Chicago Cubs Players Who Flew Under The Radar In 2019

Chicago Cubs baseball is closing in and it is closing in fast! Before the season gets rolling (finally), let's take a look at a list of players who's 2019 seasons flew under the radar. Keep a close eye on these guys in 2020.

Ian Happ

Ian Happ spent 99 games in AAA Iowa in 2019 to work on his swing. The extra focus
paid off to the tune of a 127 wRC+ in 58 games after he was recalled last season.

If you're not already aboard the Ian Happ hype train for 2020, you're running out of time. Following a disappointing 2018 season where he hit a meager .233 while striking out in 36% of his plate appearances, Happ failed to make the Cubs opening day roster in 2019. The Cubs instead opted to send him to AAA Iowa so he could get regular playing time while sharpening his approach at the plate. Early returns were promising, but nothing too special. Then he started to get hot in the summer months, eventually earning himself a call-up to the big league roster in late July. From there, Happ re-asserted himself as a major threat with the bat slashing .264/.333/.564 while cutting his strikeout rate down to 25%. His major improvements at the plate should not be ignored by Cubs fans. Happ is firmly back as one of the better hitters on the Cubs roster.

Victor Caratini/Willson Contreras

Arguably the best catching duo in the MLB, Willson Contreras and
Victor Caratini are a key cog in the Cubs engine.

I contemplated separating these two and discussing their success separately, but I think its crucial to understand how these two work in tandem with one another. First, lets focus on Willy's 2019 season. Following a career low ISO in 2018 (.141), Contreras then set career highs in ISO (.261), HR (24), and wRC+ (127). Contreras was on fire for most of the season until a hamstring injury landed him on the IL in early August. Contreras, like many everyday catchers, can be prone to injuries at times. However, it is very difficult to justify leaving his bat out of the lineup.

Fortunately, that's where Victor Caratini steps in. Unlike most backup catchers, Caratini profiles well both offensively and defensively. His offense took another step last season slashing .266/.348/.447 (all career highs). This type of output from your backup catcher allows more rest to be allocated for Contreras throughout the season. Hopefully David Ross can capitalize on Caratini's improvements across the board and either rest Contreras more frequently or be more free to move him around the diamond (like LF where Contreras has made 34 appearances in his career).

Jason Heyward

Just don't bat him leadoff, and Jason Heyward will make things happen.

Say what you want about Jason Heyward and his contract, but the guy is a hard worker and always gives 100%. Cubs fans have loved to rag on Heyward throughout his Cubs career, but few have recognized the true improvements he's made at the plate since 2016. Early on last season, it looked as though J-Hey had finally put it all together and was turning into the $180M man the Cubs signed. However, his final numbers on the season ended up leaving something to be desired (.251/.343/.429 wRC+ 101). Look at those numbers in just a vacuum, and you might think it was another subpar season from the Cubs highest paid player. Dive a little deeper though, and you'll see something more.

Heyward's wRC+ by month was as follows: 141, 62, 147, 94, 58, 109. So what happened in May (62) and August (58)? Well, Joe Maddon tried to slot J-Hey into the top spot in the order, where he wasn't built to sustain success. Hitting in the leadoff spot, Heyward stumbled to a .147/.252/.302 slash line thanks in large part to an anemic .153 BABIP. However, when hitting lower in the order, Heyward found much more success, slashing .290/.372/.485 (wRC+ 122) when hitting between 5th and 7th in the order. Heyward also lowered his overall soft contact rate to a mere 17.7% while upping his hard contact rate to 35.2%. All signs have J-Hey trending in the right direction, so long as he's deployed properly.

Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant is so good at baseball that his incredible 2019 season wasn't even good enough to
crack the top 3 of his best seasons. News flash: This guy is pretty good.

How can a former top prospect, former NL rookie of the year, and former NL MVP fly under the radar?

Because somehow after all of that, people STILL don't give him enough respect. It is not farfetched to say that in the first couple months of last season, Kris Bryant should definitely have been getting some MVP chatter. In the month of May alone, Bryant slashed a blistering .333/.443/.719 (wRC+ 193) while hitting 10HR. Now he did cool down slightly over the course of the season as his strikeout rate rose, but he still finished with an incredible .282/.382/.521 slash line (wRC+ 135). KB is definitely in the discussion for a top 10 talent in this league, and people need to be treating him as such.

Alec Mills

"Hi, Rob Manfred? Yes, I'd like to report a theft. The Cubs just straight
 up stole Alec Mills from the Kansas City Royals"

Does anyone remember how the Cubs acquired Alec Mills? They traded one of their outfield prospects (Donnie Dewees) to the Royals in what looked like a basic swap to balance out two systems that were top heavy at specific positions. But then the Cubs eventually got Dewees back, and Mills quietly turned into a major asset.

You're forgiven if you didn't quite notice Mills the last two seasons, but he's slowly been establishing himself as a strong bullpen option and swingman for the Cubs. While his numbers at AAA have left something to be desired, Mills has lived up to the task when called upon at the big league level. He's successfully been deployed as a spot starter, long man, and high leverage reliever, culminating is SIERAs of 3.12 and 3.67 in 2018 and 2019 respectively (league average is 3.90). You would be wise to keep a keen eye on Mills this coming season.

