Comparing last year's playoff game to this season: Are there differences in how the offense functions?

After doing my deep film review of the Bears/Eagles game earlier this week, I got curious to try and compare how the offense is functioning this season compared to last season.

I think last year's Eagles games is a pretty good one to compare for a couple reasons. For one, the Bears just played the Eagles with both teams having relatively the same personnel. Additionally, the Bears put up 356 yards of total offense in that game (despite only scoring 15 points), so it's a pretty good comparison point to a time when the Bears offense was humming.

So I went through that game film and took down some information, and then I watched/re-watched the game film from the Bears last two games (Chargers/Eagles). Here's a breakdown of some of the things I found:

Shotgun plays:

• Playoff game: 52 play calls (42 pass plays)(87% of play calls)
• M. Trubisky: 23/38 (+4-5 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 297 yards and a TD, 2 scrambles for 10 yards and 2 coverage sacks, 8 mistakes (19% of dropbacks) by Trubisky by my count (2 poor reads and 6 missed throws)
• 7 rushes for 45 yards (12 on a run against prevent D and 21 on a reverse: 5 for 12 yards without)
• Last 2 games: 72 play calls (51 pass plays)(65% of play calls)
• M. Trubisky: 25/42 (+2-3 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 280 yards and an INT, 4 scrambles for 19 yards and 6 sacks (1 coverage, 1 bad taken), 6 mistakes (12% of dropbacks) by Trubisky by my count (fumble on a sack, INT thrown, 3 missed throws, 1 bad sack taken)
• 18 rushes for 86 yards (55 on one carry: 17 for 31 without)

The Bears have actually ran a lower percentage of their plays out of the shotgun in this comparison, which I wasn't initially expecting. In the last two games, there has been a more concerted effort to run the ball overall, leading to more carries out of the shotgun. That being said, the Bears had 17 of those runs in the Chargers game, showcasing a shift in the play calling to focus on more under center and downhill runs. One thing that does stand out to me is the lower percentage of "mistakes" that Trubisky is making. Of course, this number can be subjective. What I based it on is any throws that Trubisky missed an open WR or made a poor read to throw into coverage, along with any turnovers or sacks that he took that shouldn't have happened. Now there are always things that could be more on him that could be counted (poor audibles, protection adjustments, etc.) so I don't want this to sound like he's not making mistakes. The point was merely to compare between the games, and I stayed consistent with my judgements between them. One thing that also stands out is the sheer number of sacks, which I'll get in to next.

Clean pocket pass plays:

• Playoff game: 38/43 pass plays (88% of dropbacks)
• M. Trubisky was 22/35 (+3-4 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 280 yards and a TD, 1 scramble for 4 yards, 7 mistakes by Trubisky (2 poor reads and 5 missed throws)
• Under pressure: Trubisky was 2/5 for 14 yards, 1 scramble for 6 yards, 1 mistake (a missed throw he should have made)
• Last 2 games: 40/56 pass plays (71% of dropbacks)
• M. Trubisky was 25/37 (+2-3 completions that could have been made by WRs) for 211 yards and an INT, 2 sacks (1 coverage, 1 bad taken), 3 mistakes by Trubisky (INT thrown, missed throw, bad sack taken),
• Under pressure: Trubisky was 2/6 for 4 yards, 3 scrambles for 12 yards and 4 sacks, 1 mistake by Trubisky (a fumble)

Now here is where we are starting to see some differences.We were all thinking it, but now here is the hard proof. Trubisky is definitely under more pressure this season. The offensive line has been struggling mightily this year, and that is certainly contributing to the issues offensively. A near 20% increase in pressures is inexcusable. But why has pressure been so increased? Well from the film, I'll start off by saying that it isn't always just free runners. A lot of the time, the offensive line is able to stay engaged, but they get driven backwards and deposited into Trubisky's lap (see James Daniels on the third play from scrimmage this past Sunday against the Eagles). What I also noticed from the film is that teams are often bringing more pressure overall while pressing the Bears receivers (especially the Eagles). Whether this is just teams forcing the Bears WRs to beat them (and they aren't) or teams forcing Trubisky to speed up his clock and make mistakes is unclear. What I will say is that despite Trubisky's struggles with accuracy and efficiency this season, he has not been picked off much (only 3 so far this season). What can definitively be determined from this data is that Trubisky, like all other QBs, does well with a clean pocket. We just haven't see it that much this season.

Quick passing plays (pass in < 2.3 seconds):

• Playoff game: 12/14 for 127 yards (+1 completion that could have been made by WRs), 1 missed throw by Trubisky
• Last two games: 11/14 for 66 yards (1 incompletion under pressure)

Here is another fundamental difference in the Bears scheme. In the playoff game, the Bears focused on getting the ball out of Trubisky's hands quickly. On top of that, many of the plays called were designed to get WRs open quickly (including a saucy double move by Robinson that went for a 45 yards completion). This season, the Bears haven't done a good job of drawing up plays to get the ball out of Trubisky's hand quickly. Now some of that comes down to adjustments teams have made to Trubisky (which is why the Bears are seemingly seeing more press coverage this season). But at the same time, the Bears have refused to attack consistently down the field to soften up defenses. Part of that has to do with the protection not holding up, but as I just highlighted above, it is possible to attack down the field while still getting the ball out quickly. With that I want to pause for a second for a public service announcement:

RUN A DOUBLE MOVE SOMETIME CHICAGO!!!

-cough-.... Ahem. Ok I'm back

Take a look at this disparity:

Double moves in the playoff game: 3 completions for 101 yards (33% of Trubisky's yards in that game) and a TD. A. Robinson was straight cooking the Eagles secondary in this game on double moves.
Double moves in the last two games: Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada. Negatory. Nothing. Nil.

Ok, ok, I'll stop. But you can clearly see my point. The Bears refusal to attack down the field in any form (especially on double moves) has allowed teams to play more underneath and take away the quick passing game.

This leads me to one final thing I want to touch on that I noticed, specifically while I was watching the playoff game film:

Trubisky's confidence

Listen, we all know he's pretty shaken up right now. He's been destroyed by the national (and local) media and a lot of fans are turning on him. And look, I get it. It has been an ugly season and he hasn't progressed the way everyone wanted (or expected) him to. I'm plenty frustrated at him as well.

But then I watched that playoff film again, and man, he's a different dude in that game. You can just see it in his demeanor in the pocket. He's catching the snap from center, finding his read, and then slinging it. He's making hard pump fakes on double moves that are just freezing defenders. He's making decisive decisions to pull the ball and scramble when necessary. He just looks different in that film. So how do we get that confident kid back?

Well the Bears have to play to Trubisky's strengths (get him and the pocket moving, designed QB runs, double moves [he's actually pretty good at these], and getting the ball out quickly), which they have failed to do all season. And this isn't just because him and the offense will have more success doing those certain things, it's also because when he can do those things well, it builds confidence. And confidence breeds confidence. Then you can get into the more complicated things that Matt Nagy has been trying to run all season that haven't been working. This is how the Bears break out of their slump and get the offense rolling once more:

Let Trubisky be Trubisky