Who are you? Challenges for key Bears personnel this offseason

Mercifully, the 2019 Bears season has finally come to an end. It wasn't pretty, and in fact at times, it was downright awful. So many things went wrong. So many players (and coaches) regressed. All of the sky high expectations came crashing to the floor.

And here we are. Back at square one.

Where do we go from here? Are sweeping changes needed? Off with the heads of Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy? To the dumpster you go Mitchell Trubisky? There's bound to be opinions aplenty this offseason, and I'm sure to have more than a few myself. But with the end of this disappointing season finally here, I wanted to start this off-season by challenging some of the Bears key personnel in management, coaching, and of course the players themselves, to take a good look in the mirror and the answer the question:

"Who are you?"

And it starts at the top:

• Ryan Pace: Are you that elite executive who finds all-pro talent like Eddie Jackson in the 4th round, and then rips off the Oakland Raiders to acquire a future first ballot HOFer in Khalil Mack? Or are you the lackluster talent evaluator who misses on his key first round picks and free agent signings like Trey Burton? You've dug yourself a hole with your mistakes, and your successes aren't enough to get you out of it. The only thing left to do is dig deeper. Can you find a way to be creative and fill the holes on this roster? Can you nail the few draft picks that you have and make this team a contender again? Most importantly, you've hitched your wagon to Mitchell Trubisky: if you believe in him, can you give him the necessary pieces to help him show everybody else why he's worth it?
• Matt Nagy: Can you swallow your pride? This season was a disaster, and the buck stops with the you. Can you give yourself an honest evaluation of how you performed as a leader this season, and then realize what changes need to be made? And if that requires you to give up playcalling duties (which it should), are you willing to let go for the good of the team?
• Chuck Pagano: Can you let the dogs loose and stop worrying about the consequences? A defense that was predicated on being vicious and aggressive under Vic Fangio took a massive step backwards in their first season under your advisement. Sure, you dealt with injuries and an offense that couldn't move the ball. But many times this season, your defense faltered in situations where they previously would step up. Your personnel looked disinterested and overtly cautious. You kept the dogs chained up. Stuck back in "shell" defenses while only sending 3-4 guys after the QB. You were so afraid to give up a big play that you let people walk all over you at times. You took the hunt out of the dogs. Give it back to them. Let them eat. It's what they're good at.

Now for some of the key players:

• Mitchell Trubisky: Are you who everyone thinks you are? The guy who is forever going to be compared to Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson while they laugh at you and the Bears? Or are you that kid with the killer instinct? We've seen it before. Multiple times in fact. 6 TD passes against the Buccaneers. A complete demolition of the Cowboys on national television. Some people say "Oh, he can't do it against good defenses". Well what about the 400+ yards of total offense against the Patriots in 2018? Or how about the poised leader who got the ball back with only 42 seconds left and one timeout in his first playoff game and dropped a beautiful dime to get his team into GW FG position? Are you that guy? Or are you just full of potential, but alas, a disappointment?
  
• David Montgomery: Can you be THAT guy? When you play RB and you put on a Chicago Bears jersey, you've got some big shoes to fill. Payton, Sayers, Grange.... Legends have carried the rock in this city. Expectations are sky high. You've shown flashes of what it is you can do. Can you take it to the next level?
  
• Tarik Cohen: What kind of stones do you have? Are you the guy that absolutely buried Dante Fowler coming on a blitz on national television last year? Or are you so scared of contact, that you just want to run to the sideline every time? It's the size of the fight in the dog that matters right? Well, where's your fight?
  
• Allen Robinson: Can you be mentioned in the same breath as Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins? Do you have what it takes to get on a whole different kind of level?
  
• Anthony Miller: Are you that no name, walk-on, mid major WR with a massive chip on your shoulder? Or are you just about being flashy? We've all seen the potential you have, but how badly do you really want it?
  
• Cody Whitehair: Are you ready to be a leader? This offensive line lost its leader in Kyle Long and suffered drastically. This unit needs someone to step up. This game all starts up front, and no matter what the skill players say, it's won up front as well. Can you be the guy that the team can lean on for leadership?
  
• Akiem Hicks: Are you just a quiet superstar, or are you ready for the whole league to know your name? Can you take that next step and emphatically announce your presence?
  
• Khalil Mack: Are you that generational talent that doesn't care if there's two, three, four, or five guys blocking you? That guy who throws 330 pound tackles into the laps of QBs with only one arm? The guy who's name strikes fear into his opponent because they know no matter what they gameplan and do, it isn't going to matter?
  
• Leonard Floyd: Are you a feared edge defender, or just some guy? Can you be that player who destroys the Packers, but do it against the other 30 teams? Where is your drive? Where is that next level that we've all been waiting for? We've seen the flashes. Now let us see the real thing.
  
• Roquan Smith: Can you be THAT guy? Just like RB, MLB has a long list of legends out of Chicago. Are you the next one? We've seen you all over the field in one game, and then non-existent in the next. This is going to be your defense next season, and for many years to come. Are you ready to show that your worthy of being a Chicago Bears MLB?
  
• Nick Kwiatkowski/Kevin Pierre-Louis: Are you starting caliber LBs, or just flashes in the pan? Do you have what it takes to play at the level you played at this season over the course of 16 games?
  
• Eddie Jackson/Kyle Fuller: Can you get this secondary back to the level where it strikes fear in opposing QBs? Can you once again be those ball hawks that change the game by jumping a route and taking the ball the other way for six? And most importantly, can you mentor the inevitable newcomers and help them take their games to the next level?
  
• Eddy Pineiro: Can you be relied on? A team that has been in constant kicking flux ever since losing Robbie Gould absolutely needs stability and consistency. Are you the guy who missed 4 of 7 FGs between weeks 8 and 11? Or are you the guy who made his final 11 FGs of the season and drilled a 53 yard GW at the buzzer against the Broncos?

This season was not what any of us wanted. Nonetheless, this team has the potential to do great things. It all depends on how this team responds to adversity and answers these questions.

Week 13 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Last week was just straight up not a pretty weekend for my football-wise. My fantasy and gambling picks did not go well at all. But we get right back up on that horse and give it another go. 

Last week: 2-5 Overall: 13-8-1

• Jets (-3) @ Bengals
  

I really like the brand of football the Jets have been playing of late. Sam Darnold is in a groove and the defense has been improving. Andy Dalton takes the reins back for the Bengals in offense, but I don’t think that matters much. 

• Titans (+1) @ Colts
  

This game has big time playoff implications on both sides. Winner stays in the hunt, loser is likely done. The Titans offense has been humming ever since they switched over to Ryan Tannehill and the Colts offense has struggled without TY Hilton. That’s enough for me. 

• Packers (-6.5) @ Giants (under 45)
  

I’m toeing a precarious line here with this spread and under pick, but I’m going to lean towards the Giants offense continuing to struggle and the Packers to be inconsistent. 

• Browns/Steelers under 39
  

This is going to be a UFC fight, not a football game. I don’t expect to see a whole lot of offense in this game. Just a lot of guys lining up and smacking each other in the mouth. 

• Buccaneers/Jaguars over 47
  

Death. Taxes. And Buccaneers games hitting the over. Listen, the formula is simple: the Bucs offense is high powered and their defense stinks. Sprinkle in some decent firepower from the opposing offense and you’ve got yourself a nice over. 

• Patriots/Texans under 46
  

I seriously considered taking the Texans (+3) here as a bold pick, but I don’t have those kind of stones lol. Instead I’ll stick with the under. The Patriots have been unimpressive on offense of late and I think they can stifle the Houston offense enough to keep the game low scoring. 

• Seahawks (-3) v. Vikings (under 50)
  

These picks are both predicated on “primetime Kirk Cousins” showing up. Until I see him perform admirably in a primetime matchup, I’m gonna pick against him and his team.  

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Patrick Mahomes ($8600), Sam Darnold ($7600), Carson Wentz ($7300)
  

Last time the Chiefs played the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes absolutely torched them on the road. Expect more of the same coming out of a bye and at home. Don’t look now, but Sam Darnold is blossoming right before our eyes. He gets another soft matchup against the Bengals this week. I understand if Carson Wentz’s recent struggles scare you off, but the Dolphins secondary is decimated and he also gets Alshon Jeffery back this week. 

• RB: Aaron Jones ($8000), Le’Veon Bell ($7300), Miles Sanders ($5800)
  

Aaron Jones has been a stud all season when he gets to face weak defenses. The Giants should offer a nice bounce back opportunity. I bet on a Le’Veon breakout last week and it didn’t exactly happen despite modest results. Let’s try this one again against a horrible Bengals run D. Tried betting on Miles Sanders last week as well and the results were just ok. Jordan Howard is our yet again and the Dolphins offer up a golden opportunity for a big game. 

• WR: Cooper Kupp ($7800), DJ Moore ($6800), Dede Westbrook ($5700)
  

The Cardinals have not been very good against slot receivers all season. Despite Jared Goff’s struggles, I like the upside of Kupp this week. DJ Moore has been on an absolute tear of late. His current price feels like highway robbery. Dede Westbrook has had 15 targets over the last two weeks with Nick Foles under center and has a weak Buccaneers secondary across from him this week. 

• TE: Travis Kelce ($7100), Darren Waller ($6100), Tyler Higbee ($5500)
  

Travis Kelce tends to abuse the Oakland Raiders and their secondary. He’s worth the price this week. On the other side of the field, Darren Waller gets a promising matchup to bust out of his recent slump. Normally, I would pass on Tyler Higbee who is stepping in for the Gerald Everett, but the Cardinals are dead last against TEs in fantasy so the upside is too good to pass up. 