Tyler Chatwood

Tyler Chatwood finally started to show last season why he was coveted by
Theo Epstein and the Cubs front office back in 2018.

Theo Epstein haters love to pound him for signing Tyler Chatwood. And sure, there's some good reason for it. Chatwood was signed to a 3yr/$38M contract prior to the 2018 season, where he promptly walked nearly a hitter per inning en route to a 5.30 ERA. Many were quick to judge the move as awful, and they were probably correct at the time. Things didn't get much better in the first half of 2019 as Chatwood was lit up for a 4.40 ERA (4.67 FIP). However, Chatwood flipped a switch in the second half of the season to the tune of a 2.84 ERA (2.55 FIP). He finished the season with a career high K/9 (8.69) and had cut his walk rate roughly in half. He even showed some promise as a starter in a couple of spot starts, rejuvinating some of the hope many of us had in him and possibly turning himself into an asset in 2020 either as a starter or a reliever.

Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish finally blessed Cubs fans in the second half of last
season with all the strikeouts he could get his hands on

I made a post back in early August about how Yu Darvish was having a quietly dominant season. A month and a half later, it wasn't so quiet anymore.

If you looked just at his season numbers, Darvish's season would appear as a good, but not great one. But that doesn't do it justice at all. He struggled out of the gate in April and parts of May, but as the season went on, he settled in more and more. At the end of the first half, Darvish's ERA was sitting north of 5 and there was a lot of people screaming for his head.

They weren't ready for what was about to happen.

In the second half of 2019, Darvish popped off to the tune of a 2.76 ERA (2.83 FIP 2.37 xFIP 2.45 SIERA) and an insane 13.00 K/9 and 0.77 BB/9! Darvish was finally showing Cubs fans what he was all about and why he was worth the money they paid for him. He could have had an even better season if not for an abnormally high HR rate. The odd thing about that though is Darvish's GB rate was near his career high and his hard contact rate was lower than it had been in a few years, suggesting that was more of an aberration than anything.

Whatever amount of pitching we get to see from Darvish in 2020 should be a real treat.

And so ends my list of Chicago Cubs players that flew under the radar in 2019. Keep an eye out for these guys in the abridged 2020 season, they could all be primed for a breakout in one way or another.

The Bears 2020 Draft Class: Improving the team.... But in a Different Way Than They Should Have?

My number one rule of NFL draft week:

Never judge a draft class until it is completed.

It's a good thing my girlfriend dragged me out of our apartment to go for a walk on a glorious spring day, otherwise my twitter fingers may have gone off on Ryan Pace prematurely.

I share my feelings on each individual pick and player below, but one constant though throughout this draft that I kept having was:

"But what about this guy? Why'd you pass on him?"

This was getting me heated on multiple occasions because I thought the Bears were missing out on players who could fill certain needs. Admittedly, that thought process clouded my judgement of the picks in the moment. Time to digest those picks, coupled with seeing how the whole class came together put me in a better place. I still have my concerns (which I'll mention), but I feel more comfortable now.

Here's my pick-by-pick analysis:

Round 2; Pick 11: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame

St. Viator (Arlington Heights, IL) alumnus Cole Kmet. The former two sport Lion and Fighting Irish TE and Pitcher should provide a great boost for a struggling Bears offense

Ok, first things first:

This kid went to the same high school I did (I graduated in '10, him in '17) and we played for the same baseball coach, who I am still very close with to this day. So honestly, I was secretly hoping the Bears would draft him.

That being said, when he was announced, I'll admit I didn't love it at first. It wasn't the player, it wasn't that there wasn't a need or it was bad value (no way was he making it to 50, let alone further than that):

It was Denzel Mims.

Ever since the Senior Bowl, I've had a serious man crush on Mims. That only intensified with an impressive combine that shot him into first round pick territory. I honestly didn't think he would fall to 43, but somehow he did, and I thought the Bears should pounce on this big time playmaker.

However, the Bears went the TE route instead. And of course, in typical Bears twitter and National Sports Media fashion, both were very quick to point out that the Bears now had 10 TEs on the roster.

What both of those entities failed to acknowledge though, is that of the 9 other TEs on the roster, only 2 or 3 are actually worthy of roster consideration. Additionally, this pick coupled with the Jimmy Graham signing puzzled some (like myself), but the more thought that went into it, it's not that shocking.

For one, Nagy's offense is predicated on strong TE play, specifically out of two TE sets (one "Y" in-line TE and one "U" "move" TE). Kmet fits perfect at a "Y" position, while Graham is best suited for the "U".

Kmet is also only 21 years old and split his time between football and baseball (he was the team's closer) at Notre Dame, so he is still a bit raw in some aspects and needs time to develop. Part of this pick is the long term upside. Regardless of the how the team's QB situation pans out this year, whoever is at QB in 2021 and beyond should have a big and talented TE to throw to.

PICK GRADE: B+

Round 2; Pick 18: CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah

Utah CB Jaylon Johnson is game ready. His football instincts and aggressive mindset is a perfect fit alongside all pros Eddie Jackson and Kyle Fuller.

While the Kmet pick didn't necessarily bother me, the Jaylon Johnson pick initially got me HEATED.

