to scare a lot of people off, but with plenty of low cost options available on the slate and a juicy matchup, Run CMC will be well worth it this week.

• Cash play: Austin Ekeler @ CIN ($7700)

Without Melvin Gordon last season, Ekeler was a true fantasy stud. Volume, matchup, and affordable cost all make him an excellent play in all formats, especially cash.

• GPP plays: Marlon Mack @ JAC ($6100), Boston Scott @ WAS ($4700)

Boston Scott will likely be the highest owned value player on the slate after the Miles Sanders injury so he is a requisite mention here. Don't sleep on Marlon Mack. The Jags defense is bad and the Colts are fully committed to a run-heavy offense. Jonathan Taylor will get his snaps, but Mack is still the lead dog for now.

• Notable fade: Nick Chubb @ BAL ($7500)

The arrival of Kareem Hunt has drastically cut into Chubb's massive upside. His matchup and his cost make him a non-starter for me this week.

WR:

• Stud worth paying up for: Julio Jones v. SEA ($8200)

The Seahawks are far removed from their Legion of Boom days. This unit has been torched on multiple occasions recently. Julio could be in for a big day and I like his price tag being less than Michael Thomas ($8800)

• Cash play: Keenan Allen @ CIN ($7000)

I may not be a big Tyrod Taylor fan, but the volume should be there for Allen. Combine that with a matchup against a weak defense and that's a strong combination in cash games.

• GPP plays: Bryan Edwards @ CAR ($4500), Terry McLaurin v. PHI ($6500)

It is very rare that you'll find a starting player at the minimum cost in DFS. It's even rarer when that player has massive upside. Save yourself lots of money and buy into Edwards' hype. Lost in that middle cost range, Terry McLaurin could be in for a big day against the Eagles (a team he torched for 21.5 and 21 FDP last season)

• Notable fade: Mike Evans ($7500)

It looks as though he will play despite a nagging hamstring injury, but I'm not touching him. Soft tissue injuries are always tough to come back from, and a matchup with Marcus Lattimore isn't going to help matters.

TE:

• Stud worth paying up for: George Kittle v. ARI ($8000)

Deebo Samuel is out. The Cardinals are awful against TEs. Don't overthink this one.

• Cash play: Zach Ertz @ WAS ($6600)

Ertz is one of the steadiest performers in fantasy football thanks to great volume and efficiency. He's beautifully priced and hard to pass up in cash games.

• GPP plays: Hayden Hurst v. SEA ($5200), Will Dissly @ ATL ($4900)

Did I mention this game is going to be a shootout? Yea, give me Hurst finally getting his chance to shine in a high volume offense against a weak secondary. Dissly is a little more risky coming off an achilles injury, but when healthy he's been a great performer and a favorite target of Russell Wilson.

• Notable fade: Rob Gronkowski @ NO ($5500)

Just don't do it.

DST: 

• Cash play: Bills v. Jets ($4700)

They get to play against a walking turnover in Sam Darnold at home in a game that will likely end up 12-10. Yea, I like them

• GPP play: Colts ($3700)

This will likely be a popular low cost pick, but for good reason. The Colts get after the QB well and should be able to create some havoc against a woeful Jaguars team.

• Notable fade: Patriots ($4600)

Don't be fooled by the matchup. The Dolphins have some playmakers on the offensive side of the ball so they could find themselves putting up some points. The Patriots defense is also missing a few key starters who opted out due to COVID-19. This is a trap pick.

 Here are my lineups for the week:

 

    Cash Play                                GPP Play                                SuperFlex GPP Play

Best of luck to all your bets and entries!