• DST: Chargers ($3900), Steelers ($3700)
  

The Broncos aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire offensively this season. Should be plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers for a hungry Chargers defense this week. As I mentioned above, I think the Browns/Steelers is going to be a bloodbath this week. Both defenses should be intriguing picks this week, but the Steelers price tag is tantalizing. 

Week 12 NFL and DFS picks

I had another strong week last week (6-1) to push my picks record to 11-3-1. Let’s keep the momentum going:

• Falcons (-3.5) v. Buccaneers
  

I’m buying the Falcons of late, especially their defense. The Bucs are a team in disarray right now, and I think the Falcons can capitalize. 

• Steelers (-6.5) @ Bengals
  

I have my concerns about trusting the Steelers on the road, but the Bengals can make any team look Super Bowl caliber. I think the additional layoff from Pittsburgh’s last game will be beneficial. 

• Dolphins/Browns under 46.5
  

This over/under just seems to be a little too high to me for two offense that have struggled to find consistency this season. These two defenses have also shown some improvement of late. 

• Saints (-9.5) v. Panthers
  

The magic that Kyle Allen had to begin his career as a starter is now gone. Last week, he was demolished by a Falcons defense that is a few steps down from this Saints D. Also, betting the Saints at home is always a pretty safe bet. 

• Jets (+3.5) v. Raiders
  

Here’s my bold pick of the week. I’ve really liked what I’ve been seeing out of the Jets offense the last couple games. They are starting to look more like what everybody thought they would look like before the season started. That coupled with a west coast team traveling cross country for a 1pm eastern start leads me to think an upset is in the works. I’m taking the Jets straight up, so give me those extra 3.5 points. 

• Lions (-4) @ Redskins (over 40)
  

NFL gambling 101: find the team playing the Redskins, and bet them. Victory is assured. Both defenses in this game are terrible, so the over looks tantalizing as well. 

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Matt Ryan ($7900), Sam Darnold ($7400), Nick Foles ($7200)
  

This is my third straight week picking a QB against the Bucs defense. The last two went pretty well. The Bucs are horrible against the pass. As I mentioned above, the Jets offense has been much improved of late, specifically because of Sam Darnold (24.06 ppg in last two). The Raiders pass D is nothing to be afraid of. Make that two straight appearances for Nick Foles in my picks. Last week was a modest performance (18.84 points) and I think he’ll have a better game this week against a weaker pass D (22nd against the pass). Utilize the savings you get from him to spend elsewhere. 

• RB: Le’Veon Bell ($7200), Joe Mixon ($6700), Miles Sanders ($5600)
  

Can you tell I’m buying the Jets this week? Le’Veon Bell hasn’t had a big, explosive game yet this season, but his last three he’s started to find some consistency (15.7 ppg). At his cost, that consistency and upside should be in your lineups. Despite appearances, there is actually one strong fantasy asset in the Bengals offense. Mixon’s volume (averaging 23 touches per game the last 3) gives him a high floor, and his talent gives him high ceiling. Jordan Howard is reportedly out again this week. Miles Sanders had a lion share of the snaps at RB last week. The Seahawks front 7 is pretty decent, but at his cost I like the opportunity to garner sneaky value from Sanders this week. 

• WR: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley ($8400/$6700), DJ Chark ($7000), Jamison Crowder ($6500), Jordan Matthews ($4500)
  

Did I mention the Bucs pass D is atrocious? Stack Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley (or both) with Matt Ryan this week and enjoy the fireworks. Nick Foles gives a huge boost to DJ Chark’s fantasy potential. Keep expecting big things out of that connection. Jamison Crowder is that guy nobody talks about, but continually puts up big numbers. In his last three games, he’s averaged 17 ppg, making him a low cost option that can boom big. If you really wanna dig deep this week, take a look at Jordan Matthews. He had 6 targets in his first game with the Eagles last week. 

• TE: Zach Ertz ($6100), Ryan Griffin ($5600), Vance McDonald ($5300)
  

Alston Jeffery looks like he’s going to play, but I’m not wavering from Zach Ertz. Ertz has 11 targets in each of the last two games, and now he gets to face a subpar secondary in Seattle that is 27th against TEs. Ryan Griffin is a true boom or bust guy. He could easily go over 20 points in a game, but he can also go for 2. Choose at your own risk. Vance McDonald should have the opportunity to garner more targets this week with Juju Smith-Schuster being out. You could do worse at this position than him. 

• DST: Steelers ($5000), Falcons ($4300)
  

Find defense playing against the Bengals. Pick said defense. If you want an upside defense at a lower cost, take a look at the Falcons. They’ve averaged 18 ppg the last two weeks (one of those at the Saints) and now they get Jameis Winston: king of all things turnovers and sacks. 

Let’s talk about that speed option play....

A lot has been made and talked about regarding the debacle that happened on Sunday night. I have many things I would like to say on a variety of topics, but currently I am still waiting on the All-22 film to be available to go over some things, so I will wait until I can look at that and do a post at a later time. 

For now, I want to talk a little bit about that 3rd and 1 play call in the second half that seems to be a hot topic for...... well literally everyone. Everyone seemingly has an opinion on that play, and I have some (very) strong ones myself. So here we go. 

This play call was absolutely atrocious, and for so many reasons. Let’s start with a simple one:

Third and short is absolutely positively never a doubt in no uncertain terms NOT a situation to EVER call a speed option. It is not a good play call at ANY level (even youth and high school football), let alone in the NFL. There are simply too many things that could go wrong execution-wise that could cause the play to get blown up. It is a slow developing play in a situation where the defense is attacking hard. Third and short situations require the offense to be aggressive and fast in order to counter what the defense is throwing at them. A speed option just isn’t it. 

So let’s move on to execution:

I’ll admit, the play actually sets up decently from what can be seen from the broadcast view. The o-line and Ben Braunecker all get a hat on a hat and leave the DE on an island, a perfect set up for a speed option. However, Mitch Trubisky doesn’t attack downhill and force the DE to make a decision. He prematurely flips it to Montgomery, who ends up getting stretched out wide and going for a loss. 

The argument from people who want to defend Nagy is that this play set up perfectly, and if executed by Mitch properly, goes for an easy first down. 

Listen, I’m not going to disagree with that assessment. However, I’m gonna back this up to my previous point. In this situation, the play needed perfect execution to work, and the Bears didn’t have it. This is not even mentioning the fact Nagy called the play to the short side of the field (which is absolutely an inexcusable mistake). That’s is why so many other play calls are better in this situation. For example, lining up under center (in the I or singleback) and just doing a simple dive handoff has a much higher chance of success. Multiple things can go wrong on a play like that (missed block, penetration, etc.), but all it takes is a RB at full speed to hit the hole hard and keep his legs churning to pick up a measly yard. That’s it. But in this situation, Nagy decided to go with the "cute" play call that required the perfect execution. Which leads me into my next point:

This play call does not put this team specifically in the best position to succeed. 

The Bears have struggled everywhere and with everything this season on offense. So why on an important 3rd and 1 are to putting pressure on your pourous offensive line and your struggling QB (who is dealing with a shoulder injury AND apparently a hip injury that occurred in this game)?

This is not even mentioning the one thing the Bears have been doing well of late:

The I-formation

For the past couple weeks, the Bears have lined up more in the I-formation and attacked downhill with a fullback and a David Montgomery. So why in such an important situation, are you not leaning on the tried and true? Let JP Holtz lead block and go kill another person (like he’s been doing so frequently of late) and let your tough SOB of a RB put his head down and churn his legs. I guarantee you, the Bears pick up the first down in that situation if they go double TE I-formation right up the middle. Show confidence in your offensive line and your RB in this situation and smack the other team right in the mouth. You have no idea the kind of confidence boost that can give your offense and your team as a whole when you get down and dirty in that situation. I am furious that Nagy decided to go soft when he had a perfect opportunity send a message to his whole team (and the league). This is the play that ended the Bears season (and should end Nagy’s coaching tenure with the Bears)

Week 11 NFL and DFS picks

In my first effort making picks last weekend, I made out pretty well (5-2-1). Let’s see what I got this week:

• Cowboys (-7) @ Lions

I feel like the Cowboys really need this game, and a soft Lions team comes at the right time. Despite being on the road, I think the Cowboys can easily handle the Lions and get back on track. 

• Jaguars/Colts over 43

Nick Foles is back, and so is Jacoby Brissett. I think this game ends up having a few points scored in it. 

• Saints/Buccaneers over 49.5

I was actually surprised to see this game not even over 50. Marshon Lattimore is out, so the Bucs should be able to find some success through the air. Vintage Brees may show up this week against a bad Bucs secondary. 

• Jets (-2.5) @ Redskins

The Redskins are a bad football team. This pick could easily backfire because the Jets aren’t much better, but I’ll take my chances. 

• Falcons/Panthers over 49.5

Both defenses in this game are atrocious. I don’t expect a repeat of the Falcons performance defensively from last week, so I’ll take the over here. 

• Bengals/Raiders under 48.5

Finally an under! The Raiders may score 35, but is anybody betting on the Bengals breaking 10?

• Bears/Rams under 39.5

This is a low number of points, and I’m still taking the under. Everybody knows about the Bears struggles offensively this season. But have you heard about the Rams? The Bears defense is very banged up, but they’ve still done a solid job of not letting up a whole bunch of points. This may end up being an ugly, low scoring defensive battle. 

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Dak Prescott ($8100), Jameis Winston ($7600), Nick Foles ($7000)

Dak is in the midst of a strong stretch fantasy-wise. Detroit’s defense is coming off of giving up 3TDs to Mitch Trubisky. With Marshon Lattimore being out, Jameis has a shot to blow the top off of the Saints defense this week. People forget, but before Minshew mania started, Nick Foles got off to a hot start in week 1 against the Chiefs. This isn’t the best of matchups, but Foles is still a nice upside play here. 

• RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($8400), Tevin Coleman ($6700), Brian Hill ($5900)

I’m addition to feeling Dak this week, I’m also a fan of Zeke as well. The Lions run defense is pourous so it’s possible both him and Dak can have big games. Tevin Coleman may look like a good pick on paper, but there’s some definite risk. Nonetheless, he could pop off for a huge game. Brian Hill should get a ton of run against a very bad run defense in Carolina. For the price, he should be a great low cost option. 

• WR: Mike Evans ($8200), Jamison Crowder ($6500), DJ Moore ($6000)

Again, Marshon Lattimore is out this weekend. Take advantage by going out and getting Mike Evans. Jamison Crowder has had two straight strong games. The Redskins pass defense is actually solid, but Crowder could still find a path to success. DJ Moore’s target share has been very high of late and he’s been taking advantage. The Falcons pass D is very bad and this game should be a high scoring affair. Moore is a strong option. 

• TE: Darren Waller ($6700), Jared Cook ($6000), Ross Dwelley ($4900)

Waller hasn’t been on point of late, but the Bengals bad defense gives him a shot to perform highly in this game. Jared Cook and Drew Brees are always a good match. Pile on with players in this Bucs/Saints game. If you’re looking for a low cost option/feeling risky, the Cardinals are an NFL-worst against TEs for fantasy. Take advantage by picking Dwelley. 

• DST: Cowboys ($4100), Eagles ($3200)

I’m pretty high on the Cowboys weekend as you can tell. Facing a backup QB in Jeff Driskel, I think the defense can take advantage. If you’re feeling risky (or you’re just looking for a placeholder defense to save cash), I actually would take a chance on the Eagles. The defense has been playing well of late and they get the Patriots at home. 

Week 10 film review roundup: An improvement, but still more to go

So that's what winning feels like.

It has been a little while, but the Bears finally snapped their 4 game losing streak with a 20-13 victory over the Lions Sunday. Not only that, but the offense also showed some signs of life, including three TD passes from Mitch Trubisky.

I took a look at the film again this week (both offense and defense this time) and wanted to share some of my thoughts on the game and the team moving forward.

Mitch Trubisky: Plenty of good, and a little bit of bad

I'm going to start off by saying this: I thought Mitch played very well in this game. I don't believe the early game struggles were on him (he made a couple of good throws and did not get help from his WRs) and he had a nice little stretch from the end of the second quarter throughout the third quarter.

That being said, his performance was not without its flaws. Here are just a couple things I noticed on the film:

• On the first TD drive, Trubisky actually misses A. Robinson breaking wide open down the field for an easy TD (see the two images below). Now he eventually hit B. Braunecker on a beautiful TD pass two plays later, but this is the kind of opportunity you'd like to see Mitch not miss
  
  
• On one of the 4th quarter drives that stalled, Trubisky took a sack on 3rd and 11. The Lions brought pressure and no one was open down the field, however, Mitch missed B. Braunecker who was wide open on a crossing route that could have went for a first down (see image below).
  
• Some shaky pocket presence on a few occasions leading to off-balance throws or missed chances to step up
• A couple of other missed throws that really should be made

Now these are issues that will certainly need correcting, but I didn't see anything too egregious in his performance. Especially considering a couple of really impressive plays/throws he was able to make (including an absolute dime down the field to a covered A. Robinson while he was getting hit and turning in a respectable gain after averting disaster on a bad snap by Whitehair).

Nagy still being Nagy/stubborn

I'm going to keep saying this until he learns his lesson, but Nagy needs to table some of his offensive dreams until this offense gets humming. He also needs to stop trying to get so cute in certain situations. This means sticking with the power run game when it was working instead of switching into the shotgun; and for the love of God, please don't call an empty set on third and 1. That's inexcusable.

Nagy also needs to learn how to balance out his aggressiveness more. I loved that he grew a pair in the second quarter and went for a gutsy 4th and 1 from the Bears own 29. But there was a situation later in the game where the Bears had 3rd and 1 in the 4th quarter and he called a play action shot play (one in which A. Robinson actually stayed in to block). Now I actually like that kind of aggressive play call if it was earlier in the game. But in a situation where you have a lead you're trying to protect and you want the clock to keep running, you want to make sure you get the first down in that situation.

On the flip side, on 3rd and 7 with 1:55 to go in the game and the Lions having two timeouts, I absolutely think he should have thrown the ball in that situation. It was the perfect opportunity to run another rollout pass play (which the Bears had successfully executed twice to that point in the game) to try and pick up a game winning first down. With the Lions having two timeouts remaining at that point, running the ball to force them to burn a timeout doesn't do that much. I'd rather be aggressive and take the shot to win the game.

I will give Nagy credit though, he finally seems to be using T. Cohen properly. The TD pass from Trubisky was on an exceptionally well designed play and is exactly the type of play that Cohen is perfect for.

Offensive line issues persisting

The Bears finally made the decision this week to swap C. Whitehair back to center and J. Daniels back to guard in order to try and improve their offensive line play. The result?

Meh

While it did seem like there was a little better communication up front, there were still issues. J. Daniels did not have his best game at LG, but hopefully he'll improve as he gets more comfortable. R. Coward continues to be very bad and I seriously think he needs to be benched (blocking TE/OL C. Lucas actually looks pretty good whenever he comes in, so either him or A. Bars needs to get a look ASAP). B. Massie also continues to have his issues, but I will stipulate that he seemingly improved as the game went on. Both C. Leno and C. Whitehair played decently, but both need to improve and be more consistent (especially Whitehair with his snaps).

Defensive issues persisting

Lets be clear on one thing first: the words "issues" is a relative one here. The Bears defense is still doing pretty well this season, but the unit is nowhere near its scary self from last season (or even early this year).

Injuries have taken their toll, especially on the D-line. The D-line has really struggled to create consistent pressure on passing plays and consistently stop the run (aside from Nick Williams who has looked very impressive).

These struggles have seemingly extended to the back end on defense as well. More than a few times I noticed the Bears not having the best of coverage in the secondary on passing plays. Both K. Fuller (DPI and holding penalties, blown coverage on Golladay TD) and E. Jackson (missed a couple of guys in coverage) aren't playing up to the level we've come to expect of them. Improvement in this area would go a long way in helping the defense overall.

It also looks like the Bears D is having a lot of communication issues. More than a few times I saw them having trouble getting into proper pre-snap alignments and also not making the proper pre-snap adjustments (a couple times they faced overloaded fronts and didn't adjust the D-line accordingly).

Additional comments

• Replacing D. Trevathan's talent and intensity will be a tough task, but N. Kwiatkowski  is one tough SOB
• D. Montgomery's blend of power and patience is special and fun to watch
• It may just be me, but K. Mack looks a bit off. He's still being very involved in games and a high end player, but there were a few plays I noticed that he usually makes that he couldn't quite get. Have to wonder if he's getting worn down by offenses without Hicks in the lineup
• A. Robinson is a true number 1 WR and needs more plays drawn up for him
• The Bears defense is beyond poor at diagnosing and stopping screen plays
• JP Holtz needs some love. He is an excellent lead blocker
• Poor execution stalled a promising early 4th quarter drive that could have put the game away (Trubisky forced a shot play instead of taking the open crossers underneath on first down, R. Coward missed a key block on a Cohen run on second down that could have been big, bad play design out of an empty set had WRs running into each other on third down coupled with poor protection). The Bears will need to execute better in these situations in the future in order to put games away.

What is ahead?

The Bears will travel to Los Angeles this week to face the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The Rams are reeling right now and are also one of the teams ahead of the Bears in the NFC playoff hunt. This is another critical game for the Bears, and a victory this week could be huge in reigniting their playoff hopes. 

Week 10 NFL and DFS picks

Here are my thoughts on this weekend’s NFL matchups ATS and some DFS picks to look out for. 

NFL:

• Bears (-2.5) vs. Lions

Call this one a little home cooking, but I’m feeling a bounce back from the whole Bears team this weekend. Detroit’s incredibly weak defense opens the door for a confidence building game for the offense.

• Ravens (-10.5) @ Bengals

Road divisional game is no worry for the more talented and explosive Ravens. The Ravens defense will likely feast on Ryan Finley in his first career NFL start. 

• Bills (+3) @ Browns (under 40.5)

I’m honestly not even sure how the Browns are favored in this game. Road game or not, the Bills are a better all around football team. Give me the Bills straight up in a low scoring affair.

• Cardinals @ Buccaneers over 52

This game will turn into a shootout early with two very high powered offenses playing two very bad defenses. Make this bet and then just pray "bad Jameis" doesn’t show up.

• Steelers (+4) vs. Rams (over 43.5)

The Rams coming off of a bye may be enticing, but I’m not loving them as 4 point favorites on the road against a suddenly hot Steelers team (even without James Conner). I actually have the Steelers straight up in this game, but even if the Rams win I think a FG victory is within range for the cover. I also like the over (43.5 should be doable for these two offenses)

• Under 48.5 Dal/Min

Minnesota will be without Adam Thielen again this week and Dallas does a solid job against the run defensively. I’m thinking this one stays relatively low scoring, maybe both teams break into the 20s, but stays under. 

DFS picks (with FanDuel prices): 

• QB: Kyler Murray ($7700), Jameis Winston ($7900), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7100)

With one of the highest over/unders on this week’s slate, I’m buying both QBs in the shootout between the Cardinals and Buccaneers. If you’re looking for a DFS longshot, Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a solid bet. He’s been over 20 points in 2 of his last 3.