I couldn't believe the Bears would pass on Mims TWICE. Not only that, but one of my favorite OTs in the draft (Josh Jones) and safeties (Jeremy Chinn) were both also still available, so it was perplexing to me that the Bears took a player at a position that I didn't see as a high need.

However, Johnson's talent is undeniable. He's arguably a top 20 talent in this draft and is game ready because of his instincts and intelligence. He lack top end speed and his hips can be a little tight, but he bullies WRs and has a nose for the football. The Bears love physical CBs, and Johnson fits that Charles Tillman/Kyle Fuller mold. There are definite concerns over his shoulder injury history, however, the Bears were obviously comfortable with his medicals and could have landed one of the steals of the draft.

PICK GRADE: B+

Round 5; Pick 10: Edge Trevis Gipson, Tulsa

Tulsa's Trevis Gipson has the raw athletic ability and tenacity to be a difference maker at the next level. You can never have too many good pass rushers in the NFL.

So round 5 came around and I'm all ready for the Bears to pick at 18... then I get a call from my father that they've traded up. I start getting skeptical, but I'm thinking "Ok, maybe they're trading up to get an OL or WR they like and don't want to lose."

Then they draft an edge rusher.

Didn't they just sign Robert Quinn? What the hell do we need an edge rusher for? We need developmental OL, playmaking WRs, and a starting S. Not only that, but we traded up for him?

But then the Bears didn't trade up. No, instead they traded a 2021 4th rounder. And then I read up on Gipson:

Kid can play.

Prototypical size, length, and speed combined with good power both on the rush and against the run. His pure talent and athleticism is very impressive, but he's still raw. Scouts say he still needs work on his punch and his counter rush abilities, but hey, I think working with two all-pro edge rushers may help the kid out don't you think?

As for the 4th round pick the Bears traded away, I was reading somewhere that the Bears actually had a 4th round grade on Gipson anyways. Additionally, NFL.com's rating system gave him prospect rating of 6.22, narrowly missing a designation of "Will be a starter within first two seasons".

Pace has a knack for this drafting defenders on the 3rd day thing.

PICK GRADE: A-
 
Round 5; Pick 18: CB Kindle Vildor, Georgia Southern

Far from a perfect pick, Georgia Southern CB Kindle Vildor's coverage skills give him promise to crack the lineup as a slot corner. At the very least, the Bears may have another special teams ace on their hands.

At this point I'm watching the draft, I'm real heated.

ANOTHER corner? How many more are we going to roster? How many more picks are we going to have until we get someone at a position of need?

Yet again in this draft, time started to set me straight. What I thought was just a depth/special teams signing actually looks more and more like a legitimate threat to start at nickel corner very soon. Vildor is a little undersized (5'10" 191), but is a great athlete with good length. He doesn't possess the requisite top speed or physicality to play on the outside, but his coverage skills are solid. Now that the draft has been completed, I've actually started to see some rumors that Buster Skrine may be cut ($4M savings), so I think that speaks to Vildor's abilities.

PICK GRADE: B
 
Round 5; Pick 28: WR Darnell Mooney, Tulane

A touchdown waiting to happen, Tulane's Darnell Mooney is the lightining in a bottle that the Bears lacked at WR in 2019.

The Bears trade up and FINALLY take the WR I've been waiting for.

But wait, that's not Donovan Peoples-Jones (who I also really wanted because of his upside). In fact, I've never came across this kid in my pre-draft research.

Oh, but this kid can FLY (4.38 40 at the combine). The thing I had been asking for all draft is a big time playmaker offensively. Well this kid is it. He can blow the top off the defense (which no other Bears WR can do) and he can take short passes and turn them into TDs (which also, no Bears WR can do). He's touted as a slot WR, but he can also play outside (which is where I think the Bears could really use him).

I liked the potential of DPJ and am a little disappointed the passed on a possible starter at strong safety in Antoine Brooks Jr., however, I like what I see out of Mooney. He's unlikely to be an every down WR because of his thin frame and lack of detailed route running, but his ability to be lighting in a bottle is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Bears anemic offense.

PICK GRADE: B+

Round 7; Pick 12: OT Arlington Hambright, Colorado

Colorado OT Arlington Hambright has a lot of developing left to do, but he has all the right tools in place to make it work.

There's the OL project I was waiting for. This one looks like a deep scouting dive by the Bears. I thought they'd take a shot on Trey Adams (who took a massive tumble after a bad combine) or Terence Steele (an intriguing developmental prospect out of Texas Tech), but I'm assuming something on tape stood out to new OL coach Juan Castillo.

Hambright lacks the length and size to stay at tackle, so he'll likely be moved inside to guard. He moves very well (4.97 40 at his pro day) and has decent body strength, so it seems like there's something for the Bears to play with here. He's got a lot of ironing out and developing to do and will likely end up on the practice squad in year one, but could be someone to keep an eye out for the future.

PICK GRADE: B

Round 7; Pick 13: OG Lachavious Simmons, Tennessee State

Playing at a small school, Tennessee State OG Lachavious Simmons dominated his competition. He needs a lot of seasoning, but with the right coaching, this mauler could have a promising future.

One. Mean. SOB.

At 6'5" 315 with excellent length and versatility, Simmons provides a lot of upside. He possess a lot of power at the point of attack and open holes nicely in the run game. Played at a small school, but took care of his competition with ease, which is a big plus. This looks like another developmental project to let Juan Castillo get his hands on to mold.

