Here are my thoughts on this weekend’s NFL matchups ATS and some DFS picks to look out for.
NFL:
Call this one a little home cooking, but I’m feeling a bounce back from the whole Bears team this weekend. Detroit’s incredibly weak defense opens the door for a confidence building game for the offense.
Road divisional game is no worry for the more talented and explosive Ravens. The Ravens defense will likely feast on Ryan Finley in his first career NFL start.
- Bills (+3) @ Browns (under 40.5)
I’m honestly not even sure how the Browns are favored in this game. Road game or not, the Bills are a better all around football team. Give me the Bills straight up in a low scoring affair.
- Cardinals @ Buccaneers over 52
This game will turn into a shootout early with two very high powered offenses playing two very bad defenses. Make this bet and then just pray "bad Jameis" doesn’t show up.
- Steelers (+4) vs. Rams (over 43.5)
The Rams coming off of a bye may be enticing, but I’m not loving them as 4 point favorites on the road against a suddenly hot Steelers team (even without James Conner). I actually have the Steelers straight up in this game, but even if the Rams win I think a FG victory is within range for the cover. I also like the over (43.5 should be doable for these two offenses)
Minnesota will be without Adam Thielen again this week and Dallas does a solid job against the run defensively. I’m thinking this one stays relatively low scoring, maybe both teams break into the 20s, but stays under.
DFS picks (with FanDuel prices):
- QB: Kyler Murray ($7700), Jameis Winston ($7900), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7100)
With one of the highest over/unders on this week’s slate, I’m buying both QBs in the shootout between the Cardinals and Buccaneers. If you’re looking for a DFS longshot, Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a solid bet. He’s been over 20 points in 2 of his last 3.
- RB: David Montgomery ($6400), Devin Singletary ($6700), Kalen Ballage ($4600)
The Bears have made a strong commitment to running the football the last two weeks, and there’s nobody else getting the carries besides Montgomery (over 20 points each of the last two weeks) against a very bad Lions run D. Devin Singletary now looks like the clear top dog in the Buffalo backfield after a 20 carry performance last week. He’s explosive and he faces a weak Cleveland run D this week. If you really want to dive deep this week, Kalen Ballage is the starting RB for the Miami Dolphins and he doesn’t really have a lot of competition. He probably won’t rack up the yards, but if he falls into the end zone once for a TD he’s a nice little piece.
- WR: Zach Pascal ($6400), Christian Kirk ($5700), DeVante Parker ($5800)
Zach Pascal has had a couple of strong performcanes of late. With TY Hilton out, he’s stepped in to get a larger target share and made it work, regardless of who is under center. Christian Kirk looks to be fully healthy and plays a horrible Bucs secondary. He’s a nice stacking player to combo with Murray this week. DeVante Parker seems to finally be finding his groove in Miami. Since Fitzpatrick has taken over, he’s really started to shine. His price is too nice to pass up this week.
- TE: Austin Hooper ($6600), OJ Howard ($5000)
The Saints are a tough defense, but Hooper has been as solid as them come in fantasy this season. And he won’t set you back too much. Call it a hunch, but I think OJ Howard could have his best game of the season this weekend. Arizona is bad against TEs. Stack with Jameis at your own risk.
Turnovers and sacks. Buffalo forces them, and the Browns give them up. Spend the little extra coin to get these guys this week.
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