Week 12 NFL and DFS picks

I had another strong week last week (6-1) to push my picks record to 11-3-1. Let’s keep the momentum going:

• Falcons (-3.5) v. Buccaneers
  

I’m buying the Falcons of late, especially their defense. The Bucs are a team in disarray right now, and I think the Falcons can capitalize. 

• Steelers (-6.5) @ Bengals
  

I have my concerns about trusting the Steelers on the road, but the Bengals can make any team look Super Bowl caliber. I think the additional layoff from Pittsburgh’s last game will be beneficial. 

• Dolphins/Browns under 46.5
  

This over/under just seems to be a little too high to me for two offense that have struggled to find consistency this season. These two defenses have also shown some improvement of late. 

• Saints (-9.5) v. Panthers
  

The magic that Kyle Allen had to begin his career as a starter is now gone. Last week, he was demolished by a Falcons defense that is a few steps down from this Saints D. Also, betting the Saints at home is always a pretty safe bet. 

• Jets (+3.5) v. Raiders
  

Here’s my bold pick of the week. I’ve really liked what I’ve been seeing out of the Jets offense the last couple games. They are starting to look more like what everybody thought they would look like before the season started. That coupled with a west coast team traveling cross country for a 1pm eastern start leads me to think an upset is in the works. I’m taking the Jets straight up, so give me those extra 3.5 points. 

• Lions (-4) @ Redskins (over 40)
  

NFL gambling 101: find the team playing the Redskins, and bet them. Victory is assured. Both defenses in this game are terrible, so the over looks tantalizing as well. 

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Matt Ryan ($7900), Sam Darnold ($7400), Nick Foles ($7200)
  

This is my third straight week picking a QB against the Bucs defense. The last two went pretty well. The Bucs are horrible against the pass. As I mentioned above, the Jets offense has been much improved of late, specifically because of Sam Darnold (24.06 ppg in last two). The Raiders pass D is nothing to be afraid of. Make that two straight appearances for Nick Foles in my picks. Last week was a modest performance (18.84 points) and I think he’ll have a better game this week against a weaker pass D (22nd against the pass). Utilize the savings you get from him to spend elsewhere. 

• RB: Le’Veon Bell ($7200), Joe Mixon ($6700), Miles Sanders ($5600)
  

Can you tell I’m buying the Jets this week? Le’Veon Bell hasn’t had a big, explosive game yet this season, but his last three he’s started to find some consistency (15.7 ppg). At his cost, that consistency and upside should be in your lineups. Despite appearances, there is actually one strong fantasy asset in the Bengals offense. Mixon’s volume (averaging 23 touches per game the last 3) gives him a high floor, and his talent gives him high ceiling. Jordan Howard is reportedly out again this week. Miles Sanders had a lion share of the snaps at RB last week. The Seahawks front 7 is pretty decent, but at his cost I like the opportunity to garner sneaky value from Sanders this week. 

• WR: Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley ($8400/$6700), DJ Chark ($7000), Jamison Crowder ($6500), Jordan Matthews ($4500)
  

Did I mention the Bucs pass D is atrocious? Stack Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley (or both) with Matt Ryan this week and enjoy the fireworks. Nick Foles gives a huge boost to DJ Chark’s fantasy potential. Keep expecting big things out of that connection. Jamison Crowder is that guy nobody talks about, but continually puts up big numbers. In his last three games, he’s averaged 17 ppg, making him a low cost option that can boom big. If you really wanna dig deep this week, take a look at Jordan Matthews. He had 6 targets in his first game with the Eagles last week. 

• TE: Zach Ertz ($6100), Ryan Griffin ($5600), Vance McDonald ($5300)
  

Alston Jeffery looks like he’s going to play, but I’m not wavering from Zach Ertz. Ertz has 11 targets in each of the last two games, and now he gets to face a subpar secondary in Seattle that is 27th against TEs. Ryan Griffin is a true boom or bust guy. He could easily go over 20 points in a game, but he can also go for 2. Choose at your own risk. Vance McDonald should have the opportunity to garner more targets this week with Juju Smith-Schuster being out. You could do worse at this position than him. 

• DST: Steelers ($5000), Falcons ($4300)
  

Find defense playing against the Bengals. Pick said defense. If you want an upside defense at a lower cost, take a look at the Falcons. They’ve averaged 18 ppg the last two weeks (one of those at the Saints) and now they get Jameis Winston: king of all things turnovers and sacks.