I like it.

PICK GRADE: B+

Overall Impressions

Ryan Pace did a good job of managing the few picks he did have, even snagging two additional 5th round pick at what I think are very low costs. Despite not liking most of the picks on the surface initially, I think in the end of things the Bears came out alright. I worry about passing on talented players like Denzel Mims, Jeremy Chinn, and Josh Jones, but it seems like they identified their guys and went out and got them. Adding in Kmet should stabilize the offense immediately alongside Jimmy Graham, and adding Mooney should add an extra bit of "umph" into an offense that ranked near the bottom in "explosive plays" in 2019. Meanwhile, Jaylon Johnson should be the odds on favorite to be the starting CB opposite of Kyle Fuller in 2020 and Trevis Gipson adds some necessary depth/insurance behind Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack.

I wasn't expecting the Bears to land a starting OL in this draft, but I was hoping they'd swing a little harder for a developmental prospect than just two 7th round picks. That being said, the two kids they drafted do intrigue me.

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: B+

My Ideal Bears 2020 Draft Class

First off I want to say that I hope everyone is staying safe during this COVID-19 pandemic. These are definitely interesting and worrying times and all of us are being greatly affected.

Fortunately, in a world devoid of sporting news, we still have the NFL off-season. And man, was the start of free agency a whirlwind. High profile names were heading left and right in blockbuster trades (if someone can explain to me what the Texans were thinking I'd be very appreciative) and free agents started choosing their new homes.

Now that the dust from free agency has settled, I have finally put together my ideal draft class by doing a mock draft on thedraftnetwork.com. Unlike many others, I do not like coming up with mock drafts before free agency has occurred. It's hard enough to be accurate with mock drafts thanks to unexpected trades and selections without adding in the fact that a team's needs can drastically change throughout the off-season.

For the Bears, drafting a QB in the second round was a pretty hot topic all off-season, but I think that should be quashed after trading for Nick Foles. Outside of Germain Ifedi's "prove it" contract, the Bears didn't do much to address their problems up front, making OL a serious need entering the 2020 draft. Additionally, there's still a glaring hole at the starting safety spot opposite of Eddie Jackson. Some other areas I and others would like to see the Bears focus on in this draft is getting more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball (TE/WR) along with some depth/building blocks on the defensive side of the ball (CB/ILB).

With that in mind, here is my ideal Bears 2020 draft class:

Pick 43 (2nd): Austin Jackson, OT Southern California

Without a doubt, offensive line is one of the Bears biggest needs entering this draft. A lot of talk has surrounded filling the hole at the RG position, but I believe that Germain Ifedi should perform nicely inside at that role. That leaves the tackle positions. Charles Leno was just awful last season. Don't let the metrics fool you because tape never lies. He got beat down too many times to count and it affected the whole offense. I still have some hope he can return to form, but he needs a fire lit under his ass, and some competition may just do that. I've also never been a fan of Bobby Massie. Too many times I see him get beat on a pass rush or fail to get movement in the run game. These two are exactly why targeting an OT early should be at the top of the Bears list.

If the Bears can land Jackson at 43, I'll be ecstatic. There are a few scouts around the league that have pegged him as a first round talent. He's been steadily rising up draft boards throughout the pre-draft process, culminating with a strong combine performance. Jackson is athletic and plays with good leverage, giving him the ability to handle speed rushers off the edge. Combined with his excellent size (6'5" 322) and strength (27 bench press reps), Jackson has all  the makings of a franchise left tackle and a second round steal.

Pick 50 (2nd): Jeremy Chinn, S Southern Illinois

While the Bears did a good job of focusing on some of their needs this off-season, they still haven't found anyone to play safety opposite of their all-pro Eddie Jackson. The team did resign Devin Bush, whom Chuck Pagano is very high on, and may still sign a low-cost veteran to compete for the job, but a long term solution is still up in the air. Regardless of who ends up starting week 1 of next season, it needs to be someone who is more of an "in-the-box" safety so that Eddie Jackson can shift back to his ball-hawking role that he is so good at.

Enter Jeremy Chinn. At 6'3" 221, Chinn possess elite size for an "in-the-box" safety and has blazing 4.45 speed. He's an uber aggressive defender who attacks both blockers and ball carriers. He's also excellent at ripping the ball out and creating turnovers. While he still requires work on his coverage skills, he possesses the necessary athleticism to recover. He should make a fine strong safety at the next level, even earning comparisons to Harrison Smith from NFL.com's Lance Zierlein

Pick 163 (5th): Harrison Bryant, TE Florida Atlantic

How many TEs do the Bears have on the roster right now? 10? 15? Whatever it is, it is a lot and it got even bigger with Jimmy Graham being added in free agency.

So why am I drafting another one?

Because Bryant could be a stud.

Remember when the Bears drafted Adam Shaheen over George Kittle? Of course you do. Bears fans will never let Ryan Pace live that one down. Well, Harrison Bryant might just be George Kittle 2.0. He possesses strong athleticism (4.74 speed) and knows how to make plays down the field. The best part about Bryant is his versatility. He has the ability to split out wide and do work against corners, so he fits perfectly in the Bears "move TE" role. Despite being a "receiving TE" first, Bryant holds his own in the blocking department as well, only increasing his value.

