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| Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys return home after a disappointing week 1 loss to face an exploitable Falcons defense. Expect a better performance from Dallas (who is only -4) and some fireworks from the offense this weekend (Over/Under 53). |
Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season was not my best week either ATS or in DFS. But we get right back up on that horse and we persevere.
Week in review ATS: 1-4-1 (pick of the week: W)
Pick of the Week: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ New York Jets
Normally I would be a little hesitant to take West coast teams traveling cross country to play in 1pm est contest, but that is something I am willing to overlook in this match-up. The 49ers lost a tough game to the Cardinals on opening weekend, but I think the Cardinals are an underrated team this season. The Niners offense will be without their two top receiving option (Kittle and Samuel), but they should get Brandon Aiyuk to make his NFL debut. This team should be hungry and they want to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. Playing the woeful Jets should help things plenty
Other Picks
Last week's performance by Green Bay was definitely an eye catcher. I still need to see a little more out of them before I start buying fully in, but I am comfortable taking Det @ GB (-6.5) this weekend. I am also a fan of the Over 50 Det @ GB in that same game. GB's offense was firing on all cylinders last weekend and Detroit's defense is a joke. I think the Lions offense can do enough against the Packers defense to hit the over. Over 47.5 Car @ TB also stands out to me as a solid bet. The Bucs have more than a few weapons on offense and can exploit a weak Panthers D. The Panthers offense looked good in a shootout with Las Vegas last week, so they should be able to put some points up on the underwhelming Bucs defense. The Cowboys need to bounce back after a crushing SNF loss last weekend. A date with the Falcons is the perfect remedy. Give me Atl @ Dal (-4). Finally, I like the SNF game Over 44.5 NE @ Sea. This total seems a little low for me with the fireworks display the Seahawks put on last week, and the Patriots should be able to find some holes in the Seattle defense.
DFS Picks
Week in review:
| Name | Cost | FDP | Value | ||
| QB | Stud | Russell Wilson | $8,400 | 31.8 | 3.8 |
| Sleeper | Mitchell Trubisky | $6,900 | 24.3 | 3.5 | |
| Gardner Minshew | $6,700 | 20.8 | 3.1 | ||
| Fade | Josh Allen | $7,900 | 28.2 | 3.6 | |
| RB | Stud | Christian McCaffrey | $10,000 | 27.0 | 2.7 |
| Sleeper | Marlon Mack* | $6,100 | 7.1 | 1.2 | |
| Boston Scott | $4,700 | 6.4 | 1.4 | ||
| Fade | Nick Chubb | $7,500 | 5.1 | 0.7 | |
| WR | Stud | Julio Jones | $8,200 | 20.2 | 2.5 |
| Sleeper | Bryan Edwards | $4,500 | 1.4 | 0.3 | |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,500 | 8.6 | 1.3 | ||
| Fade | Mike Evans** | $7,500 | 6.7 | 0.9 | |
| TE | Stud | George Kittle*** | $8,000 | 7.3 | 0.9 |
| Sleeper | Hayden Hurst | $5,200 | 5.3 | 1.0 | |
| Will Dissly | $4,900 | 1.8 | 0.4 | ||
| Fade | Rob Gronkowski | $5,500 | 2.1 | 0.4 | |
| DST | Stud | Bills | $4,700 | 8.0 | 1.7 |
| Sleeper | Colts | $3,700 | 4.0 | 1.1 | |
| Fade | Patriots | $4,600 | 11.0 | 2.4 |
*Marlon Mack left his game early. Was off to a hot start
**Mike Evans was bailed out by his only catch of the game, a 2-yard TD
***George Kittle left the game in the first half. He returned but scored no points in the 2nd half
Week 2 picks:
| Name | Opp | Cost | ||
| QB | Stud | Dak Prescott | ATL | $8,300 |
| Sleeper | Mitchell Trubisky | NYG | $7,200 | |
| Matthew Stafford | GB | $7,200 | ||
| Fade | Tom Brady | CAR | $7,600 | |
| RB | Stud | Derrick Henry | JAX | $8,300 |
| Sleeper | Aaron Jones | DET | $7,700 | |
| Jonathan Taylor | MIN | $5,800 | ||
| Fade | Melvin Gordon | PIT | $6,700 | |
| WR | Stud | DaVante Adams | DET | $8,600 |
| Sleeper | Parris Campbell | MIN | $5,300 | |
| CeeDee Lamb | ATL | $5,200 | ||