• RB: David Montgomery ($6400), Devin Singletary ($6700), Kalen Ballage ($4600)

The Bears have made a strong commitment to running the football the last two weeks, and there’s nobody else getting the carries besides Montgomery (over 20 points each of the last two weeks) against a very bad Lions run D. Devin Singletary now looks like the clear top dog in the Buffalo backfield after a 20 carry performance last week. He’s explosive and he faces a weak Cleveland run D this week. If you really want to dive deep this week, Kalen Ballage is the starting RB for the Miami Dolphins and he doesn’t really have a lot of competition. He probably won’t rack up the yards, but if he falls into the end zone once for a TD he’s a nice little piece. 

• WR: Zach Pascal ($6400), Christian Kirk ($5700), DeVante Parker ($5800)

Zach Pascal has had a couple of strong performcanes of late. With TY Hilton out, he’s stepped in to get a larger target share and made it work, regardless of who is under center. Christian Kirk looks to be fully healthy and plays a horrible Bucs secondary. He’s a nice stacking player to combo with Murray this week. DeVante Parker seems to finally be finding his groove in Miami. Since Fitzpatrick has taken over, he’s really started to shine. His price is too nice to pass up this week. 

• TE: Austin Hooper ($6600), OJ Howard ($5000)

The Saints are a tough defense, but Hooper has been as solid as them come in fantasy this season. And he won’t set you back too much. Call it a hunch, but I think OJ Howard could have his best game of the season this weekend. Arizona is bad against TEs. Stack with Jameis at your own risk. 

• DST: Bills ($4500)

Turnovers and sacks. Buffalo forces them, and the Browns give them up. Spend the little extra coin to get these guys this week.

Comparing last year's playoff game to this season: Are there differences in how the offense functions?

After doing my deep film review of the Bears/Eagles game earlier this week, I got curious to try and compare how the offense is functioning this season compared to last season.

I think last year's Eagles games is a pretty good one to compare for a couple reasons. For one, the Bears just played the Eagles with both teams having relatively the same personnel. Additionally, the Bears put up 356 yards of total offense in that game (despite only scoring 15 points), so it's a pretty good comparison point to a time when the Bears offense was humming.

So I went through that game film and took down some information, and then I watched/re-watched the game film from the Bears last two games (Chargers/Eagles). Here's a breakdown of some of the things I found:

Shotgun plays:

• Playoff game: 52 play calls (42 pass plays)(87% of play calls)
• M. Trubisky: 23/38 (+4-5 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 297 yards and a TD, 2 scrambles for 10 yards and 2 coverage sacks, 8 mistakes (19% of dropbacks) by Trubisky by my count (2 poor reads and 6 missed throws)
• 7 rushes for 45 yards (12 on a run against prevent D and 21 on a reverse: 5 for 12 yards without)
• Last 2 games: 72 play calls (51 pass plays)(65% of play calls)
• M. Trubisky: 25/42 (+2-3 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 280 yards and an INT, 4 scrambles for 19 yards and 6 sacks (1 coverage, 1 bad taken), 6 mistakes (12% of dropbacks) by Trubisky by my count (fumble on a sack, INT thrown, 3 missed throws, 1 bad sack taken)
• 18 rushes for 86 yards (55 on one carry: 17 for 31 without)

The Bears have actually ran a lower percentage of their plays out of the shotgun in this comparison, which I wasn't initially expecting. In the last two games, there has been a more concerted effort to run the ball overall, leading to more carries out of the shotgun. That being said, the Bears had 17 of those runs in the Chargers game, showcasing a shift in the play calling to focus on more under center and downhill runs. One thing that does stand out to me is the lower percentage of "mistakes" that Trubisky is making. Of course, this number can be subjective. What I based it on is any throws that Trubisky missed an open WR or made a poor read to throw into coverage, along with any turnovers or sacks that he took that shouldn't have happened. Now there are always things that could be more on him that could be counted (poor audibles, protection adjustments, etc.) so I don't want this to sound like he's not making mistakes. The point was merely to compare between the games, and I stayed consistent with my judgements between them. One thing that also stands out is the sheer number of sacks, which I'll get in to next.

Clean pocket pass plays:

• Playoff game: 38/43 pass plays (88% of dropbacks)
• M. Trubisky was 22/35 (+3-4 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 280 yards and a TD, 1 scramble for 4 yards, 7 mistakes by Trubisky (2 poor reads and 5 missed throws)
• Under pressure: Trubisky was 2/5 for 14 yards, 1 scramble for 6 yards, 1 mistake (a missed throw he should have made)
• Last 2 games: 40/56 pass plays (71% of dropbacks)
• M. Trubisky was 25/37 (+2-3 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 211 yards and an INT, 2 sacks (1 coverage, 1 bad taken), 3 mistakes by Trubisky (INT thrown, missed throw, bad sack taken),
• Under pressure: Trubisky was 2/6 for 4 yards, 3 scrambles for 12 yards and 4 sacks, 1 mistake by Trubisky (a fumble)

Now here is where we are starting to see some differences.We were all thinking it, but now here is the hard proof. Trubisky is definitely under more pressure this season. The offensive line has been struggling mightily this year, and that is certainly contributing to the issues offensively. A near 20% increase in pressures is inexcusable. But why has pressure been so increased? Well from the film, I'll start off by saying that it isn't always just free runners. A lot of the time, the offensive line is able to stay engaged, but they get driven backwards and deposited into Trubisky's lap (see James Daniels on the third play from scrimmage this past Sunday against the Eagles). What I also noticed from the film is that teams are often bringing more pressure overall while pressing the Bears receivers (especially the Eagles). Whether this is just teams forcing the Bears WRs to beat them (and they aren't) or teams forcing Trubisky to speed up his clock and make mistakes is unclear. What I will say is that despite Trubisky's struggles with accuracy and efficiency this season, he has not been picked off much (only 3 so far this season). What can definitively be determined from this data is that Trubisky, like all other QBs, does well with a clean pocket. We just haven't see it that much this season.

Quick passing plays (pass in < 2.3 seconds):

• Playoff game: 12/14 for 127 yards (+1 completion that could have been made by WRs), 1 missed throw by Trubisky
• Last two games: 11/14 for 66 yards (1 incompletion under pressure)

Here is another fundamental difference in the Bears scheme. In the playoff game, the Bears focused on getting the ball out of Trubisky's hands quickly. On top of that, many of the plays called were designed to get WRs open quickly (including a saucy double move by Robinson that went for a 45 yards completion). This season, the Bears haven't done a good job of drawing up plays to get the ball out of Trubisky's hand quickly. Now some of that comes down to adjustments teams have made to Trubisky (which is why the Bears are seemingly seeing more press coverage this season). But at the same time, the Bears have refused to attack consistently down the field to soften up defenses. Part of that has to do with the protection not holding up, but as I just highlighted above, it is possible to attack down the field while still getting the ball out quickly. With that I want to pause for a second for a public service announcement:

RUN A DOUBLE MOVE SOMETIME CHICAGO!!!

-cough-.... Ahem. Ok I'm back

Take a look at this disparity:

Double moves in the playoff game: 3 completions for 101 yards (33% of Trubisky's yards in that game) and a TD. A. Robinson was straight cooking the Eagles secondary in this game on double moves.
Double moves in the last two games: Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Negatory. Nothing. Nil.

Ok, ok, I'll stop. But you can clearly see my point. The Bears refusal to attack down the field in any form (especially on double moves) has allowed teams to play more underneath and take away the quick passing game.

This leads me to one final thing I want to touch on that I noticed, specifically while I was watching the playoff game film:

Trubisky's confidence

Listen, we all know he's pretty shaken up right now. He's been destroyed by the national (and local) media and a lot of fans are turning on him. And look, I get it. It has been an ugly season and he hasn't progressed the way everyone wanted (or expected) him to. I'm plenty frustrated at him as well.

But then I watched that playoff film again, and man, he's a different dude in that game. You can just see it in his demeanor in the pocket. He's catching the snap from center, finding his read, and then slinging it. He's making hard pump fakes on double moves that are just freezing defenders. He's making decisive decisions to pull the ball and scramble when necessary. He just looks different in that film. So how do we get that confident kid back?

Well the Bears have to play to Trubisky's strengths (get him and the pocket moving, designed QB runs, double moves [he's actually pretty good at these], and getting the ball out quickly), which they have failed to do all season. And this isn't just because him and the offense will have more success doing those certain things, it's also because when he can do those things well, it builds confidence. And confidence breeds confidence. Then you can get into the more complicated things that Matt Nagy has been trying to run all season that haven't been working. This is how the Bears break out of their slump and get the offense rolling once more:

Let Trubisky be Trubisky

Bears/Eagles film review: So what is the problem exactly?

This season for the Chicago Bears has been a forgettable one, especially on the offensive side of the ball. There's been a lot of the blame to go around, and almost no one is immune. Personally, I have been saying for weeks to fellow fans and on my social media that I think the problem is not Mitchell Trubisky, but it's the scheme and play calling of Matt Nagy.

Since I live in Delaware now-a-days, I don't get to watch much Bears football. From the bits and pieces that I get to see, I thought that Mitch was getting unfairly blamed for a lot of things that weren't actually on him. But again, I only get to see so much, so it was difficult to be sure about this conclusion.

With the Bears traveling to Philly to face the Eagles, it was a perfect opportunity to watch a full Bears game from start to finish. I was fortunate enough to attend the week 9 game live and in person, and this gave the added advantage of getting to see the whole field and not just the broadcast.

I must admit, I was fuming during the game. The first half was some of the worst offense I have ever seen in my life. But here's the thing:

I was fuming at Matt Nagy. Nobody else.

I was calling for his head to be on the chopping block Monday morning. I just could not stand his stubbornness and sheer unwillingness to call plays that will make the offense successful. All he wants to do is sit in the shotgun and do all of this nonsense to try and be like the Kansas City Chiefs, when in reality, the Bears (and Trubisky) are a much better football team all around when they line up under center and play a little power football (like last season).