Do I expect Harrison Bryant to be an impact player in year one? Probably not. But do I think passing on him could be another George Kittle-sized mistake? I absolutely do.

Pick 196 (6th): Reggie Robinson II, CB Tulsa

We've passed the point in the draft where you're likely to find immediate starters, so at this point I like to find upside. My favorite kind of players to look for late in drafts are the "prototypes". Guys who fit a specific build of height/weight/speed who may lack technical skills or be very raw. Reggie Robinson II fits that mold. He's got outside corner size (6'1" 205) and incredible length to go along with the speed (4.44) to handle outside receiving threats. He was also a big time performer in his time at Tulsa.

His coverage skills are going to need work as his hips are tight and he has trouble mirroring receivers, however, in the 6th round, there's a lot to love about this kid's potential

Pick 200 (6th): Darryl Williams, IOL Mississippi State

In my opinion, the Bears don't have a true center on their current roster. Cody Whitehair has too many issues with his long snapping to be a real solution there and James Daniels has struggled mightily in his time there. So it would be ideal if the Bears were to try and target someone who could possibly start at the center position.

Williams was a captain and a three year starter at Mississippi State. Though he lacks the ideal athleticism to play in the NFL, he's an absolute grinder and he holds his own. Scouts don't love his explosiveness off the line and into defenders and they are worried he could get exposed at the next level, but he had a strong performance at the East/West shrine game, highlighting his ability to play against top talent. Williams may not be a long term option at center, but his mentality and grit make him worth a flier in the late rounds

Pick 226 (7th): Cole McDonald, QB Hawai'i

If the Bears want to take a developmental guy at QB who they can stash on the practice squad for a year, look no further than McDonald. He is a strong athlete (4.58 speed) and possess prototypical NFL QB size at 6'3" 215. He hails out of the pass happy Hawai'i offense, so there's concerns about him just being a "scheme QB". However, he's been praised for his ability to read defenses and move through his progressions.

Scouts are not in love with his throwing motion and he's had a great deal of trouble hitting the deep ball in his career. This has lead to concerns over his ability to make NFL throws. However, his athletic ability and his pocket presence are something to build on and make him an appealing last round pick.

Pick 233 (7th): John Hightower, WR Boise State

I fought the urge to jump at WRs at other points in this draft (specifically in the second round), but there was no chance I was getting out of here without taking at least one. While the Bears WR core isn't too bad, there currently is no one on the roster that is a consistent deep threat. So I went looking for only guys who fit the "deep threat" profile.

That's how I landed on the lean (6'1" 189) WR out of Boise State. He's got speed to burn (4.43) and is a definite big play threat through the air, after the catch, and on the ground as well. In addition to his speed, Hightower cuts well and can lose his defenders easily. That being said, his overall route running still needs refining and he has trouble getting off of the press.

The biggest issue with Hightower is his hands. He catches in the body far too often and he has some difficulty tracking the deep ball and making plays in traffic. While these are concerning, if he can iron out some of these issues, Hightower has the big play ability to be a real difference maker.


And there is my ideal Bears 2020 draft class. If the Bears were to come out of the draft later this April looking a little something like this, I would be ecstatic about the upcoming season. In the meantime, everyone stay safe and practice your social distancing. Together, we'll all get through this.

Who are you? Challenges for key Bears personnel this offseason

Mercifully, the 2019 Bears season has finally come to an end. It wasn't pretty, and in fact at times, it was downright awful. So many things went wrong. So many players (and coaches) regressed. All of the sky high expectations came crashing to the floor.

And here we are. Back at square one.

Where do we go from here? Are sweeping changes needed? Off with the heads of Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy? To the dumpster you go Mitchell Trubisky? There's bound to be opinions aplenty this offseason, and I'm sure to have more than a few myself. But with the end of this disappointing season finally here, I wanted to start this off-season by challenging some of the Bears key personnel in management, coaching, and of course the players themselves, to take a good look in the mirror and the answer the question:

"Who are you?"

And it starts at the top:

• Ryan Pace: Are you that elite executive who finds all-pro talent like Eddie Jackson in the 4th round, and then rips off the Oakland Raiders to acquire a future first ballot HOFer in Khalil Mack? Or are you the lackluster talent evaluator who misses on his key first round picks and free agent signings like Trey Burton? You've dug yourself a hole with your mistakes, and your successes aren't enough to get you out of it. The only thing left to do is dig deeper. Can you find a way to be creative and fill the holes on this roster? Can you nail the few draft picks that you have and make this team a contender again? Most importantly, you've hitched your wagon to Mitchell Trubisky: if you believe in him, can you give him the necessary pieces to help him show everybody else why he's worth it?
• Matt Nagy: Can you swallow your pride? This season was a disaster, and the buck stops with the you. Can you give yourself an honest evaluation of how you performed as a leader this season, and then realize what changes need to be made? And if that requires you to give up playcalling duties (which it should), are you willing to let go for the good of the team?
• Chuck Pagano: Can you let the dogs loose and stop worrying about the consequences? A defense that was predicated on being vicious and aggressive under Vic Fangio took a massive step backwards in their first season under your advisement. Sure, you dealt with injuries and an offense that couldn't move the ball. But many times this season, your defense faltered in situations where they previously would step up. Your personnel looked disinterested and overtly cautious. You kept the dogs chained up. Stuck back in "shell" defenses while only sending 3-4 guys after the QB. You were so afraid to give up a big play that you let people walk all over you at times. You took the hunt out of the dogs. Give it back to them. Let them eat. It's what they're good at.

