Week 13 NFL ATS and DFS Picks

Last week was just straight up not a pretty weekend for my football-wise. My fantasy and gambling picks did not go well at all. But we get right back up on that horse and give it another go. 

Last week: 2-5 Overall: 13-8-1

• Jets (-3) @ Bengals
  

I really like the brand of football the Jets have been playing of late. Sam Darnold is in a groove and the defense has been improving. Andy Dalton takes the reins back for the Bengals in offense, but I don’t think that matters much. 

• Titans (+1) @ Colts
  

This game has big time playoff implications on both sides. Winner stays in the hunt, loser is likely done. The Titans offense has been humming ever since they switched over to Ryan Tannehill and the Colts offense has struggled without TY Hilton. That’s enough for me. 

• Packers (-6.5) @ Giants (under 45)
  

I’m toeing a precarious line here with this spread and under pick, but I’m going to lean towards the Giants offense continuing to struggle and the Packers to be inconsistent. 

• Browns/Steelers under 39
  

This is going to be a UFC fight, not a football game. I don’t expect to see a whole lot of offense in this game. Just a lot of guys lining up and smacking each other in the mouth. 

• Buccaneers/Jaguars over 47
  

Death. Taxes. And Buccaneers games hitting the over. Listen, the formula is simple: the Bucs offense is high powered and their defense stinks. Sprinkle in some decent firepower from the opposing offense and you’ve got yourself a nice over. 

• Patriots/Texans under 46
  

I seriously considered taking the Texans (+3) here as a bold pick, but I don’t have those kind of stones lol. Instead I’ll stick with the under. The Patriots have been unimpressive on offense of late and I think they can stifle the Houston offense enough to keep the game low scoring. 

• Seahawks (-3) v. Vikings (under 50)
  

These picks are both predicated on “primetime Kirk Cousins” showing up. Until I see him perform admirably in a primetime matchup, I’m gonna pick against him and his team.  

DFS Picks (with FanDuel prices)

• QB: Patrick Mahomes ($8600), Sam Darnold ($7600), Carson Wentz ($7300)
  

Last time the Chiefs played the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes absolutely torched them on the road. Expect more of the same coming out of a bye and at home. Don’t look now, but Sam Darnold is blossoming right before our eyes. He gets another soft matchup against the Bengals this week. I understand if Carson Wentz’s recent struggles scare you off, but the Dolphins secondary is decimated and he also gets Alshon Jeffery back this week. 

• RB: Aaron Jones ($8000), Le’Veon Bell ($7300), Miles Sanders ($5800)
  

Aaron Jones has been a stud all season when he gets to face weak defenses. The Giants should offer a nice bounce back opportunity. I bet on a Le’Veon breakout last week and it didn’t exactly happen despite modest results. Let’s try this one again against a horrible Bengals run D. Tried betting on Miles Sanders last week as well and the results were just ok. Jordan Howard is our yet again and the Dolphins offer up a golden opportunity for a big game. 

• WR: Cooper Kupp ($7800), DJ Moore ($6800), Dede Westbrook ($5700)
  

The Cardinals have not been very good against slot receivers all season. Despite Jared Goff’s struggles, I like the upside of Kupp this week. DJ Moore has been on an absolute tear of late. His current price feels like highway robbery. Dede Westbrook has had 15 targets over the last two weeks with Nick Foles under center and has a weak Buccaneers secondary across from him this week. 

• TE: Travis Kelce ($7100), Darren Waller ($6100), Tyler Higbee ($5500)
  

Travis Kelce tends to abuse the Oakland Raiders and their secondary. He’s worth the price this week. On the other side of the field, Darren Waller gets a promising matchup to bust out of his recent slump. Normally, I would pass on Tyler Higbee who is stepping in for the Gerald Everett, but the Cardinals are dead last against TEs in fantasy so the upside is too good to pass up. 

• DST: Chargers ($3900), Steelers ($3700)
  

The Broncos aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire offensively this season. Should be plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers for a hungry Chargers defense this week. As I mentioned above, I think the Browns/Steelers is going to be a bloodbath this week. Both defenses should be intriguing picks this week, but the Steelers price tag is tantalizing.