| Fade | Robert Woods | PHI | $6,700 | |
| TE | Stud | Travis Kelce | LAC | $7,800 |
| Sleeper | Tyler Higbee | PHI | $5,800 | |
| Logan Thomas | ARI | $4,700 | ||
| Fade | Mark Andrews | HOU | $7,500 | |
| DST | Stud | Steelers | DEN | $4,600 |
| Sleeper | Bears | NYG | $4,000 | |
| Fade | Vikings | IND | $4,100 |
QB:
After watching Russell Wilson tear them apart last weekend, I'm all in on Dak Prescott to do it to the Falcons again this weekend with all those weapons at his disposal. I'm going back to the Mitchell Trubisky well yet again. At $7200 he offers some really nice cost savings against a Giants secondary that just got exploited by Ben Roethlisberger at home. Matthew Stafford should also have some strong upside, especially if the Lions are going to have to keep up with the Packers offense. I'm fading Tom Brady this week for multiple reasons. For one, both of his top targets are having injury trouble (Mike Evans is still dealing with the hamstring injury and Chris Godwin is in concussion protocol). But I also think that the Bucs will rely heavily on their running game to beat the Panthers (much like the Raiders did last week)
RB:
Derrick Henry was not efficient Monday night against the Broncos, but still saw 31(!) carries to the tune of 14.6 FDP. The Jaguars offer a much weaker run D than the Broncos so the upside is real with Henry. I know it may seem weird to call a $7700 price tag a "sleeper", but Aaron Jones should have elite upside against a Detroit team that just got gashed on the ground by the Bears last week and he's kinda hiding beneath other elite backs in price (Elliott, Henry, CEH). It's Jonathan Taylor time already in Indy. Minnesota's defense is in shambles right now and Taylor should get a lot of volume this week. Melvin Gordon may look tempting with Philip Lindsay likely out, but the Steelers defense just completely bottled up Saquon Barkley on Monday night. Too much bust potential for me.
WR:
Detroit's defense got exposed by Mitch Trubisky in the 4th quarter last week. Aaron Rodgers and DaVante Adams are a better duo than anyone the Bears can throw out there. Philip Rivers was looking Parris Campbell's way often against the Jaguars and he performed well out of the slot. The Vikings were shredded last week from the slot position. With Blake Jarwin being lost for the season and the Atlanta Falcons defense in town, first round rookie CeeDee Lamb could have a breakout game Sunday. Robert Woods had a good performance on SNF, but he faces a matchup against Darius Slay this week that will likely limit his upside.
TE:
Derwin James is out for the season, so Travis Kelce should be a strong target in this matchup. The Eagles did a decent job against the Football Team WRs last week, but they let Logan Thomas do some work on them. I like Tyler Higbee to perform in a similar manner this week. Speaking of Logan Thomas, he drew 8 targets last week. He gets to go up against a notoriously bad TE-defending defense in Arizona this week at minuscule cost. Mark Andrews performance from last weekend may look dominating, but it was really buoyed by the two TDs. Lamar Jackson showed a lot more willingness to target his WRs and Houston allowed 4 different targets to catch 3+ passes last Thursday against the Chiefs. I think the Ravens spread the ball around again, and that limits Andrews' upside
DST:
The Steelers were all over Daniel Jones and the Giants offense Monday night. The Broncos were uninspiring at home against a lesser defense in Tennessee. Good matchup for the Steelers. The Bears underwhelmed against the Lions offense, but it looks like they should get Robert Quinn back this week to help that pass rush. Daniel Jones likes to turn the ball over as well. This is not the same Vikings defense. They were absolutely shredded by the Packers last week, and while the Colts are a better matchup, I'm not quite buying them this week.
Here are my lineups for the week:
Main Slate
SuperFlex
Best of luck!
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