Now for some of the key players:

• Mitchell Trubisky: Are you who everyone thinks you are? The guy who is forever going to be compared to Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson while they laugh at you and the Bears? Or are you that kid with the killer instinct? We've seen it before. Multiple times in fact. 6 TD passes against the Buccaneers. A complete demolition of the Cowboys on national television. Some people say "Oh, he can't do it against good defenses". Well what about the 400+ yards of total offense against the Patriots in 2018? Or how about the poised leader who got the ball back with only 42 seconds left and one timeout in his first playoff game and dropped a beautiful dime to get his team into GW FG position? Are you that guy? Or are you just full of potential, but alas, a disappointment?
  
• David Montgomery: Can you be THAT guy? When you play RB and you put on a Chicago Bears jersey, you've got some big shoes to fill. Payton, Sayers, Grange.... Legends have carried the rock in this city. Expectations are sky high. You've shown flashes of what it is you can do. Can you take it to the next level?
  
• Tarik Cohen: What kind of stones do you have? Are you the guy that absolutely buried Dante Fowler coming on a blitz on national television last year? Or are you so scared of contact, that you just want to run to the sideline every time? It's the size of the fight in the dog that matters right? Well, where's your fight?
  
• Allen Robinson: Can you be mentioned in the same breath as Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins? Do you have what it takes to get on a whole different kind of level?
  
• Anthony Miller: Are you that no name, walk-on, mid major WR with a massive chip on your shoulder? Or are you just about being flashy? We've all seen the potential you have, but how badly do you really want it?
  
• Cody Whitehair: Are you ready to be a leader? This offensive line lost its leader in Kyle Long and suffered drastically. This unit needs someone to step up. This game all starts up front, and no matter what the skill players say, it's won up front as well. Can you be the guy that the team can lean on for leadership?
  
• Akiem Hicks: Are you just a quiet superstar, or are you ready for the whole league to know your name? Can you take that next step and emphatically announce your presence?
  
• Khalil Mack: Are you that generational talent that doesn't care if there's two, three, four, or five guys blocking you? That guy who throws 330 pound tackles into the laps of QBs with only one arm? The guy who's name strikes fear into his opponent because they know no matter what they gameplan and do, it isn't going to matter?
  
• Leonard Floyd: Are you a feared edge defender, or just some guy? Can you be that player who destroys the Packers, but do it against the other 30 teams? Where is your drive? Where is that next level that we've all been waiting for? We've seen the flashes. Now let us see the real thing.
  
• Roquan Smith: Can you be THAT guy? Just like RB, MLB has a long list of legends out of Chicago. Are you the next one? We've seen you all over the field in one game, and then non-existent in the next. This is going to be your defense next season, and for many years to come. Are you ready to show that your worthy of being a Chicago Bears MLB?
  
• Nick Kwiatkowski/Kevin Pierre-Louis: Are you starting caliber LBs, or just flashes in the pan? Do you have what it takes to play at the level you played at this season over the course of 16 games?
  
• Eddie Jackson/Kyle Fuller: Can you get this secondary back to the level where it strikes fear in opposing QBs? Can you once again be those ball hawks that change the game by jumping a route and taking the ball the other way for six? And most importantly, can you mentor the inevitable newcomers and help them take their games to the next level?
  
• Eddy Pineiro: Can you be relied on? A team that has been in constant kicking flux ever since losing Robbie Gould absolutely needs stability and consistency. Are you the guy who missed 4 of 7 FGs between weeks 8 and 11? Or are you the guy who made his final 11 FGs of the season and drilled a 53 yard GW at the buzzer against the Broncos?

This season was not what any of us wanted. Nonetheless, this team has the potential to do great things. It all depends on how this team responds to adversity and answers these questions.

Week 13 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Last week was just straight up not a pretty weekend for my football-wise. My fantasy and gambling picks did not go well at all. But we get right back up on that horse and give it another go. 

Last week: 2-5 Overall: 13-8-1

• Jets (-3) @ Bengals
  

I really like the brand of football the Jets have been playing of late. Sam Darnold is in a groove and the defense has been improving. Andy Dalton takes the reins back for the Bengals in offense, but I don’t think that matters much. 

• Titans (+1) @ Colts
  

This game has big time playoff implications on both sides. Winner stays in the hunt, loser is likely done. The Titans offense has been humming ever since they switched over to Ryan Tannehill and the Colts offense has struggled without TY Hilton. That’s enough for me. 

• Packers (-6.5) @ Giants (under 45)
  

I’m toeing a precarious line here with this spread and under pick, but I’m going to lean towards the Giants offense continuing to struggle and the Packers to be inconsistent. 

• Browns/Steelers under 39
  

This is going to be a UFC fight, not a football game. I don’t expect to see a whole lot of offense in this game. Just a lot of guys lining up and smacking each other in the mouth. 

• Buccaneers/Jaguars over 47
  

Death. Taxes. And Buccaneers games hitting the over. Listen, the formula is simple: the Bucs offense is high powered and their defense stinks. Sprinkle in some decent firepower from the opposing offense and you’ve got yourself a nice over. 