And guess what? In the second half, the Bears came out and started playing that brand of football (FINALLY!). It lead to 14 second half points and over 150 yards of offense (that includes not even getting to see the ball the last 9 minutes of the game).

After the game, I actually felt a bit better about the offense and Trubisky. But a lot of other people clearly didn't. I was sitting with my father (who has coached football for over 40 years) the whole game and we both agreed:

We thought Trubisky played really well in the second half. And the first half problems weren't on him.

So I got back into my defensive stance on Trubisky, trying to defend him from everyone on social media and whatnot. But I started to wonder, was I missing something that everybody else was seeing in him? Were the struggles actually on him, or does the scheme really matter that much?

So I decided to dive a little deeper and do some film analysis. I recently got access to NFL Game Pass so I took the time (a long amount of time) to go through every last one of the Bears offensive plays and to analyze it: both play call and execution-wise in a completely objective manner.

I wanted to use the "coaches film" version that has all 22 players in it, but unfortunately it still isn't posted as of Monday at 7pm est and I really wanted to post this ASAP. There's only a couple of plays where I couldn't get the full picture, but I feel like I was able to get pretty much everything I needed from the broadcast view. Here's what I found:


1Q 15:00 3 plays 1 yard 1:42 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own25): Offset I formation (20T), D. Montgomery off left tackle for 4 yards. Good double team and push by Daniels/Whitehair. The Bears seemingly learned their lesson from last week and line up in a power formation from the get go.
2. 2nd and 6 (Own29): Singleback (20 twin TE right), D. Montgomery up the middle for -3 yards. Fletcher Cox jumps the snap and blows up Coward/Massie to disrupt the play.
3. 3rd and 9 (Own26): Shotgun (12)(Wing TE left), M. Trubisky pass short right incomplete to A. Robinson. Brandon Graham beats R. Coward and Fletcher Cox deposits J. Daniels into Trubisky’s lap. Trubisky has to throw off his back foot and can’t drive the football (see image below), overthrowing A. Robinson who had beaten Avonte Maddox on a nice out route.
   

1Q 6:45 3 plays -2 yards 1:07 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own27): Shotgun (23), M. Trubisky sacked for -4 yards. Eagles rush 4, protection moderate, but not outstanding. R. Coward gets destroyed again, ends up tripping over himself. Trubisky has both A. Robinson and A. Miller open and is looking directly at them. He hesitates/pumps, and that was the end of things. Trubisky needs to trust what he sees here and get the ball out on time.
2. 2nd and 14 (Own23): Shotgun (13Bunch), M. Trubsiky pass short left dropped by T. Cohen. Eagles bring 5, but the initial rush is held up briefly. Trubisky looks immediately left, eliminating the three WR route combo on the right side from the play. Left WR A. Robinson’s dig route is blanketed, so Cohen sneaking out of the backfield is Trubisky’s only option. Cohen tries to make a move before the ball is secured, leading to a drop. I'm not sure if Trubisky is meant to immediately look left here or not, but regardless, you can't just eliminate the route combination on the right side like that.
3. 3rd and 14 (Own23): Shotgun (12)(Wing TE right), M. Trubisky pass short left complete to D. Montgomery for 2 yards, C. Leno holding penalty declined. Eagles rush 4 and get a strong push, but nobody breaks through. Trubisky floats left and misses an open lane to step up, forcing him to make a weak, double pump dump off to Montgomery. Eagles run a cover 3 shell and easily cover up the 3 man route. The Bears have really no chance to convert in these situations, especially on only 3 man routes.

2Q 13:22 3 plays -6 yards 3:03 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own25): Singleback (21)(Wing TE left), T. Cohen jet motion left to right, D. Montgomery off left tackle for 3 yards, C. Patterson holding penalty accepted. Bears start behind the chains for a second straight drive.
2. 1st and 20 (Own15): Singleback (21)(Wing TE right), D. Montgomery up the middle for 8 yards, Timmy Jernigan offsides penalty accepted. Bears get some of that holding penalty yardage back.
3. 1st and 15 (Own20): Pistol (10)(Trips TE right), M. Trubisky pass short right complete to D. Montgomery for 4 yards. Eagles rush 4, R. Coward gets destroyed by Derek Barnett to create pressure on Trubisky. Looks like the Bears may have been trying to draw up a wheel route for T. Burton, but the Eagles do a decent job of shutting it down (see Burton at the top of the image below). This is a poorly designed play with only one real option down the field in Burton, leaving Trubisky no choice but to check down to Montgomery.
   
4. 2nd and 11 (Own24): Shotgun (31), M. Trubisky quick screen left to T. Gabriel for 3 yards. Watching this live, I was unhappy with the predictability of the play call (2nd and long screen play). Re-watching it though, this play actually sets up very nicely. Trubisky gets the ball out quickly and on the numbers to Gabriel. The keys to the play are A. Robinson taking care of the corner over Gabriel (which he does) and C. Leno getting outside to block the final defender outside. Leno is far too slow, allowing Sidney Jones to shoot the gap and close the wide open lane that could have been created for Gabriel.
5. 3rd and 8 (Own27): Shotgun (13), M. Trubisky sacked for -8 yards. Eagles show pressure pre-snap and bring 6. The offensive line and the back (Montgomery) actually do a good job initially picking up the blitz. However, J. Daniels doesn’t pass off his rusher to R. Coward (who ends up blocking nobody) and Derek Barnett gets a clean run through for the sack. WRs really had no chance to even get into their routes on this play, so this was doomed from the start.

2Q 6:21 3 plays -2 yards 1:42 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own20): A. Shaheen false start. Bears behind the chains...... again
2. 1st and 15 (Own15): Singleback (Bunch 30), A. Robinson jet motion left to right, D. Montgomery sweeps left for no gain. T. Burton prematurely passes off Nathan Gerry before C. Whitehair gets outside far enough. Whitehair never picks up Gerry, who goes on to blow up the play.
3. 2nd and 15 (Own15): Shotgun (13), M. Trubisky shovel pass to T. Cohen for 3 yards. This is a designed dump off. J. Daniels releases immediately, but doesn’t take a good angle to seal off Kamu Grugier-Hill, who had dropped into coverage. C. Leno and C. Whitehair both also release, but go straight up the field instead of angling to the right side (where Cohen was designed to catch and run). A. Robinson and T. Burton both don’t block anybody either. The only guy getting mean is T. Gabriel, who actually puts a strong block on his guy. Beyond the poor execution, I also really hate this play call because it’s way too generic and not fooling anybody. The Bears have yet to threaten downfield to this point in the game, and they’re severely behind the chains. Defenses are looking for this play under these circumstances, which puts a premium on execution (which the Bears did not nail here).
4. 3rd and 12 (Own18): Shotgun (21)(Wing TE left), M. Trubisky deep pass left incomplete to A. Robinson. Eagles rush 4 and Massie whiffs on his block. However, Trubisky is able to roll left away from the pressure and R. Coward gets enough of Josh Sweat to slow him up so Mitch can throw a dart to Robinson, but Robinson can’t keep his feet in bounds. In all honesty, this was probably Mitch’s best throw of the day. Rolling to his left, he drops an absolute dime to Robinson, getting it over the leaping Avonte Maddox, in front of Ronald Darby, and with enough space for Robinson to stay in bounds (see image below). There is no reason Robinson shouldn’t have made this play.
   

2Q 3:05 3 plays -11 yards 1:05 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own36): Shotgun (12)(Wing TE right), M. Trubisky short pass right dropped by T. Cohen. The Bears call a rollout play and T. Burton and B. Massie do a good job of setting the edge. T. Cohen whips Jalen Mills on a nice comeback route and Trubisky puts the pass right on the numbers. Cohen again tries to get going before he’s secured the catch, leading to his second drop. I like that the Bears finally get Trubisky moving behind the LOS, but I have problems with the play design. Pre-snap, Burton comes across the formation from left to right to end up on the wing. The purpose of this was to allow Burton to chip the DE to help Massie before getting into his route. While this was successful, the motion causes Malcolm Jenkins to rotate down to the LOS in a press position on Burton. Jenkins, who is an outstanding defender, quickly reads the rollout and is able to pin Burton on his inside shoulder and get pressure on Trubisky, forcing a quick throw. A better play design would have Burton line up at the left wing and incorporate a run fake from right to left. Burton slide across the formation, forcing either his cover guy in man to work through traffic to stay with him, or the zone defender to identify him crossing the field (this is exactly what the Eagles did on multiple occasions with Zach Ertz). Additionally, without Jenkins having rotated down to the LOS, the extra pressure, which forced a quick throw, is not created. This leads to another issue in play design. This play is clearly designed to go to Cohen and Cohen only. It looks to me like Gabriel (in the slot on the right side of the formation) is supposed to run a corner route. However, he does not even try to create separation and does not run the route hard. If he does, there’s a good chance he can beat Avonte Maddox, who was trailing him and had no over the top help. Though Cohen was wide open, a hard running Gabriel down the field is a shot at a big play. But a missed opportunity here.
2. 2nd and 10 (Own36): Shotgun (12)(Twin TE left), M. Trubisky deep pass left incomplete to T. Burton. Eagles rush 4 and B. Massie gets beat inside by Vinny Curry. Trubisky probably could have stepped into the throw more, but doesn’t get into it a bunch as he gets hit after the release. Watching this live, I thought that Burton may have cut off his route instead keeping going down the seam. But re-watching it, it looks like the throw may have instead sailed on Trubisky. Despite the pressure, Trubisky should still be able to really drive this football and hit Burton here.
3. 3rd and 10 (Own36): Shotgun (22), M. Trubisky sacked for -11 yards. The Eagles bring 6 and get immediate, heavy pressure. C. Whitehair gets driven back into Trubisky’s lap. D. Montgomery gets run over. J. Daniels looks the wrong direction off snap and completely misses Genard Avery who comes through the middle untouched. R. Coward and B. Massie both actually do a good job here, but it doesn’t matter as Malcom Jenkins also gets a free run from the left side and combines with Avery for the sack. Its unfortunate there was so much pressure because it looks as though A. Robinson may have beaten his man in coverage to give Trubsiky an opportunity to hit him. But just as he was coming open, Mitch was already getting sacked. These are the challenges you face when you put yourself in 3rd and longs like this.

2Q 1:03 5 plays 34 yards 0:36 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own7): Shotgun (31), M. Trubisky pass short right complete to T. Cohen for 6 yards. Eagles rush 4 and protection is airtight. This again looks like a designed play to Cohen in the flat, most likely to get the Bears away from their own end zone. It’s pretty well covered, but Cohen makes a good move to get the yardage.
2. 2nd and 4 (Own13): Shotgun (32), M. Trubisky scrambles left for 7 yards, Andrew Sendejo unnecessary roughness penalty accepted. Eagles rush 4 and protection is solid, but C. Leno does get beat a bit inside by Derek Barnett. Trubisky does a good job of not forcing the ball to A. Robinson and feeling the pressure to spin out to the wide open field on the left. I like how he kept his eyes downfield during the scramble, but in the end decides to pick up the easy first down.
3. 1st and 10 (Own35): Shotgun (13), M. Trubisky pass short left complete to A. Robinson for 6 yards. Eagles rush 4 and protection is strong. Robinson runs a quick hitch route and Trubisky gets the ball out on time and on the numbers for an easy catch. 
4. 2nd and 4 (Own41): Shotgun (23), M. Trubisky deep pass right incomplete to A. Miller. Eagles rush 4, and while the protection is moderate, R. Coward does get beat a little leading to a hurry on Trubisky. The pressure in his face again forces Trubisky to throw off his back foot, causing the ball to sail a bit. Even so, Miller doesn’t do a good job of creating any separation from Avonte Maddox. An excellent back shoulder throw could get a completion here, but its anything from easy. There may have been a way for Trubisky to maneuver in the pocket and extend the play, but it was hardly blatant. T. Gabriel looks to be open, but for only a minimal gain. I take more issue with play design here. Again the Bears are in an empty set, which is not my favorite set for them. But more so, the issue is this is really only a one receiver route with Miller on the fade (see image below). There are no other threats across the field, not only making this an easier play to cover, but also limiting options. I appreciate trying to get the ball down the field in this situation, but not in this way.
   
5. 3rd and 4 (Own41): Shotgun (12)(Wing TE left), M. Trubisky pass intermediate right incomplete to T. Cohen. The Bears call another rollout play, but D. Montgomery misses his cut block on Josh Sweat and Malcolm Jenkins beats R. Coward to create pressure. Trubisky has a decently sized window to hit Cohen, but the throw ends up being too high (For him at least. He gets his hands on this ball in the image below, but he just doesn't have enough reach that any other receiver would have). My question here is: why is Cohen the one running this route? Cohen is 5’6". He is absolutely too small to be running this route in this window. Should Mitch have hit him? Probably, yea. Does Mitch hit literally any other receiver on this team if they’re running this route? Probably, yea.
   
   
   
   
   

3Q 10:37 7 plays 75 yards 4:08 TOUCHDOWN

1. 1st and 10 (Own25): Offset I (11)(TE left), D. Montgomery up the middle for 7 yards. The Bears offensive line creates no movement up front and the Eagles collapse on the LOS. However, everyone has a hat on a hat and Montgomery makes a nice jump cut to make Brandon Graham miss, and he shoots through a huge hole created by a nice block by A. Shaheen on Malcolm Jenkins. Montgomery finishes with some nice power to pick up an extra 2 yards at the end of the run. I really appreciate that even though they were down 19, the Bears went power football here (like I assume they scripted during halftime). This commitment is going to pay off in a couple plays.
2. 2nd and 3 (Own32): Offset I (11)(TE right), D. Montgomery off left tackle for 4 yards. C. Leno makes a good block to take Brandon Graham out of the play and JP Holtz buries Kamu Grugier-Hill on the lead block. J. Daniels is slow off the ball, but gets a nice chip from C. Whitehair to recover while Whitehair gets on to the second level. R. Coward and B. Massie also do a good job on their combo block. Montgomery misses a chance at a big time run on a cutback to the right (see image below), and instead runs into the thick of everything on the left. He gets the first down, but man, there was a huge hole there.
   
3. 1st and 10 (Own36): Singleback (02)(Twin TE left), D. Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards. The Eagles have 8 guys in the box and the offensive line gets no push. Montgomery is able to find a small little hole though and dives forward for the short gain. This play is critical however, as I’ll explain in a second.
4. 2nd and 8 (Own 38): Offset I (01)(Wing TE right), M. Trubisky pass deep left complete to T. Gabriel for 53 yards. Eagles rush 4 and get absolutely no push. All the LBs for the Eagles and Malcolm Jenkins freeze a little on the play action fake. This allows Gabriel the necessary depth to get behind Jenkins (who also looked a little lost on this play). He then puts a nice stutter step on Jalen Mills to make him think he’s going outside, and breaks free across the field. Jenkins is too slow to recover and its an easy completion. The previous three plays have set this one up, especially the first down run. The Bears line up in a power formation with only 1 WR on the field, and announce they’re going to run the ball. Instead, they go for the shot play and Trubisky hits Gabriel on the deep crossing route for a huge gain. Say what you want about "If Mitch leads Gabriel properly it’s a walk-in touchdown", Trubisky dropped this in the bread basket for an easy 50+ yard gain. From here on out, the field has been opened and now the whole offense is in a position to succeed. All because the Bears came out and ran the football three straight times to start the half. 
5. 1st and goal (Opp9): Shotgun (02)(Twin TE left), M. Trubisky runs left for 8 yards. The Bears run a read option with Trubisky and T. Cohen and get Derek Barnett to bite on Cohen. T. Burton gets a good, initial block on Malcolm Jenkins, but Jenkins breaks his hands and forces Trubisky to cut the run outside (cutting up could possibly have been an easy touchdown). Burton is able to recover and seal Jenkins inside to allow Trubisky the edge. A. Robinson never gets a block on Ronald Darby, keeping Trubisky from having a walk in touchdown. Trubisky is able to avoid Darby’s tackle attempt but is unable to spin out of Kamu Grugier-Hill’s grasp. The ball pops out at the end of the play, but it’s clear from re-watching that it was not a fumble (as ruled correctly on the field). I really liked this play call. The Bears finally allow Trubisky to use his athleticism and it pays off with an easy gain to inside the 1 (albeit it should have been a touchdown).
6. 2nd and goal (Opp1): Singleback (12)(TE right), T. Cohen up the middle for no gain. The Bears rushed to the LOS to get a quick snap just in case there might have been a fumble on the previous play (that’s why Cohen is in the game). I’m not going to nitpick too much here because I understand why they tried to snap so quickly. The only thing I’ll say is I hate the 3 receiver set they were in. There were two TEs in the game so you could have at least gone double tight or some sort of offset I. I also don’t know why Trubisky didn’t just go for a sneak. Cohen was lucky to hang on to this football as well (he tried to extend over the goal line and it looked a little wobbly).
7. 3rd and goal (Opp1): Goal-line formation, D. Montgomery off left tackle for a 1 yard touchdown. The Bears brought in an extra offensive lineman (C. Lucas) and ran right at him. The left side of the line gets a decent push to open a lane for Montgomery, but R. Coward gets beat across his face. Nonetheless, Montgomery finishes the run nicely to get into the end zone.

3Q 3:55 3 plays 4 yards 1:23 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Opp48): Offset I (11)(TE right), D. Montgomery off left tackle for 3 yards. The offensive line only gets a moderate amount of push, but everyone has a hat on a hat. Unfortunately, Malcolm Jenkins is unblocked off the right edge and he cuts the run down to only a modest 3 yard gain. Nonetheless, I really liked how the Bears went right back to the power game after the success on the previous drive.
2. 2nd and 7 (Opp45): Offset I (11)(TE right), D. Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard. The Eagles have 8 players in the box yet again with press coverage on the outside and a single high safety. R. Coward again lets his defender (Fletcher Cox) cross his face, forcing JP Holtz to forgo blocking a LB and help. This leaves two Eagles LBs unblocked and nowhere for Montgomery to go. I’m torn on this play call. On one hand, I want to see the Bears keep pounding the rock. Despite the 8 man front, this play still could have been successful for 3+ yards if Coward doesn’t get blown up. That being said, this is a perfect opportunity for another shot play. With the single high safety, a play action fake and a two man route with A. Robinson (covered by Ronald Darby) and Taylor Gabriel (covered by Jalen Mills) down the field is a better play call in my opinion. Have max protection and allow Trubisky look the safety off and see if a WR can beat a guy or win a 50/50 ball. Especially in this part of the field, that is a missed opportunity.
3. 3rd and 7 (Opp45): Shotgun (23), M. Trubisky pass short left incomplete to A. Robinson. Eagles rush 5 and the Bears pick everyone up, but C. Whitehair gives too much ground and gets pushed back into Trubisky. Additionally, R. Coward lets Vinny Curry cross his face, gives him one shove, then blocks someone else’s guy. The Eagles are in press man across the board (except whoever is guarding Cordarrelle Patterson, I can't make out the number) with a single high safety again. Every receiver runs a route to the sticks. This play is bad on so many different levels. First, the Bears are again in an empty set. Second, every receiver is running a stick route, which is a common theme for the Bears in third and medium situations. There are no threats of them going down the field, which is exactly why the Eagles are in press man in this situation. Also, you can see how predictable the call is by the way that Rasual Douglas covers Robinson (see bottom of image below). He is inside of him, looking directly at him, and waiting for him to breakdown at the sticks. This is why this pass has no chance of completion. This also makes me wonder: when was the last time the Bears ran anyone on a double move? The final thing that bugs me about this play is that Trubisky misses the only open receiver on this play. Patterson was the only guy who wasn’t being pressed at the LOS (he had 7 yards of separation). Having to respect Patterson’s speed, the corner over him ends up backpedaling a couple yards off snap as well, leaving Patterson more than enough cushion and Trubisky enough room to fire one in there for the first down (see top of image below). But Trubisky puts too much faith in Robinson and it backfires. Whether this is just a poor read on his part or just too much reliance on Robinson/lack of faith in other WRs is hard to tell. This was a frustrating drive because they started already in plus territory and couldn’t even get a first down.
   