• Patriots/Texans under 46
  

I seriously considered taking the Texans (+3) here as a bold pick, but I don’t have those kind of stones lol. Instead I’ll stick with the under. The Patriots have been unimpressive on offense of late and I think they can stifle the Houston offense enough to keep the game low scoring. 

• Seahawks (-3) v. Vikings (under 50)
  

These picks are both predicated on “primetime Kirk Cousins” showing up. Until I see him perform admirably in a primetime matchup, I’m gonna pick against him and his team.  

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Patrick Mahomes ($8600), Sam Darnold ($7600), Carson Wentz ($7300)
  

Last time the Chiefs played the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes absolutely torched them on the road. Expect more of the same coming out of a bye and at home. Don’t look now, but Sam Darnold is blossoming right before our eyes. He gets another soft matchup against the Bengals this week. I understand if Carson Wentz’s recent struggles scare you off, but the Dolphins secondary is decimated and he also gets Alshon Jeffery back this week. 

• RB: Aaron Jones ($8000), Le’Veon Bell ($7300), Miles Sanders ($5800)
  

Aaron Jones has been a stud all season when he gets to face weak defenses. The Giants should offer a nice bounce back opportunity. I bet on a Le’Veon breakout last week and it didn’t exactly happen despite modest results. Let’s try this one again against a horrible Bengals run D. Tried betting on Miles Sanders last week as well and the results were just ok. Jordan Howard is our yet again and the Dolphins offer up a golden opportunity for a big game. 

• WR: Cooper Kupp ($7800), DJ Moore ($6800), Dede Westbrook ($5700)
  

The Cardinals have not been very good against slot receivers all season. Despite Jared Goff’s struggles, I like the upside of Kupp this week. DJ Moore has been on an absolute tear of late. His current price feels like highway robbery. Dede Westbrook has had 15 targets over the last two weeks with Nick Foles under center and has a weak Buccaneers secondary across from him this week. 

• TE: Travis Kelce ($7100), Darren Waller ($6100), Tyler Higbee ($5500)
  

Travis Kelce tends to abuse the Oakland Raiders and their secondary. He’s worth the price this week. On the other side of the field, Darren Waller gets a promising matchup to bust out of his recent slump. Normally, I would pass on Tyler Higbee who is stepping in for the Gerald Everett, but the Cardinals are dead last against TEs in fantasy so the upside is too good to pass up. 

• DST: Chargers ($3900), Steelers ($3700)
  

The Broncos aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire offensively this season. Should be plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers for a hungry Chargers defense this week. As I mentioned above, I think the Browns/Steelers is going to be a bloodbath this week. Both defenses should be intriguing picks this week, but the Steelers price tag is tantalizing. 

Week 12 NFL and DFS picks

I had another strong week last week (6-1) to push my picks record to 11-3-1. Let’s keep the momentum going:

• Falcons (-3.5) v. Buccaneers
  

I’m buying the Falcons of late, especially their defense. The Bucs are a team in disarray right now, and I think the Falcons can capitalize. 

• Steelers (-6.5) @ Bengals
  

I have my concerns about trusting the Steelers on the road, but the Bengals can make any team look Super Bowl caliber. I think the additional layoff from Pittsburgh’s last game will be beneficial. 

• Dolphins/Browns under 46.5
  

This over/under just seems to be a little too high to me for two offense that have struggled to find consistency this season. These two defenses have also shown some improvement of late. 

• Saints (-9.5) v. Panthers
  

The magic that Kyle Allen had to begin his career as a starter is now gone. Last week, he was demolished by a Falcons defense that is a few steps down from this Saints D. Also, betting the Saints at home is always a pretty safe bet. 

• Jets (+3.5) v. Raiders
  

Here’s my bold pick of the week. I’ve really liked what I’ve been seeing out of the Jets offense the last couple games. They are starting to look more like what everybody thought they would look like before the season started. That coupled with a west coast team traveling cross country for a 1pm eastern start leads me to think an upset is in the works. I’m taking the Jets straight up, so give me those extra 3.5 points. 

• Lions (-4) @ Redskins (over 40)
  

NFL gambling 101: find the team playing the Redskins, and bet them. Victory is assured. Both defenses in this game are terrible, so the over looks tantalizing as well. 

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Matt Ryan ($7900), Sam Darnold ($7400), Nick Foles ($7200)
  

This is my third straight week picking a QB against the Bucs defense. The last two went pretty well. The Bucs are horrible against the pass. As I mentioned above, the Jets offense has been much improved of late, specifically because of Sam Darnold (24.06 ppg in last two). The Raiders pass D is nothing to be afraid of. Make that two straight appearances for Nick Foles in my picks. Last week was a modest performance (18.84 points) and I think he’ll have a better game this week against a weaker pass D (22nd against the pass). Utilize the savings you get from him to spend elsewhere. 

• RB: Le’Veon Bell ($7200), Joe Mixon ($6700), Miles Sanders ($5600)
  

Can you tell I’m buying the Jets this week? Le’Veon Bell hasn’t had a big, explosive game yet this season, but his last three he’s started to find some consistency (15.7 ppg). At his cost, that consistency and upside should be in your lineups. Despite appearances, there is actually one strong fantasy asset in the Bengals offense. Mixon’s volume (averaging 23 touches per game the last 3) gives him a high floor, and his talent gives him high ceiling. Jordan Howard is reportedly out again this week. Miles Sanders had a lion share of the snaps at RB last week. The Seahawks front 7 is pretty decent, but at his cost I like the opportunity to garner sneaky value from Sanders this week. 

• WR: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley ($8400/$6700), DJ Chark ($7000), Jamison Crowder ($6500), Jordan Matthews ($4500)
  

Did I mention the Bucs pass D is atrocious? Stack Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley (or both) with Matt Ryan this week and enjoy the fireworks. Nick Foles gives a huge boost to DJ Chark’s fantasy potential. Keep expecting big things out of that connection. Jamison Crowder is that guy nobody talks about, but continually puts up big numbers. In his last three games, he’s averaged 17 ppg, making him a low cost option that can boom big. If you really wanna dig deep this week, take a look at Jordan Matthews. He had 6 targets in his first game with the Eagles last week. 

• TE: Zach Ertz ($6100), Ryan Griffin ($5600), Vance McDonald ($5300)
  

Alston Jeffery looks like he’s going to play, but I’m not wavering from Zach Ertz. Ertz has 11 targets in each of the last two games, and now he gets to face a subpar secondary in Seattle that is 27th against TEs. Ryan Griffin is a true boom or bust guy. He could easily go over 20 points in a game, but he can also go for 2. Choose at your own risk. Vance McDonald should have the opportunity to garner more targets this week with Juju Smith-Schuster being out. You could do worse at this position than him. 

• DST: Steelers ($5000), Falcons ($4300)
  

Find defense playing against the Bengals. Pick said defense. If you want an upside defense at a lower cost, take a look at the Falcons. They’ve averaged 18 ppg the last two weeks (one of those at the Saints) and now they get Jameis Winston: king of all things turnovers and sacks. 

Let’s talk about that speed option play....

A lot has been made and talked about regarding the debacle that happened on Sunday night. I have many things I would like to say on a variety of topics, but currently I am still waiting on the All-22 film to be available to go over some things, so I will wait until I can look at that and do a post at a later time. 

For now, I want to talk a little bit about that 3rd and 1 play call in the second half that seems to be a hot topic for...... well literally everyone. Everyone seemingly has an opinion on that play, and I have some (very) strong ones myself. So here we go. 

This play call was absolutely atrocious, and for so many reasons. Let’s start with a simple one:

Third and short is absolutely positively never a doubt in no uncertain terms NOT a situation to EVER call a speed option. It is not a good play call at ANY level (even youth and high school football), let alone in the NFL. There are simply too many things that could go wrong execution-wise that could cause the play to get blown up. It is a slow developing play in a situation where the defense is attacking hard. Third and short situations require the offense to be aggressive and fast in order to counter what the defense is throwing at them. A speed option just isn’t it. 

So let’s move on to execution:

I’ll admit, the play actually sets up decently from what can be seen from the broadcast view. The o-line and Ben Braunecker all get a hat on a hat and leave the DE on an island, a perfect set up for a speed option. However, Mitch Trubisky doesn’t attack downhill and force the DE to make a decision. He prematurely flips it to Montgomery, who ends up getting stretched out wide and going for a loss. 

The argument from people who want to defend Nagy is that this play set up perfectly, and if executed by Mitch properly, goes for an easy first down. 

Listen, I’m not going to disagree with that assessment. However, I’m gonna back this up to my previous point. In this situation, the play needed perfect execution to work, and the Bears didn’t have it. This is not even mentioning the fact Nagy called the play to the short side of the field (which is absolutely an inexcusable mistake). That’s is why so many other play calls are better in this situation. For example, lining up under center (in the I or singleback) and just doing a simple dive handoff has a much higher chance of success. Multiple things can go wrong on a play like that (missed block, penetration, etc.), but all it takes is a RB at full speed to hit the hole hard and keep his legs churning to pick up a measly yard. That’s it. But in this situation, Nagy decided to go with the "cute" play call that required the perfect execution. Which leads me into my next point:

This play call does not put this team specifically in the best position to succeed. 

The Bears have struggled everywhere and with everything this season on offense. So why on an important 3rd and 1 are to putting pressure on your pourous offensive line and your struggling QB (who is dealing with a shoulder injury AND apparently a hip injury that occurred in this game)?

This is not even mentioning the one thing the Bears have been doing well of late:

The I-formation

For the past couple weeks, the Bears have lined up more in the I-formation and attacked downhill with a fullback and a David Montgomery. So why in such an important situation, are you not leaning on the tried and true? Let JP Holtz lead block and go kill another person (like he’s been doing so frequently of late) and let your tough SOB of a RB put his head down and churn his legs. I guarantee you, the Bears pick up the first down in that situation if they go double TE I-formation right up the middle. Show confidence in your offensive line and your RB in this situation and smack the other team right in the mouth. You have no idea the kind of confidence boost that can give your offense and your team as a whole when you get down and dirty in that situation. I am furious that Nagy decided to go soft when he had a perfect opportunity send a message to his whole team (and the league). This is the play that ended the Bears season (and should end Nagy’s coaching tenure with the Bears)