3Q 1:04 8 plays 58 yards 3:21 TOUCHDOWN

1. 1st and 10 (Own42): I-formation (11)(TE left), M. Trubisky pass deep right incomplete to A. Robinson. The Bears run a play action fake. The Eagles only rush 4 and the pocket is pristine. Robinson runs a good route and gets behind Jalen Mills. Trubisky gets to the top of his drop and gets completely into this throw, however, it's slightly underthrown which allows Mills  to recover enough to make a good play on the ball and Robinson is unable to hang on. Again, I love the Bears coming out and calling a shot play right away. The Eagles have 8 in the box with 1 high safety yet again. The Bears commitment to the run on the previous two drives (even despite facing 8 man fronts) allows the play action to be successful. Contrary to popular belief, this was not a bad throw by Trubisky. I saw many people complaining about how Robinson beat his man but Trubisky drastically underthrew him and let the defender make a play. Let’s clear a few things up here: first off, this throw was going directly into a wind of maybe 10-15 mph (trust me, it was blowing directly into my face all game, it wasn’t fun). Second, despite the ball being underthrown, Robinson only has to take a couple of false steps to slow down for the ball. Granted, this is enough time for Mills to recover to make a play on the ball, but nonetheless, this ball is still in a very good position for Robinson to bring it in. Robinson tries to high point the ball, but he doesn’t go and get it well enough (see image below). He kinda catches the ball in his body (where Mills can make a play) instead of out in front (where Mills can’t). Even though Mills is able to make some sort of play, I still think this is a ball Robinson should get. Trubisky certainly could make a better throw, but the throw he did make definitely put his receiver in a good position to make a play.
   
   
   
2. 2nd and 10 (Own42): Shotgun (22), D. Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards. R. Coward whiffs on his block. Live, I hated this play call. On my full speed re-watch, I hated this play call. Watching in slow motion however, I’m actually moderately impressed by the play design. The Bears draw up a play for the RG/RT to not block the DT/DE on their side, and instead, immediately work to the next level. C. Whitehair comes across on a trap block, which takes out the DT and actually seals off the DE to create a seam to run through. However, yet again Coward gets beat. He’s off-balance on his block picking up the A-gap blitzer (Genard Avery), who just throws him to the side with ease to blow up the play. If Coward doesn’t miss this block, this run probably goes for 10+ yards easily (see the unblocked man in the image below).
   
3. 3rd and 8 (Own44): Shotgun (31), M. Trubisky pass medium left to T. Gabriel for 13 yards. Eagles rush 4 and the Bears create a smooth pocket. Trubisky is able to step up and fire a dart to  Gabriel (I swear I saw a puff of smoke behind this pass). Gabriel does a great job of finding the hole in the coverage and sitting there, while Mitch does a great job of finding him (it looks to me that Gabriel may have been either the second or third read on this play). Well called and execute play for a big first down.
4. 1st and 10 (Opp43): Shotgun (03), T. Cohen jet motion right to left, M. Trubisky pass deep middle complete to D. Montgomery for 30 yards. Eagles rush 4 and the Bears create a solid, but collapsing pocket. Cohen’s jet motion creates confusion in the Eagles LB core, allowing free runs on crossing routes by T. Burton (short crosser) and A. Robinson (deep crosser). While struggling to pick up the crossing routes, the Eagles secondary loses track of Montgomery, who sneaks out of the backfield and up the seam for probably the easiest completion of the day. This play is exceptionally designed. The pre-snap motion by Cohen accomplishes its goal by freezing and confusing the short cover guys. In recovering, two guys end up covering the same player (Burton). Robinson’s deep crossing route is able to hold both the safeties, and Montgomery is able to have a picnic in the middle of the field because there’s so much space. Give Nagy a gold star on this one.
5. 1st and 10 (Opp13): Shotgun (13), M. Trubisky pass short left complete to C. Patterson for 5 yards. Eagles rush 4 and the offensive line creates a clean pocket. Trubisky hits Patterson (who is wide open) on an easy timing route. This is the 4th straight play the Bears were in the shotgun, and I’m not even mad. Now that they have established the power game under center, the field has opened up, and now so can the offense. Here, the Bears run a simple 2-man route concept with D. Montgomery running in the flat and Patterson sitting down between the coverage. It’s a simple play design, but it’s a good extension of the running game to set up 2nd and manageable inside the 10.
6. 2nd and 5 (Opp8): Singleback (31), C. Patterson jet motion left to right, T. Cohen sweeps left for 7 yards. M. Trubisky fakes the jet sweep to Patterson before flipping it out to Cohen. The Bears pull both C. Whitehair and C. Leno on the toss, leaving J. Daniels in a tough position to have to reach Timmy Jernigan. While he gets manhandled, Daniels is able to stay engaged and keep Jernigan from blowing up the play. On the front side, C. Patterson absolutely flattens Derek Barnett on an excellent block. Daniels does a great job of looking inside on his pull and is able to seal off Malcolm Jenkins from making a play in the backfield from the backside. Leno is able to get down the field and body up Ronald Darby, leaving everyone sealed off on the play side. But man, I gotta give Fletcher Cox credit on this play. He fights off a solid block by B. Massie on the backside, then takes a perfect angle (fighting through traffic) to track down Cohen to keep the play from being an easy touchdown. I like this play call a lot because this is exactly what Cohen is supposed to be used for. Great misdirection design and great execution.
7. 1st and goal (Opp1): Goal-line formation, D. Montgomery off left tackle for no gain. The Bears try a power play, pulling Coward and blocking down on the left side. Leno/Whitehair/Daniels all actually do a solid job of washing everything down and a crease opens, but Coward is soft on his pull and catches the defender instead of exploding through him, causing the hole to be smaller and forcing Montgomery back into traffic. In order to get through it, Montgomery needs to hurdle and this loses him all power and he is stopped by reinforcements. One thing that I didn’t get here was there was absolutely no one in the right side A-gap defensively. Why was their no audible to a straight QB sneak right at the wide open gap?
8. 2nd and goal (Opp1): Singleback (00)(Twin TE left), D. Montgomery up the middle for a 1 yard touchdown. Left side of the offensive line gets a solid push and Montgomery finishes with the leap over the top.

4Q 10:14 4 plays 18 yards 1:35 PUNT

1. 1st and 10 (Own30): Offset I (02), D. Montgomery off right tackle for 17 yards. B. Massie takes Derek Barnett out of the play immediately while J. Daniels and R. Coward make a nice combo block. JP Holtz makes another strong lead block to take Kamu Grugier-Hill out of the play. The play is really made by C. Whitehair, who completely seals off the backside (Malcolm Jenkins in particular). Montgomery is able to find a seam and then finishes with some strong power (9 yards after contact and 1 broken tackle). Again, the Bears come out in a power formation and pound the ball successfully.
2. 1st and 10 (Own47): Singleback (10)(Twin TE left), D. Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard. 9... count them... 9 guys in the box on this play. The Bears run the ball left (5 players to block 6 defenders). The offensive line doesn’t get any movement really and TJ Edwards has no trouble stepping up to fill the hole. The beef I have with this play is two-fold. First, lets focus on play design. JP Holtz (who lined up at wing TE) comes across the formation. While this brings Jalen Mills out of the play, it also eliminates an additional blocker play side. I’d personally rather go 5 on 6 with that 6th man being a 6’0" 190 corner than 4 on 5. Now for play call. It’s not good at all. The Bears line up in this power formation which I love, but there’s no adjustment to the 9 guys in the box. For starters, the offense brought in an additional offensive lineman (C. Lucas) who was on the right side of the line. This basically eliminates any chance of throwing the ball to that position, allowing the defense to focus more heavily elsewhere. The positive of bringing in Lucas though is the improved blocking over a TE. A run to the right side would have been a much better call, specifically because they had even numbers going that direction (4 on 4). Additionally, there’s more than a few passing plays that could have been successful in this situation: a play action fake to take a shot down the field to T. Gabriel or to A. Shaheen on a deep crossing route, a play action fake that send Montgomery into the flat and Shaheen across the field for a high low look, or a play action fake left into a roll right that has Shaheen running a deep crossing route and JP Holtz coming across the formation in the backfield into the flat. Any of the play calls I just mentioned were monumentally better than what Nagy called in this situation. I could argue that this play call cost the Bears the game, but it’s going to have to compete with the 3rd down call as well.
3. 2nd down and 9 (Own48): Singleback (21)(Wing TE right), M. Trubisky screen pass dropped by D. Montgomery. The Bears run a play action fake to Montgomery, followed by a fake end around to T. Gabriel. This misdirection really froze the entire Philly defense and this play set up so beautifully. Trubisky drops the ball over the top of the rush right to Montgomery (he couldn’t have handed him the ball any better). J. Daniels has manhandled the only Eagles defender in the vicinity, R. Coward has sealed off the weak side reinforcements, and C. Whitehair is out in front as a lead blocker. This play was coming right into our end zone and believe me when I say, Montgomery would still be running. As much as I just trashed Nagy for the previous play call and design, this was perfect on both accounts. It just wasn’t executed by Montgomery.
4. 3rd down and 9 (Own48): Singleback (11)(Double wing TEs), M. Trubisky pass short right incomplete to A. Shaheen. The Bears run a play action fake to D. Montgomery, but no one bites. The Eagles bring 6 and a stunt up front. The blitz actually gets picked up, but yet again, R. Coward gets eaten alive by Brandon Graham who creates heavy pressure and forces the ball out of Trubisky’s hands. Fletcher Cox also breaks through a J. Daniels block to create secondary pressure. Both Shaheen and JP Holtz run check and release routes and both A. Robinson and T. Gabriel run streaks. Ronald Darby pretty much blankets Gabriel, but Robinson beats Rasul Douglas. Trubisky looks right at Gabriel coming out of the play fake, realizes he's not open and that heavy pressure is coming, so it gets it out to his hot read (which was Shaheen). Where to start with this play? First off, why on 3rd and 9 do you have your two backup TEs in the game (one of which is a primary blocker)? You shouldn't have two TEs in the game in this situation, and neither Holtz nor Shaheen should have been on the field. That leads to a second issue: why are you under center in a double wing formation? Of all the times Nagy has refused to line up under center, why choose now to stay out of the shotgun? Finally, who is biting on a play action fake on 3rd and 9? Trubisky may have missed Robinson running open down the field on this play because he looked to his right first instead of his left, but this play call was absolutely horrible. I was (and still am) in disbelief over how bad this was.

I hope you enjoyed looking through the play-by-play film analysis. I am always open to hearing rebuttals if you think I analyzed a play incorrectly, or if you just want to talk a little Bears football on a higher level. It remains to be seen if Trubisky is the QB of the future for the Chicago Bears, and I think the team should explore options elsewhere for competition, but I do not think he deserves the reputation that he has been given (both by Bears fans and the national sports media).

Why the Cubs struggles this season can be traced back to the rebuild, and why they should approach this offseason with controlled abandon

2019 has been a frustrating season for the Chicago Cubs organization and fans. A complete inability to win on the road, coupled with mounting injuries to key personnel, and under-performing players have left many scratching their heads and searching for someone to blame.

Much of this blame has been directed at ownership (for not allowing more spending), management (for not signing the right players or signing the wrong ones), or at Joe Maddon (for not doing a better job of handling and motivating the roster). While some of these criticisms are well-earned, its not such a simple blame game. In reality, there is a much larger, underlying problem that is not the fault of any of the aforementioned persons, but is more just an unfortunate byproduct of past decisions.

There are two main issues that work hand-in-hand with one another, and they date back to the rebuild.

During the rebuild, the Cubs put a prime focus on acquiring young bats to populate the farm system. Through the draft, trades, and IFA signings, they were able to acquire some tier 1 talent. However, while these players were considered high potential, many of them were of similar archetypes (big time power coupled with high strikeouts). Fast forward to 2019, the Cubs lineup can mash, but they struggle to get on base consistently and have trouble getting hits when they need them. This approach wasn't a bad idea, especially since some of the prospects developing during this time were thought to eventually develop above average hit tools.

But unfortunately, that's not really how it all panned out.

Prospects like Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ still developed into solid players, but their hit tools never quite came around as expected. Coupled with someone like Albert Almora (who has never quite developed into the hitter that people had hoped), the Cubs have been left with a desperate need for more contact driven hitters (especially near the top of the order).

This hitter-heavy approach also had a secondary drawback to it:

Lack of an adequate in-house developed pitching pipeline.

From 2012-2017, here is the full list of the names inside the Cubs top 10 prospects that were pitchers:

Arodys Vizcaino (traded to Atl for Tommy La Stella)
Trey McNutt (never appeared in Majors)
Pierce Johnson (out of baseball)
Carl Edwards Jr. (traded to SD for Brad Wieck)
Duane Underwood (currently in AAA Iowa)
Dylan Cease (traded to CHW for Jose Quintana)
Oscar De La Cruz (currently in AA Tennessee)
Trevor Clifton (currently in AAA Iowa)
Jose Albertos (currently in A South Bend, forgotten how to throw strikes)
Adbert Alzolay (currently in AAA Iowa)
Alex Lange (traded to Det fro Nicholas Castellanos)
Brendon Little (currently in A+ Myrtle Beach)
Thomas Hatch (traded to Tor for David Phelps)
Justin Steele (currently in AA Tennessee)

This list not only highlights the lack of pitching depth the Cubs farm system had during this time period, but also the lack of quality arms. Such a void in this department forced the Cubs to seek external solutions to their pitching problems since 2016. This has also led to some of the financial constraints as well as the organization signed players like Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow to try and plug holes in the roster.

Now all of that being said, the Cubs have since addressed their pitching deficiencies on the farm, and that is something that could pay dividends in the coming seasons. There is still a lack of good contact hitters in the system, but there is some promise currently developing. Though, these both should continue to be addressed in the near future.

In reality, the Cubs struggles in 2019 (and 2018 really) are just a byproduct of the rebuild and winning the title in 2016. Certain areas may not have been focused on as much as they should have been, and other areas were made weaker by aggressive trades (see Aroldis Chapman and Jose Quintana deals; note: I am not re-litigating either of those trades. I actually still approve of both of them, but their effects can be felt).

So what should the Cubs do this offseason? Well I don't think any drastic changes are in order. The roster doesn't need to be blown up and we don't need 15 new faces showing up to Wrigley next season. But I do believe the Cubs need a slight change of course with their roster approach.

Currently, the roster is nothing more than the sum of its parts (actually even less so in some instances). The biggest problem facing the current 40-man roster is too much redundancy. For example, Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber have very similar hitting profiles as big time power bats with lots of Ks and BBs. By themselves, that's not a bad approach in this day and age. But combined with a rest of a lineup that is almost identical to that? Now that's a problem.

The same goes for the bullpen and rotation: plenty of guys who can get outs and perform admirably, but not a whole lot of power arms/guys with swing and miss stuff. Hence some (but not all) of the pitching woes and inconsistency observed during the last two seasons.

This offseason, the Cubs should find a way to reduce the redundancy on their roster by trading away duplicitous players for controllable pieces who fill specific roles (like top of the order, contact driven hitters with a little bit of pop). There are definitely deals that could be made with different teams who have what the Cubs need, and themselves want what the Cubs are selling. I plan on doing a much bigger piece on the offseason as a whole when it comes time, so I won't get into many specifics right now.

In the meantime, there's still plenty of baseball left to be played. I firmly believe the Cubs have enough talent on paper to make a playoff run, but the team this season hasn't been performing like it. We shall see how things pan out in the coming weeks.

Why Yu Darvish is actually having a dominant season



Yu Darvish’s first season in Cubbie blue certainly didn’t go to plan. After signing a 6-year $126M contract during the 2017-2018 offseason, Darvish stumbled out of the gate in 2018 (8 starts with a 4.95 ERA) before landing in the IL with an elbow issue. When he finally looked like he may get back to Wrigley, Darvish left one of his rehab starts with pain and was subsequently shut down for the rest of the season.

Many fans wanted to jump ship on Darvish following an extremely disappointing first season. That list only grew through his first 8 starts of 2019 (5.40 ERA 1 QS 8.10 BB/9). Others, like myself, urged fans to stay the course. Darvish had a long history of success in Texas (a ballpark notoriously hard to pitch in) and some things just didn’t seem right. His walk rate and fastball command were not what they once were. Had he diminished as a pitcher? Was he still injured? Was he not locked in mentally?

Or maybe...

Was he just a bit rusty?

Coming off 186 innings and a WS run in 2017, Darvish only tossed 40 (injury-riddled) major league innings in 2018. For a guy who hadn’t thrown healthy major league innings since October 2017, it honestly isn’t surprising he struggled to find a rhythm early in 2019. Think that’s just an excuse? Check out what happened on May 15th:

In his 9th start of the season, Darvish went into Great American Ballpark (another hitter friendly park) and fanned 11 Reds in 5.1 IP. Best part:

He walked no one

In fact, he hasn’t really walked anyone since then. Since that May 15th start, Darvish’s walk rate is only 1.70 BB/9 (plummeting his season to only 3.48) while still maintaining a filthy 10.76 K/9. He has also started to work deeper into games (6+ IP in 12/16 starts, 6 QS) and is starting to look more like the pitcher everyone expected when he signed that large contract just a season and a half ago. 

While it might be tempting to look at his 4.06 ERA since that start against the Reds (and his 4.43 season ERA) and not be impressed, there’s one major consideration that needs to be taken:

His insane HR/9 rate. 

At 1.77 this season, Darvish’s rate is way above both league average and his career average. So what is causing this?

Well the simple answers would typically point to augmented fly ball or hard contact rates. But therein lies the rub with Darvish:

Both his fly ball rate (33.4%) and hard contact rate (29.6%) are below his career averages. In fact, he’s inducing more ground balls than ever before in his career (47.0%). 

Now with that being said, I will mention that when batters are hitting fly balls against Darvish, his hard contact rate is at a career high (39.6%). Welcome to baseball in 2019. 

Nonetheless, Darvish’s abnormally high HR/FB rate (23.4%, which is insane even for 2019) seems to indicate bad luck more than anything. To understand how well he’s actually been pitching, just take a look at his SIERA (an indicator of what a pitchers true ERA should be. For a good explanation see here) Since that start against the Reds, Darvish sits at a strong 3.37: indicating he’s firing on all cylinders. 

While results on the field are often all that matters, I do firmly believe that there is a lot to love about Yu Darvish’s season. He seems to be finding his groove in Cubbie blue in 2019, especially of late. If he can keep it up, he will certainly be a major asset come October.